{"id":49003,"date":"2026-06-18T04:53:52","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T04:53:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0%c2%b7%ea%b8%b4%ec%b6%95-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0-%ec%9c%a0%ec%a7%80%ec%97%90-%ec%97%94%ed%99%94-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T04:53:52","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T04:53:52","slug":"%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0%c2%b7%ea%b8%b4%ec%b6%95-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0-%ec%9c%a0%ec%a7%80%ec%97%90-%ec%97%94%ed%99%94-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0%c2%b7%ea%b8%b4%ec%b6%95-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0-%ec%9c%a0%ec%a7%80%ec%97%90-%ec%97%94%ed%99%94-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uc900, \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\u00b7\uae34\ucd95 \uae30\uc870 \uc720\uc9c0\uc5d0 \uc5d4\ud654 \uc57d\uc138\u2026\ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4 160\uc5d4\ub300 \uc7ac\ub3cc\ud30c"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uac00 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \uc131\ud5a5\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uace0, \ub300\ub2e4\uc218 \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc774 \uc62c\ud574 \ub9d0 1\ud68c \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc804\ub9dd\ud558\uc790 \uc5d4\ud654\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c8\ub2e4. USD\/JPY\ub294 \uc7a5\uc911 \uc800\uc810 160.11\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc18\ub4f1\ud55c \ub4a4 160.66\uc5d0 \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4. Fed\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9ac\ub294 \ub370 \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \uc7ac\ud655\uc778\ud588\uace0, \uc131\uba85\uc5d0\uc11c \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\ub97c \uc0ad\uc81c\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\uc138\ub97c \u201c\uac15\ud558\ub2e4\u201d\uace0, \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \u201c\uc548\uc815\uc801\u201d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\uc73c\uba70 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 \uac70\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \uc5c6\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc544\uc6b8\ub7ec \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9 \ub4f1\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd\uc694\uc57d(SEP)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac(Fed funds rate) \uc911\uac04\uac12 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uac00 3\uc6d4\uc758 3.4%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.8%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub410\uace0, \ubbf8\uad6d GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 2.2%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 3.3%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub3fc 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c 1.3%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud588\ub2e4. USD\/JPY\ub294 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ud798\uc785\uc5b4 0.14% \uc62c\ub790\uc73c\ub098, \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BOJ)\uc758 \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc785 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud3ed\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud588\ub2e4. \uae30\uc220\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 161.00\uc774 1\ucc28 \uc800\ud56d\uc120\uc774\uba70, \uc774\ud6c4 161.50\uacfc 162.00\uc774 \ucd94\uac00 \uc800\ud56d\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc740 159.73\uacfc 50\uc77c \ub2e8\uc21c\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0(SMA) 159.04\uac00 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uae08\ub9ac\ucc28\uc640 USD\/JPY \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u2019 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc5d4\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc758 \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138 \uadfc\uac70\ub294 \ubd84\uba85\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28\uc774\uba70, \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uac00 3.8%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c \ub9cc\ud07c \uadf8 \uaca9\ucc28\ub294 \ud06c\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4. \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548\uc758 \uc8fc\ub41c \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 USD\/JPY \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc800\ud56d\uc120\uc778 161.00 \uc704\ub85c\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uace0, 161.00 \uc0c1\ub2e8 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\uac00 \uc720\ud6a8\ud574 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc BOJ \uac1c\uc785 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \uc774\uc81c\ub294 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc608\ubbfc\ud55c \uad6d\uba74\uc774\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8 \ub2f9\uad6d\uc740 2024\ub144 160\uc5d4 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5d4 \ubc29\uc5b4\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uac1c\uc785\uc5d0 \ub098\uc120 \uc804\ub840\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ubd88\ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(bull call spread)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \ud55c\uc815\ud558\uace0, \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc7a0\uc7ac \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \uc811\uadfc\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub9dd, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131, \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc \uad00\ub9ac<\/h3>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE 3.3% \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc815\ub2f9\ud654\ud558\uba70, \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc2dc\uac01\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 3% \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc774 \uc27d\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc774 4% \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc5d0\uc11c \uacac\uc870\ud558\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\uc815\uc5d0 \uc6b0\uc120\uc21c\uc704\ub97c \ub458 \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \ub9c8\ub828\ub410\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uac70\uc2dc \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc785 \uc5c6\uc774\ub294 \uc5d4\ud654\uc758 \ucd94\uc138\uc801 \uac15\uc138(\uc9c0\uc18d \ub7a0\ub9ac)\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc0c8 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc758\uc7a5\uc774 \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\ub97c \uc81c\uac70\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ud55c\uce35 \ucee4\uc84c\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ub0b4\uc7ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc2dc\ud0ac \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ud55c \ub2ec \ub0b4 \uc8fc\uc694 \ubbf8\uad6d \ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uace0\uc6a9 \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c \uc804\ud6c4\uc758 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle) \ub4f1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \ucd94\uc138\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \ucd09\ubc1c\ub418\ub294 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>USD\/JPY \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \ubcf4\uc720\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\ub294 \uae0d\uc815\uc801 \uce90\ub9ac(positive carry)\ub294 \uac15\ud55c \uc6b0\ud638 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uba70, \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uc720\uc778\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc124\ub839 BOJ\uac00 \uac1c\uc785\ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \uae08\ub9ac \uc5ed\ud559\uc740 \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \uc870\uc815 \uc2dc \ub9e4\uc218\uc138\ub97c \uc720\uc778\ud560 \uacf5\uc0b0\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud658\uc728 \ud558\ub2e8\uc744 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud574 \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 159.73 \ubd80\uadfc \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc740 \uc2e0\uaddc \ub871 \uc9c4\uc785\uc758 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc778 \uad6c\uac04\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed \u2018\ub3d9\uacb0 \uc18d \ub9e4\ud30c\u2019\uc5d0 \uc5d4\ud654 \uc57d\uc138 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654. \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c 1\ud68c \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\uc804\ub9dd 3.8%\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28 \ud655\ub300, USD\/JPY 160\ub300 \ubc18\ub4f1. 161 \ub3cc\ud30c \uc2dc\ub3c4\uc5d0 BOJ \uac1c\uc785 \uacbd\uacc4. \uc635\uc158\uc740 \ubd88\ucf5c\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc804\ub7b5 \ubd80\uc0c1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47693,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49003\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47693"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}