{"id":49764,"date":"2026-06-12T22:52:53","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T22:52:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94-%ed%99%98%ec%9c%a8-boj%c2%b7%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%9c-%ec%a3%bc%eb%8f%84-fed-%ed%9a%8c%ec%9d%98-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-160%ec%97%94-%ec%8b%9c%ed%97%98%eb%8c%80\/"},"modified":"2026-06-12T22:52:53","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T22:52:53","slug":"%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94-%ed%99%98%ec%9c%a8-boj%c2%b7%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%9c-%ec%a3%bc%eb%8f%84-fed-%ed%9a%8c%ec%9d%98-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-160%ec%97%94-%ec%8b%9c%ed%97%98%eb%8c%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94-%ed%99%98%ec%9c%a8-boj%c2%b7%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%9c-%ec%a3%bc%eb%8f%84-fed-%ed%9a%8c%ec%9d%98-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-160%ec%97%94-%ec%8b%9c%ed%97%98%eb%8c%80\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4 \ud658\uc728, BOJ\u00b7\uc6cc\uc2dc \uc8fc\ub3c4 Fed \ud68c\uc758 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 160\uc5d4 \uc2dc\ud5d8\ub300\u2026\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\u00b7\uac1c\uc785 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uace0\uc870"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/JPY\ub294 \uae08\uc694\uc77c 160.20\uc5d4 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uba70, \ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BoJ) \uc815\ucc45\uacb0\uc815\uacfc \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc(Kevin Warsh)\uac00 \uc758\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \ucc98\uc74c \uc8fc\uc7ac\ud558\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed) \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uc5d4\ud654\uac00 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc555\ubc15\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac14\ub2e4. BoJ\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\ub294 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ubd80\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc5d4\ud654 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub825\uc774 \uc88c\uc6b0\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 \ub610\ud55c FOMC \uc131\uba85, \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd\uce58, \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac\uc73c\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac00\uba70, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc62c\ud574 \ud6c4\ubc18\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(bias) \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub2e8\uc11c\ub97c \ucc3e\uac8c \ub420 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub2e8\uae30 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0\uc11c USD\/JPY\ub294 4\uc2dc\uac04 \ucc28\ud2b8 \uae30\uc900 160.21\uc5d4\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. 100\uae30\uac04 \ub2e8\uc21c\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0(SMA) 159.72\uc5d4 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud55c \ubc18\uba74, 20\uae30\uac04 SMA 160.35\uc5d4 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\ub418\uba70 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc911\ub9bd\uc801 \ud1a4\uc774 \ud615\uc131\ub410\ub2e4. RSI\ub294 49 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uc704\uce58\ud588\ub2e4. \uc800\ud56d\uc740 160.34\uc5d4\uc744 \uc911\uc2ec\uc73c\ub85c 160.35\uc5d4, 160.38\uc5d4\uc5d0 \ubc00\uc9d1\ud574 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub294 160.17\uc5d4 \uc774\ud6c4 159.96\uc5d4\uc5d0\uc11c \uad00\uce21\ub410\ub2e4. 159.72\uc5d4\uc740 \ub354 \uae4a\uc740 \uae30\uc220\uc801 \ubc14\ub2e5\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Policy Risks and Volatility Ahead of Key Central Bank Meetings<\/h3>\n<p>USD\/JPY\ub294 160.20\uc5d4 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774 \ub808\ubca8\uc740 \uacfc\uac70 \ub2f9\uad6d\uc758 \uac15\ud55c \ubc18\uc751\uc744 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud574 \uc628 \uad6c\uac04\uc774\ub2e4. 2024\ub144 4~5\uc6d4 \ud658\uc728\uc774 160\uc5d4\uc744 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \ub3cc\ud30c\ud588\uc744 \ub54c \uc77c\ubcf8 \uc7ac\ubb34\uc131(MOF)\uc774 \uac1c\uc785\uc5d0 \ub098\uc130\ub358 \uc804\ub840\ub97c \uac10\uc548\ud558\uba74, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub0b4 \uc720\uc0ac\ud55c \uc870\uce58 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uacbd\uacc4 \uc218\uc704\ub97c \ub192\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud658\ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc5c6\ub294 \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \ubcf4\uc720\ub294 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\ub294 \ud655\ub300\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751\uc740 \uc804\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 \uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 2.4%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc758\uc9c0 \uc5c6\uc774 \ub2e8\ubc1c\uc131 \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uadf8\uce5c\ub2e4\uba74 \uc815\ucc45 \uc2e4\ud328\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub3fc \uc5d4\ud654 \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \ub354 \uc2ec\ud654\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801(dovish) \uc778\uc0c1\uc740 \uc608\uc0c1 \ubc16\uc73c\ub85c USD\/JPY\ub97c 162\uc5d4 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \ubc00\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud0dc\ud3c9\uc591 \uac74\ub108 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc\uc758 \uccab FOMC\uc5d0 \uc774\ubaa9\uc774 \uc9d1\uc911\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc804\uc784\uc790\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\uc778 \ud1a4\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 2.9%\ub85c \ub048\uc801\ud55c(sticky) \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801 \uc804\ud658\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud560 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba70 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4. \uc6cc\uc2dc\uc758 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \ub0a8\uc740 \uae30\uac04 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc744 \uc124\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\uac00 \ub420 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Trading Strategies for Elevated Uncertainty<\/h3>\n<p>\uc591\ub300 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \u2018\uc774\uc911 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\u2019\uc740 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131 \ubca0\ud305\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uad6c\ub3c4\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \ud68c\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc5b4\ub290 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774\ub4e0 \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub0bc \uc218 \uc788\ub294 1\uc8fc\ubb3c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle) \ub4f1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\uc218 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uad8c\uace0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. USD\/JPY 1\uc8fc\ubb3c \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 11.8%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub77c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uacbd\uacc4\uc2ec\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>USD\/JPY\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc18c\ud3ed \uac15\uc138(\uc0c1\uc2b9) \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub77c\uba74, \uc0c1\ub2e8 \uc7a0\uc7ac\ub825\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\ub418 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub3c4\ub85d \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ud65c\uc6a9\uc744 \uc81c\uc548\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 \ub354 \uc800\ub834\ud55c \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money) \ud48b\uc744 \uc870\ud569\ud558\uba74, BoJ\uc758 \u2018\uc608\uc0c1 \ubc16 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\u2019 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub098 \ub3cc\ubc1c \uac1c\uc785\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \ub7a0\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ucc38\uc5ec\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc7a0\uc7ac \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>160\uc5d4\ub300 \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4, BoJ\u00b7\uc6cc\uc2dc \uccab FOMC \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \u2018\ucd08\uae34\uc7a5\u2019\u2026\uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\u00b7\ub9e4\ud30c \ud1a4\u00b7\uac1c\uc785 \uacbd\uacc4\uc5d0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300, 1\uc8fc\ubb3c IV 11.8%\u00b7\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4\/\ucf5c\ub85c \ub300\uc751.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47675,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49764","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49764","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49764"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49764\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47675"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49764"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49764"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49764"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}