{"id":49001,"date":"2026-06-18T04:23:50","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T04:23:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-%ec%98%88%ec%83%81%eb%b3%b4%eb%8b%a4-%eb%b9%a0%eb%a5%b8-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ec%8b%9c%ec%82%ac-aud-usd-0-7000%ec%84%a0-%ed%95%98\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T04:23:50","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T04:23:50","slug":"%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-%ec%98%88%ec%83%81%eb%b3%b4%eb%8b%a4-%eb%b9%a0%eb%a5%b8-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ec%8b%9c%ec%82%ac-aud-usd-0-7000%ec%84%a0-%ed%95%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-%ec%98%88%ec%83%81%eb%b3%b4%eb%8b%a4-%eb%b9%a0%eb%a5%b8-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ec%8b%9c%ec%82%ac-aud-usd-0-7000%ec%84%a0-%ed%95%98\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uc900 \uc804\ub9dd, \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ube60\ub978 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc2dc\uc0ac\u2026 AUD\/USD 0.7000\uc120 \ud558\ud68c"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/USD\ub294 6\uc6d4 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed) \uacb0\uc815 \uc774\ud6c4 0.7000 \ubc14\ub85c \uc544\ub798\ub85c \uc7a5\uc911 \uc800\uc810\uc744 \ub0ae\ucdc4\ub2e4. \uacb0\uc815 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0\ub294 0.7050 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc84\ud17c\uc73c\ub098, Fed\uc758 \uc218\uc815 \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd(\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c)\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ubc14\uafb8\uba74\uc11c \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc740 \uc57d 80\ud54d \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 \uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \u2018\uc778\ud558\u2019\uc5d0\uc11c \u2018\uc778\uc0c1\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud588\uace0, \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c\uc0c1 \uae34\ucd95 \uc2dc\uc810\uc774 \uc55e\ub2f9\uaca8\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c 9\uc6d4 \uccab \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubc18\uc601\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC)\ub294 \ub9cc\uc7a5\uc77c\uce58(12\u20130)\ub85c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c\ubc94\uc704\ub97c 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\ub2e4. 4\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc758 8\u20134 \ubd84\uc5f4\uacfc \ub2ec\ub9ac \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 \ud45c\uacb0\uc774 \ub2e8\uc77c \ub300\uc624\ub97c \uc774\ub918\uc73c\uba70, \uc131\uba85\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc644\ud654(\uc778\ud558) \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc744 \uc81c\uac70\ud588\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd\uc694\uc57d(SEP)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 2026\ub144 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc911\uac04\uac12\uc744 3\uc6d4\uc758 \uc57d 3.4%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 3.8%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5\ud588\uace0, 2026\ub144 PCE \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 2.7%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.6%\ub85c \uc62c\ub838\ub2e4. CME FedWatch \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c 9\uc6d4 25bp \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ub2e8\uc77c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub85c \uac00\uc7a5 \uc720\ub825\ud558\uac8c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uba70, \uc774\ud6c4 1\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4(1\uc6d4 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \u2018\ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \uc778\uc0c1\u2019\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud655\ub960 \ub192\uc740 \uacbd\uc6b0\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00). \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \ud638\uc8fc \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c \uc77c\uc815\uc774 \ud55c\uc0b0\ud55c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 0.7050\uc740 \uc800\ud56d\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ub410\uace0, 0.7000\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc774\uba70 \uadf8 \uc544\ub798\ub85c\ub294 0.6950\uc774 \uc704\uce58\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Fed Surprise Shifts Outlook and Trading Strategies<\/h3>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \u2018\uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988\u2019\ub294 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \ud310\ub3c4\ub97c \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ubc14\uafd4 \ub193\uc558\ub2e4. 0.7050\uc744 \uba85\ud655\ud788 \ud558\ud5a5 \uc774\ud0c8\ud588\uace0, Fed \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc0c8\ub86d\uac8c \ud615\uc131\ub41c \ub9cc\ud07c AUD\/USD\ub294 \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc6b0\uc138\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc81c 0.7050 \ubd80\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc740 \uc57d\uc138(\uc20f) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uac1c\uc2dc\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ucd94\uac00\ud558\ub294 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \uc811\uadfc\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 7\uc6d4 \ub9d0~8\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 AUD\/USD \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\uac00 \uc720\ud6a8\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c\ub2e4. CBOE \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc218(AXY)\ub294 \ud558\ub8e8 \uc0ac\uc774 \uc57d 8%\uc5d0\uc11c 12%\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ub192\uc740 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ucee4 \ub871 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \ub9e4\ub825\uc774 \ubd80\uac01\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\ub97c 0.7000 \ub610\ub294 \uadf8 \uc774\ud558\ub85c \uc124\uc815\ud55c \ud48b \ud655\ubcf4\ub294 \ud558\ub77d \ubaa8\uba58\ud140\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uba85\ud655\ud55c \uc218\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc544\uc6c3\uc624\ube0c\ub354\uba38\ub2c8(OTM) \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc5ed\uc2dc \uc774\ubc88 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub2e4. 0.7050 \ucf5c\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\uace0 0.7100 \ucf5c\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \uc218\ucde8\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc190\uc2e4 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc0c8 \uc800\ud56d\uc120 \uc544\ub798\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb34\ub294 \ud55c \uc218\uc775 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0 \ub193\uc778\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Policy Divergence, Positioning, and Market Implications<\/h3>\n<p>\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uac04 \uc815\ucc45 \uad34\ub9ac \ud655\ub300\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc2dc\uac01\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\uc778\uc774\ub2e4. Fed\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, \ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBA)\uc740 \ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac(\uce90\uc2dc\ub808\uc774\ud2b8)\ub97c 3.10%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae34\ubc15\uac10\ub3c4 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4. \ud655\ub300\ub418\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28\ub294 AUD\/USD\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uac00\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ucd5c\uadfc COT(Commitment of Traders) \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \ub300\ud615 \ud22c\uae30\uc138\ub825\uc740 \uc774\ubc88 \ud68c\uc758 \uc774\uc804 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc20f\uc73c\ub85c \uc313\uc544\ub450\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc7ac\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud560 \u2018\ub300\uae30 \uc790\uae08\u2019\uc774 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \uc774\ucc98\ub7fc \uac15\ub825\ud55c Fed\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uc804\ud658\uc774 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uc911\ub9bd\uc801\uc778 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uacfc \ub9de\ubb3c\ub9b4 \uacbd\uc6b0, \ud615\uc131\ub41c \ucd94\uc138\ub294 \uc218\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc0c8 Fed \uc758\uc7a5\uc774 \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4(\uc0ac\uc804 \uc2e0\ud638)\ub97c \ucd95\uc18c\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc758\ub3c4\ub294 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud55c\uce35 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uba70 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \ubcf4\uc720\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc73c\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \ubc1b\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uc218\ub85d \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751\uc740 \ub354 \uac00\ud314\ub77c\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \ubcf4\uc720\uac00 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac\uc640 \uae30\ub300 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9 \uc2a4\uc719) \ud65c\uc6a9 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc778 \uc811\uadfc\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed \u2018\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c \uc1fc\ud06c\u2019\uc5d0 AUD\/USD 0.7000 \ubd95\uad34 \uc704\uae30: 2026 \uae08\ub9ac\uacbd\ub85c \uc778\uc0c1 \uc804\ud658\u00b79\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1 \ubca0\ud305 \ud655\uc0b0, 0.7050 \uc800\ud56d \uace0\ucc29. \ud48b\uc635\uc158\u00b7\ucf5c\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub85c \ud558\ubc29 \ub300\uc751.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49001","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49001"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49001\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49001"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}