{"id":49753,"date":"2026-06-12T18:52:40","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T18:52:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%9d%98-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%eb%8d%b0%eb%b7%94-%ed%8f%ac%ec%9b%8c%eb%93%9c-%ea%b0%80%ec%9d%b4%eb%8d%98%ec%8a%a4-%ec%b6%95%ec%86%8c%c2%b7%eb%b3%80%eb%8f%99%ec%84%b1-%ed%99%95\/"},"modified":"2026-06-12T18:52:40","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T18:52:40","slug":"%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%9d%98-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%eb%8d%b0%eb%b7%94-%ed%8f%ac%ec%9b%8c%eb%93%9c-%ea%b0%80%ec%9d%b4%eb%8d%98%ec%8a%a4-%ec%b6%95%ec%86%8c%c2%b7%eb%b3%80%eb%8f%99%ec%84%b1-%ed%99%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%9d%98-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%eb%8d%b0%eb%b7%94-%ed%8f%ac%ec%9b%8c%eb%93%9c-%ea%b0%80%ec%9d%b4%eb%8d%98%ec%8a%a4-%ec%b6%95%ec%86%8c%c2%b7%eb%b3%80%eb%8f%99%ec%84%b1-%ed%99%95\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc6cc\uc2dc\uc758 \uc5f0\uc900 \ub370\ubdd4, \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4 \ucd95\uc18c\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138 \ud3b8\ud5a5 \uc2dc\uc0ac"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ub0b4\uc154\ub110\ubc45\ud06c\uc624\ube0c\uce90\ub098\ub2e4(National Bank of Canada) \uc804\ub7b5\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc218\uc694\uc77c \uc5f4\ub9ac\ub294 \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc(Kevin Warsh) \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC) \uc758\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c\uc11c\uc758 \uccab \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815\uc774, \uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4(Jerome Powell) \ud6c4\uc784\uc790\uac00 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\ub97c \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uc6b4\uc601\ud560\uc9c0\ub97c \uba85\ud655\ud788 \ud558\ub294 \uc790\ub9ac\uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \ubcc0\ud654\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec\uc5d0 \u2018\ucee4\ubba4\ub2c8\ucf00\uc774\uc158\u2019\uacfc \u2018\ubc18\uc751\ud568\uc218(reaction function)\u2019\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. \uc6cc\uc2dc\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub108\ubb34 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud574\uc654\uc73c\uba70, \uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc758 \ub300\ub9ac\ubcc0\uc218\ub85c\uc11c PCE(\uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c) \ubb3c\uac00\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dd\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0(F&#038;E)\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ucd5c\uc120\uc778\uc9c0\uc5d0 \uc758\ubb38\uc744 \uc81c\uae30\ud574\uc654\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \u2018\uc808\uc0ac(trimmed) \ud3c9\uade0\u2019 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \uc120\ud638\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud574\uc654\uace0, \uc774 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub4e4\uc774 \ucd5c\uadfc \u201c\uc0c1\ub2f9\ud788 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc778(quite favourable)\u201d \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc654\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc740\ud589\uc758 \ud574\uc11d\uc740, \uc124\ub839 \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \ubb3c\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \uc544\uc9c1 \uc644\ud654(easing)\uc640 \ubd80\ud569\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc6cc\uc2dc\uac00 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc644\ud654\ub41c \ud1a4\uc73c\ub85c \ud504\ub808\uc774\ubc0d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc804\ub7b5\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \ub610\ud55c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ucc45\ubb34(dual mandate)\uc5d0\uc11c \uac15\uc870\uc810\uc774 \uc7ac\uc870\uc815\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4. \uc6cc\uc2dc\ub294 \uc0ac\ud68c\u00b7\uc815\uce58\u00b7\uae30\ud6c4 \uc774\uc288\ub85c\uc758 \u2018\ubbf8\uc158 \ud06c\ub9ac\ud504(mission creep\u00b7\uc784\ubb34 \ud655\uc7a5)\u2019\ub85c \ube44\uce58\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc744 \ube44\ud310\ud574\uc654\uace0, \uc778\uc900 \uccad\ubb38\ud68c\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd5c\ub300\uace0\uc6a9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud5cc\uc2e0\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud558\uae34 \ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub17c\uc758\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\uc815\uc5d0 \ub354 \ubb34\uac8c\uac00 \uc2e4\ub838\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4(forward guidance)\uac00 \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45 \uc2e4\ucc45\uc758 \uc6d0\uc778\uc774\ub77c\uace0\ub3c4 \ube44\ud310\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uacbd\uc81c\u00b7\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc758 \ube48\ubc88\ud55c \uacf5\uac1c\uac00 \ub2f9\uad6d\uc790\ub4e4\uc744 \uacbd\uc9c1\ub41c \uc2dc\uac01\uc5d0 \ubb36\uc5b4\ub450\uace0 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub300\uc751\uc744 \ub2a6\ucd9c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc774\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ub2f9\uad6d\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ub9d0\uc744 \ub108\ubb34 \ub9ce\uc774 \ud558\uba70, \uc758\uc0ac\uacb0\uc815\uc740 \u201c\ubc29 \uc548(in the room)\u201d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub904\uc838\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc81c\uc548\ud574\uc654\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc0c8 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc815\ucc45 \uc811\uadfc\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc801\uc751<\/h3>\n<p>\ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc\uac00 \uc774\uc81c \uc5f0\uc900\uc744 \uc774\ub044\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub354 \uc608\uce21 \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc815\ucc45 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0 \uc801\uc751\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c \uc218\uc694\uc77c \uadf8\uc758 \uccab \ud68c\uc758\ub294 \uba85\ud655\ud55c \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\ub85c\ubd80\ud130\uc758 \uc774\ud0c8\uc744 \ud655\uc778\uc2dc\ucf30\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc2dc\uadf8\ub110\uc744 \ub9e4\ub9e4\ud558\ub358 \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uc804\uc220\uc774 \ub05d\ub0ac\uc74c\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ubc0f \uc218\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uad6c\uc870\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \ub192\uc544\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\uc81c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubcf4\uc720\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc778 MOVE \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc 115\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ubd88\uacfc \ud55c \ub2ec \uc804 90\ub300 \ucd08\ubc18 \uc800\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc804\ud6c4\ud574 \ub354 \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c\uacfc \uc8fc\uc694 \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddles)\u00b7\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(strangles) \ub4f1 \uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc774\ub97c \uc218\uc775 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \uc0bc\uc544\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uae08\ub9ac, \ub2ec\ub7ec, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucee4\ubba4\ub2c8\ucf00\uc774\uc158\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud568\uc758<\/h3>\n<p>\uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \uc0c1\ubc29\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4\uc838 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. 5\uc6d4 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 PCE \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 2.6%\ub85c \ubb34\ub09c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc6cc\uc2dc\uac00 \uac15\uc870\ud574\uc628 \uc808\uc0ac\ud3c9\uade0 PCE\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 3.1%\ub85c \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4 \uadf8\uac00 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish) \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc9c0\uc18d\ud560 \u2018\uba85\ubd84\u2019\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc644\uace0\ud558\uac8c \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb34\ub97c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uba70, \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120\uc758 \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc6b8\uae30(tilt)\ub294 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud638\uc7ac\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 106.50\uc744 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc720\ub7fd\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\ub824\uc9c0\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \ucd94\uac00 \uac15\uc138 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc720\ub85c\uc640 \uc5d4 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub2e8\uae30 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \ud68c\uc758 \uac04 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc778\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc758 \uc7a6\uc740 \uc5f0\uc124\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud574 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uac00\uc774\ub4dc\ubc1b\uc744 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub2e4. \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \u201c\ubc29 \uc548\u201d\uc5d0\uc11c \uacb0\uc815\ub418\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ucee4\ubba4\ub2c8\ucf00\uc774\uc158 \uc2a4\ud0c0\uc77c\uc740 \uacf5\uc2dd FOMC \uc131\uba85\uacfc \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac\uc758 \uc911\uc694\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uc778\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2008\ub144 \uc774\uc804\ucc98\ub7fc, \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 \uba85\uc2dc\uc801 \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ubb38\uad6c\uc758 \ubbf8\ubb18\ud55c \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0\uc11c \uc815\ucc45 \uc804\ud658\uc744 \ud574\ub3c5\ud574\uc57c \ud588\ub358 \uc2dc\uae30\ub97c \uc5f0\uc0c1\uc2dc\ud0a8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\uc6cc\uc2dc Fed \uccab \uc2dc\ud5d8\ub300\u201d\u2026\ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4 \ucd95\uc18c\ub85c \uc815\ucc45 \uc608\uce21\uc131 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uace0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uc804\ub9dd. \uc808\uc0ac\ud3c9\uade0 PCE \uae30\ubc18 \ub9e4\ud30c \ud1a4, \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138, \uace1\uc120 \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218 \uc804\ub7b5 \ubd80\uac01.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47721,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49753"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49753\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47721"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}