\ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc9c0\uc218(DXY)\ub294 \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc\uac00 \uc758\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c\uc11c \uc8fc\uc7ac\ud55c \uccab \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uac00 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud55c \ub4a4 100.40\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc131\uba85\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \u2018\ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc870\uc815(additional rate adjustments)\u2019 \ubb38\uad6c\uac00 \uc0ad\uc81c\ub418\uba70 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud574\uc11d\uc774 \ud55c\uce35 \ub354 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc758\uc874\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 2026\ub144 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 3\uc6d4\uc758 2.4%\uc5d0\uc11c 2.2%\ub85c \ud558\ud5a5\ub41c \ubc18\uba74, \uc7a5\uae30 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 2.0%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub410\ub2e4. \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(dot plot)\ub3c4 \ubcc0\ud654\ud574 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc911\uac04\uac12\uc774 3.4%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.8%\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c \uc62c\ud574 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\ub2e4. EUR\/USD\ub294 1.1500 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ud6a1\ubcf4\ud588\uace0, GBP\/USD\ub294 \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589(BoE)\uc774 3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 1.3270\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. USD\/JPY\ub294 \uc6cc\uc2dc\uac00 2% \ubb3c\uac00\ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc7ac\ud655\uc778\ud558\uba74\uc11c 160.80\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD\ub294 \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uac00 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc774 \uc7ac\uac1c\ud1b5\ub410\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud788\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc774\ub780\uc774 \u2018\ub9d0\uc37d\uc744 \ud53c\uc6b0\uba74(acts up)\u2019 \uacf5\uaca9\uc774 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud55c \uc774\ud6c4 \ud22c\uc790\uc2ec\ub9ac\uac00 \uac1c\uc120\ub418\uba70 0.7000\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4. WTI\ub294 \uc774\ub780 \uc720\uc870\uc120\uc774 \ud574\ud611\uc744 \ud1b5\uacfc\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \ub098\uc628 \ub4a4 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 75.40\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\ud569\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc73c\ub098, \uc704\ud5d8 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc740 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub410\ub2e4. \uae08\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc640 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc758 \uc555\ubc15\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d 4,240\ub2ec\ub7ec\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uc77c\uc815\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4\uad6d\ub9bd\uc740\ud589(SNB) \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c \ubc0f \uae08\ub9ac, \uc601\uad6d \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c\uc640 GfK \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uc2e0\ub8b0, BoE \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uc815, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc2e0\uaddc \uc2e4\uc5c5\uc218\ub2f9\uccad\uad6c\uc640 \ud544\ub77c\ub378\ud53c\uc544 \uc5f0\uc740 \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uc9c0\uc218, \uc77c\ubcf8 CPI\uc640 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BoJ) \uc758\uc0ac\ub85d, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uae08\uc694\uc77c \ub3c5\uc77c \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(PPI)\uac00 \ud3ec\ud568\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc804\uc77c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub294 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uac00 \uc0c1\ub2f9 \uae30\uac04 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc9c0\uc218(DXY)\uac00 100.00 \uc800\ud56d\uc120\uc744 \ub3cc\ud30c\ud55c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc2e0\uace0\uac00\ub97c \uaca8\ub0e5\ud558\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc73c\ub85c \ud310\ub2e8\ub418\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218\uac00 15% \uc774\uc0c1 \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\ub358 2022\ub144 \uae34\ucd95 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc758 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ub7a0\ub9ac\ub97c \uc5f0\uc0c1\uc2dc\ud0a8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uad00\uc2ec\uc740 \u2018\uac15\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\ud61c\u2019 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654(\uc815\ucc45 \ub514\ucee4\ud50c\ub9c1)\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub54c EUR\/USD\uc640 GBP\/USD\uc758 \uc20f \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ubaa8\uc0c9\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(ECB)\uc740 2024\ub144 6\uc6d4 \ucd08 \ucd5c\uadfc \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub85c \uc774\ubbf8 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc92c\uace0, \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 5\uc6d4 2.6%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900\uacfc\uc758 \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \ud655\uc5f0\ud788 \uac08\ub9b0\ub2e4. \uc624\ub298 \ub2a6\uac8c \ub098\uc62c BoE \uacb0\uc815\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\uac00 \ub420 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\uba70, \ub2f9\uc0ac\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \u2018\ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801 \ub3d9\uacb0\u2019\uc774 \ud604\uc2e4\ud654\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \uac00\uc18d\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\uc758 160.80 \ub3c4\ub2ec\uc740 \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubc29\uc5b4 \uc218\ub2e8 \uc5c6\uc774 \ucd94\uac00 \ucd94\uaca9\ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uacbd\uacc4\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ud06c\uac8c \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc774\ub098, \uc77c\ubcf8 \ub2f9\uad6d\uc740 2022\ub144 \ub9d0 \uac1c\uc785 \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \uc788\uace0 2024\ub144\uc5d0\ub3c4 155\uc120 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \ub3cc\ud30c \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uad6c\ub450 \uacbd\uace0\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uc628 \ubc14 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc870\uc815 \uc2dc \ub9e4\uc218(buy dips)\ub97c \uae30\ubcf8\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub418,\u7a81\ubc1c\uc801 \uac1c\uc785\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \uc678\uac00\uaca9(OTM) \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc785\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \ubcd1\ud589\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc911 \uae08\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc0c1\ub2f9 \ud3ed \uc57d\ud654\ub410\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub192\uc544\uc9c0\uba74 \ubb34\uc774\uc790 \uc790\uc0b0 \ubcf4\uc720\uc758 \uae30\ud68c\ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \ucee4\uc838 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc9c8\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c \uace0\uc810\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub358 2023\ub144 \ub9d0\uacfc \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\uac8c, \uae08\uc774 \ub354 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120 \uc7ac\uc2dc\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub098\uc124 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc720\uac00\ub294 \uac15\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc640 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0 \uac07\ud78c \ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \uac70\ub798\ub85c \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub2e4. WTI\ub294 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 72~78\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac08 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30 \uc218\uc694 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uac00\ub2a0\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ucd5c\uadfc 370\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4 \uc99d\uac00(build)\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \uc8fc\uac04 EIA \uc7ac\uace0 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uba74\ubc00\ud788 \ucd94\uc801\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc18c\ud654\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4. \uc624\ub298 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc2e0\uaddc \uc2e4\uc5c5\uc218\ub2f9\uccad\uad6c\uc640 \ud544\ub77c\ub378\ud53c\uc544 \uc5f0\uc740 \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \u2018\ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc758\uc874\u2019 \uc811\uadfc\ubc95\uc744 \uc2dc\ud5d8\ud558\ub294 \uccab \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218 \ub610\ub294 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218(buy volatility)\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\uc5f0\uc900, \uc6cc\uc2dc \uccab \ud68c\uc758\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\uc5d0\ub3c4 \u2018\ucd94\uac00\uc870\uc815\u2019 \ubb38\uad6c \uc0ad\uc81c\u00b7\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c \uc0c1\ud5a5\u2026DXY 100.40 \ub3cc\ud30c. \uc720\ub85c\u00b7\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc \uc57d\uc138, \uc5d4\ud654 160.80. \uae08 \ud558\ub77d\u00b7\uc720\uac00 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uc9c0\uc18d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47737,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49000","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49000"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49000\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47737"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49000"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49000"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49000"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}