{"id":49906,"date":"2026-06-20T02:22:36","date_gmt":"2026-06-20T02:22:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0%ec%97%90-%eb%94%b0%eb%a5%b8-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ea%b2%a9%ec%b0%a8-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80-%ec%86%8d-pce-%eb%b0%9c%ed%91%9c-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90\/"},"modified":"2026-06-20T02:22:36","modified_gmt":"2026-06-20T02:22:36","slug":"%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0%ec%97%90-%eb%94%b0%eb%a5%b8-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ea%b2%a9%ec%b0%a8-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80-%ec%86%8d-pce-%eb%b0%9c%ed%91%9c-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0%ec%97%90-%eb%94%b0%eb%a5%b8-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ea%b2%a9%ec%b0%a8-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80-%ec%86%8d-pce-%eb%b0%9c%ed%91%9c-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uc900 \ub9e4\ud30c \uae30\uc870\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28 \ud655\ub300 \uc18d PCE \ubc1c\ud45c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4 13\uac1c\uc6d4\ub798 \uace0\uc810 \ubd80\uadfc \uc720\uc9c0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\ub294 \uc8fc \ud6c4\ubc18 13\uac1c\uc6d4\ub798 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uc120 \ub4a4 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc\uc744 \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638 \uae09\uc99d\uc774\ub77c\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870\uac00 \ub354 \uae34\ucd95\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uc124\uba85\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC)\uac00 6\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ud1a4\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud55c \uc774\ud6c4, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub825\uc740 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc774 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28\uc5d0 \ub354 \ud06c\uac8c \ub9de\ucdb0\uc838 \uc654\ub2e4. \uc789\uae00\ub79c\ub4dc\uc740\ud589(BoE)\uacfc \uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4\uad6d\ub9bd\uc740\ud589(SNB)\uc740 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\uace0, \uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(ECB)\uc740 2023\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \uccab \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ub2e8\ud589\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>Fed\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.75%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(dot plot)\uac00 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub418\uba70 \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\uac00 \ubcc0\ud654\ud588\ub2e4. \uc911\uac04\uac12\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc\uc5d0\ub294 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c 12:30 GMT \ubc1c\ud45c\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec\uc774\ub2e4. 1\ubd84\uae30 GDP 3\ucc28 \ucd94\uc815\uce58\uc640 5\uc6d4 \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(PCE) \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uacf5\uac1c\ub41c\ub2e4. GDP\ub294 \ucd08\uae30\uce58 2.0%\uc5d0\uc11c 1.6%\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac08 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba70, \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE\ub294 \uc804\uc6d4 0.2%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0.3%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud560 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4. \uae30\uc220\uc801 \ub808\ubca8\ub85c\ub294 101.00\uacfc 102.00\uc774 \uc800\ud56d\uc120, 100.50\uacfc 100.00\uc774 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub860\ub418\uba70, 50\uc77c\u00b7200\uc77c EMA\uac00 \uacb9\uce58\ub294 99.00 \ubd80\uadfc\ub3c4 \uc8fc\ubaa9 \uad6c\uac04\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 5\uc6d4 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 CPI\ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 4%\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uace0\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Yield Differentials And Policy Divergence<\/h3>\n<p>\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc758 \ubc30\uacbd\uc740 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud558\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9b4 \uc758\uc9c0\uac00 \uc788\ub294 \ubc18\uba74 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc740 \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\ub97c \uc804\ud615\uc801\uc778 \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28(\uc218\uc775\ub960 \uaca9\ucc28) \uac70\ub798\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 2\ub144\ubb3c \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44\uc640 \ub3c5\uc77c \uad6d\ucc44(bund) \uac04 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac 150bp\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uc120 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc744 \ucd94\uad6c\ud558\ub294 \uc790\uae08 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ubcf4\uc720 \ub9e4\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c4\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(PCE) \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd94\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubbf8 \ub178\ub3d9\ud1b5\uacc4\uad6d(BLS)\uc774 5\uc6d4 CPI \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44\ub97c 4.1%\ub85c \ubc1c\ud45c\ud558\uba70 \ubb3c\uac00 \ub454\ud654\uac00 \uc644\uace0\ud55c \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc778 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294 PCE \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd94\uac00 \uac00\uc18d\uc774 \ud655\uc778\ub41c\ub2e4\uba74 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1\uc740 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uae30\uc815\uc0ac\uc2e4\ud654\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub2e8\uc77c \uc218\uce58\uac00 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138(\ub871) \uad00\uc810\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud574\uc8fc\uac70\ub098, \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \ub7a0\ub9ac\uac00 \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138\uc744 \uc55e\uc9c8\ub800\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc904 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Trading Strategies And Market Outlook<\/h3>\n<p>\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uac15\uc138 \ud30c\uc0dd \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0 \uc911\uc774\ub2e4. \uc608\ucee8\ub300 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \ub9e4\uc218\ub85c, \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\ub97c 101.50~102.00 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucd94\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4 \uc0c1\ud488\uc740 PCE \ubc1c\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc0c1\ubc29 \ub3cc\ud30c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4, \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\ud558\uac8c \ub098\uc62c \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc190\uc2e4 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc815\uc758\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc7a5\uc810\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 100.00 \ub808\ubca8\uc744 \uac15\uc138 \uc775\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc800(\ub178\ucd9c)\ub97c \uc7ac\uac80\ud1a0\ud558\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uae30\uc900\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ubc88 \uc815\ucc45 \uad34\ub9ac\ub294 1970\ub144\ub300 \ud6c4\ubc18\ucc98\ub7fc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc6b0\ub824 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc5f0\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\uc5ec\uae08 \uae34\ucd95\uc744 \uac15\uc694\ud588\ub358 \uacfc\uac70 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uacfc \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\uac8c \ub290\uaef4\uc9c4\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58 \ud234(FedWatch Tool)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 9\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc554\ubb35 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ud55c \ub2ec \uc804 20%\uc5d0\uc11c 60%\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uc130\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc\uc758 \uc2f8\uc6c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc758\uc9c0\ub97c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4, 13\uac1c\uc6d4 \uace0\uc810 \ud6c4 \uc228\uace0\ub974\uae30. \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0\ubcf4\ub2e4 \u2018Fed \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95\u2019 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub3d9\ub825. \ub2e4\uc74c\uc8fc GDP\u00b7\uadfc\uc6d0PCE\uac00 \ubd84\uc218\ub839\uc774\uba70 \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28 \ud655\ub300\ub85c 101~102 \ub3cc\ud30c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc8fc\ubaa9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47725,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49906","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49906"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49906\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47725"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49906"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49906"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49906"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}