{"id":50131,"date":"2026-06-25T02:17:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T02:17:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%eb%b2%a0%ed%8c%85-%ec%a7%80%ec%86%8d%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94-161-60%ec%84%a0-%eb%b6%80%ea%b7%bc-%eb%b3%b4%ed%95%a9\/"},"modified":"2026-06-25T02:17:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T02:17:31","slug":"%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%eb%b2%a0%ed%8c%85-%ec%a7%80%ec%86%8d%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94-161-60%ec%84%a0-%eb%b6%80%ea%b7%bc-%eb%b3%b4%ed%95%a9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%eb%b2%a0%ed%8c%85-%ec%a7%80%ec%86%8d%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94-161-60%ec%84%a0-%eb%b6%80%ea%b7%bc-%eb%b3%b4%ed%95%a9\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ubca0\ud305 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4 161.60\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc \ubcf4\ud569\u2026\uc77c\ubcf8 \uac1c\uc785 \uacbd\uacc4\uac10\uc5d0 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud3ed \uc81c\ud55c"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uc77c \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \ucd08\uae30 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c 161.60 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\ud569\uad8c\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c8\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ud55c\uce35 \uacac\uace0\ud574\uc9c0\uba70 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud55c \ubc18\uba74, \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 \uac1c\uc785 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacbd\uacc4\uac00 \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud588\ub2e4. Fed\ub294 6\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.50~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00\ub3c4 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \uc9c4\ud589\ub410\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 7\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ucd5c\uc18c 25bp \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 37.4%\ub85c, \uc77c\uc8fc\uc77c \uc804 8.5%\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \ub6f0\uc5c8\ub2e4. 9\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131(\uc554\uc2dc \ud655\ub960)\ub3c4 29.1%\uc5d0\uc11c 70.2%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 \uc678\ud658 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud560 \uc900\ube44\uac00 \ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uace0, \uac00\ud0c0\uc57c\ub9c8 \uc0ac\uc4f0\ud0a4 \uc7ac\ubb34\uc0c1\uacfc \uc2a4\ucf67 \ubca0\uc13c\ud2b8 \ubbf8 \uc7ac\ubb34\uc7a5\uad00 \uac04 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc5d4\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BOJ) 6\uc6d4 \u2018\uc758\uacac \uc694\uc57d(Summary of Opinions)\u2019\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \ud655\uc0b0\ub418\uace0 \uadfc\uc6d0 CPI\uac00 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ub2e4\uc218\uc758 \uc704\uc6d0\uc774 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Yield Differentials and Fed Rate Expectations Drive USD\/JPY<\/h3>\n

\ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\uc778\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc591\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uaca9\ucc28\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 Fed\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc810\uc810 \ub354 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac 70.2%\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 BOJ\ub294 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \ucd08\uc785\uc5d0 \ubd88\uacfc\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774\ucc98\ub7fc \ud070 \uae08\ub9ac(\uc218\uc775\ub960) \uaca9\ucc28\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \ubcf4\uc720\uc758 \ub9e4\ub825\uc744 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub192\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub2e4\ub9cc \ud658\uc728\uc774 161.60 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \ud604 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \uc77c\ubcf8 \ub2f9\uad6d\uc758 \uac1c\uc785 \uc0ac\uc815\uad8c\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uc811 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc640 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4. \uac00\ud0c0\uc57c\ub9c8 \uc0ac\uc4f0\ud0a4 \uc7ac\ubb34\uc0c1\uacfc \uc2a4\ucf67 \ubca0\uc13c\ud2b8 \uc7ac\ubb34\uc7a5\uad00 \uac04 \ucd5c\uadfc \ub17c\uc758\ub294 \uc778\ub0b4\uc2ec\uc774 \ud55c\uacc4\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uba85\ud655\ud55c \uc2e0\ud638\ub2e4. \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uac00\ud30c\ub978 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uacbd\uc6b0, \ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 \uc5d4 \ub9e4\uc218(\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub9e4\ub3c4) \ud615\ud0dc\uc758 \uc9c1\uc811 \uac1c\uc785\uc5d0 \ub098\uc124 \uc758\uc9c0\ub97c \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc548 \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Asymmetric Risks and the Role of Options in USD\/JPY Trading<\/h3>\n

\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc644\ub9cc\ud558\uac8c\ub294 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, \ud558\ub77d\uc740 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uae09\uaca9\ud558\uace0 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc804\uac1c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ube44\ub300\uce6d\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \uc870\uc131\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud604\ubb3c \uae30\ubc18\uc758 \ub2e8\uc21c \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \ubcf4\uc720\ub294 \uc810\uc810 \ub354 \uc704\ud5d8\ud574\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ub300\uc2e0, USD \ud48b\/JPY \ucf5c \uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218 \ub4f1 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \uc190\uc2e4 \ud55c\ub3c4\ub97c \uba85\ud655\ud788 \ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub3cc\ubc1c\uc801 \ubc18\uc804\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0 \ub610\ub294 \uc218\uc775 \uae30\ud68c \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uc811\uadfc\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY \uc635\uc158\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uae34\uc7a5\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uba70 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac 1\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30 ATM(\ub4f1\uac00\uaca9) \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 10.2% \ubd80\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c, \ubd88\uacfc \uba87 \uc8fc \uc804 8% \uc548\ud30e\uc5d0\uc11c \ub192\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4. \ud658\uc728\uc774 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4\uba74 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5\ub3c4 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \ub3d9\ubc18\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

2022\ub144\uacfc 2024\ub144\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub358 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uac1c\uc785 \uc0ac\ub840\uc5d0\uc11c\ucc98\ub7fc, \ud658\uc728\uc774 \uc218 \uc2dc\uac04 \ub0b4 \ucd5c\ub300 5\uc5d4\uac00\ub7c9 \uae09\ub77d\ud55c \uc804\ub840\ub97c \uc0c1\uae30\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. 2024\ub144 4\uc6d4 29\uc77c\uc5d0\ub294 \uac1c\uc785 \uc758\uc2ec \uc774\ud6c4 USD\/JPY\uac00 \ud558\ub8e8 \ub9cc\uc5d0 160\uc744 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c 155 \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc0ac\ub840\ub294 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84\uc774 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc18c\uba78\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uba70, \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc5d0\ub294 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \ud48b \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ubcd1\ud589\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uc131\uc744 \uc7ac\ucc28 \uac15\uc870\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 \u2014 VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4 161.60 \ubcf4\ud569, Fed \ub9e4\ud30c \uc2e0\ud638\uc5d0 7\u00b79\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300 \uae09\ub4f1. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc77c\ubcf8 \uac1c\uc785 \uacbd\uacc4\uc640 BOJ \uc778\uc0c1\ub860\uc774 \uc0c1\ub2e8 \uc81c\ud55c. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uc18d \uc635\uc158 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \ud544\uc694.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50130,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50131","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50131"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50131\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50130"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}