{"id":49805,"date":"2026-06-18T10:22:46","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T10:22:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ed%8c%8c%ec%9a%b4%eb%93%9c%ed%99%94-%eb%82%99%ed%8f%ad-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b6%80-%eb%a7%8c%ed%9a%8c%ed%96%88%ec%a7%80%eb%a7%8c-%e8%8b%b1-%ec%a4%91%ec%95%99%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95-%ec%95%9e\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T10:22:46","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T10:22:46","slug":"%ed%8c%8c%ec%9a%b4%eb%93%9c%ed%99%94-%eb%82%99%ed%8f%ad-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b6%80-%eb%a7%8c%ed%9a%8c%ed%96%88%ec%a7%80%eb%a7%8c-%e8%8b%b1-%ec%a4%91%ec%95%99%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95-%ec%95%9e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ed%8c%8c%ec%9a%b4%eb%93%9c%ed%99%94-%eb%82%99%ed%8f%ad-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b6%80-%eb%a7%8c%ed%9a%8c%ed%96%88%ec%a7%80%eb%a7%8c-%e8%8b%b1-%ec%a4%91%ec%95%99%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95-%ec%95%9e\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud654, \ub099\ud3ed \uc77c\ubd80 \ub9cc\ud68c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \u82f1 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uacb0\uc815 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 2\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc800\uc810 \uadfc\ucc98\uc11c \ub4f1\ub77d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud654\ub294 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \ub099\ud3ed\uc744 \uc77c\ubd80 \ub9cc\ud68c\ud588\uc73c\ub098, \uc804\uc77c \uae30\ub85d\ud55c \uc57d 2\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc800\uc810 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub800\ub2e4. \uc601\uad6d \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589(BoE) \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc55e\ub450\uace0\ub3c4 \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\uc5d0 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub825\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc2e0\uaddc \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc5d0 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 4\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900 5.0%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.9%\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0, \uc21c\uace0\uc6a9\uc740 \uc774\uc804 14\ub9cc8000\uba85 \uc99d\uac00 \ud6c4 10\ub9cc \uba85 \ub298\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58(8\ub9cc \uba85)\ub294 \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4. \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \uacac\uc870\ud588\ub2e4. \uc0c1\uc5ec\uae08\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ud3c9\uade0 \uc784\uae08\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.4%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\uce58(3.2%) \ub300\ube44 \ub192\uc558\uace0, \uc0c1\uc5ec\uae08\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\ub3c4 4.4%\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc740 5\uc6d4 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ubcf4\ud569\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud55c \ub370 \ub530\ub77c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \ud3c9\ud654 \ud569\uc758\ub85c \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc1fc\ud06c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc7ac\uc790\uadf9 \uc6b0\ub824\ub3c4 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc644\ud654\ub410\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed)\uc774 \uc218\uc694\uc77c \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc \uccb4\uc81c \uccab \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ub3d9\uacb0(\u2018hawkish pause\u2019)\uc744 \ub2e8\ud589\ud588\ub2e4. \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ud55c\ud3b8, \uc644\ud654\uc801 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub358 \ubb38\uad6c\ub97c \uc0ad\uc81c\ud558\uba70 \uc131\uba85\uc11c\ub97c \uac04\uacb0\ud654\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uc911\ub3d9 \uad00\ub828 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370\uc11c\ub3c4 \uacbd\uae30\uc640 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \ub354 \uacac\uace0\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uac70\uc758 \uc808\ubc18\uc758 \uc704\uc6d0\uc774 \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc774\uc804 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uace0 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uacbd\uacc4\uc2ec \uc18d \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc<\/h3>\n<p>\uc624\ub298(2026\ub144 6\uc6d4 18\uc77c) \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud654\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \ubc18\ub4f1 \ub3d9\ub825\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6c0\uc744 \uacaa\uc73c\uba70 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc800\uc810 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc784\ubc15\ud55c \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 \ud070 \ubca0\ud305\uc744 \uaebc\ub9ac\ub294 \ub370 \ub530\ub978 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubb34\uac70\uc6b4 \ubd84\uc704\uae30\uc774\uba70, \ubc18\ub4f1 \uc2dc\ub3c4\ub294 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \ubb3c\ub7c9\uc5d0 \ub9c9\ud788\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc7ac\ub8cc\ub85c \ubcf4\uc77c \ub9cc\ud55c \ub274\uc2a4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc \uc57d\uc138\ub294 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \uc601\uad6d \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 5.1%\ub85c \uc644\uace0\ud558\uac8c \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc92c\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uacbd\uacc4\uac10\uc744 \uc7ac\ucc28 \ubd80\uac01\uc2dc\ud0a8\ub2e4. \uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc784\uae08 \ud638\uc870\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0\ub294 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uc545\uc7ac\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ub09c\ucc98\ud55c \uad6c\ub3c4\uac00 \ud615\uc131\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubc18\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654\uc5d0 \uc11c\ub450\ub974\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc73c\ub85c, \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ub9e4\ub825\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc57d 3.1% \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ub048\uc801\ud55c(sticky) \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \ucd5c\uadfc \uc5f0\uc900 \uc778\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc758 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30 \ub0b4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc57d\ud654\uc2dc\ucf30\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc758 \uad34\ub9ac(divergence)\uac00 \uc790\uae08 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\uc778\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub300\uc751 \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud560 \ub54c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc\uac04 GBP\/USD\ub294 \ud558\ubc29 \ub610\ub294 \ud6a1\ubcf4\uac00 \u2018\uc800\ud56d\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc801\uc740 \uacbd\ub85c(path of least resistance)\u2019\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud22c\uc790\uc790 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\uac00 \ucd94\uac00 \uc57d\uc138\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub418 \uc190\uc2e4 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294(defined-risk) \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud2b9\ud788 \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \ubcf4\ub0bc \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc720\ud6a8\ud558\ub2e4. \ud658\uc728 \ud558\ub77d \uc2dc \uc218\uc775\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uace0, \uc608\uc0c1 \ubc16 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc774 \ub098\uc624\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc190\uc2e4\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub610\ud55c \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc544\uc9c4 \uc810\uc744 \uc8fc\uc2dc\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c GBP\/USD\ub294 2022\ub144 9\uc6d4 1.03 \ubd80\uadfc\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubc00\ub838\ub358 \uc0ac\ub840\ucc98\ub7fc \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ubcf4\uc778 \ubc14 \uc788\uc5b4, \ud1b5\ud654\uc758 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc7ac\uc870\uc815 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc0c1\uae30\uc2dc\ud0a8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc9c4\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd94\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \ub4f1 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud574 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ucd95\uc18c(\u2018volatility crush\u2019) \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc, \uace0\uc6a9\u00b7\uc784\uae08\uc5d0\ub3c4 \u2018\ub099\ud3ed \ucd95\uc18c\u2019 \uadf8\uccd0\u2026BoE \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd \uc18d \uc800\uc810 \ub9f4\ub3cc\uc544. \ubc18\uba74 Fed \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ub3d9\uacb0\u00b7\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138, GBP\/USD \ud558\ubc29\u00b7\ud6a1\ubcf4 \uc6b0\uc138. \uc635\uc158\uc740 \ud48b\u00b7\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub85c \ub300\uc751.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47809,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc, \uace0\uc6a9\u00b7\uc784\uae08\uc5d0\ub3c4 \u2018\ub099\ud3ed \ucd95\uc18c\u2019 \uadf8\uccd0\u2026BoE \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd \uc18d \uc800\uc810 \ub9f4\ub3cc\uc544. \ubc18\uba74 Fed \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ub3d9\uacb0\u00b7\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138, GBP\/USD \ud558\ubc29\u00b7\ud6a1\ubcf4 \uc6b0\uc138. \uc635\uc158\uc740 \ud48b\u00b7\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub85c \ub300\uc751.\" \/>\n\t<meta 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content=\"\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud654, \ub099\ud3ed \uc77c\ubd80 \ub9cc\ud68c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \u82f1 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uacb0\uc815 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 2\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc800\uc810 \uadfc\ucc98\uc11c \ub4f1\ub77d - VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc, \uace0\uc6a9\u00b7\uc784\uae08\uc5d0\ub3c4 \u2018\ub099\ud3ed \ucd95\uc18c\u2019 \uadf8\uccd0\u2026BoE \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd \uc18d \uc800\uc810 \ub9f4\ub3cc\uc544. \ubc18\uba74 Fed \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ub3d9\uacb0\u00b7\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138, GBP\/USD \ud558\ubc29\u00b7\ud6a1\ubcf4 \uc6b0\uc138. \uc635\uc158\uc740 \ud48b\u00b7\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub85c \ub300\uc751.\" \/>\n\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" 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