{"id":48994,"date":"2026-06-18T03:22:45","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T03:22:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%8b%a4%ec%9a%b0%ec%a7%80%ec%88%98-%ec%82%ac%ec%83%81-%ec%b5%9c%ea%b3%a0%ec%b9%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%8b%a0-%ed%9b%84-%ed%9b%84%ed%87%b4%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%a0%84\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T03:22:45","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T03:22:45","slug":"%eb%8b%a4%ec%9a%b0%ec%a7%80%ec%88%98-%ec%82%ac%ec%83%81-%ec%b5%9c%ea%b3%a0%ec%b9%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%8b%a0-%ed%9b%84-%ed%9b%84%ed%87%b4%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%a0%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%8b%a4%ec%9a%b0%ec%a7%80%ec%88%98-%ec%82%ac%ec%83%81-%ec%b5%9c%ea%b3%a0%ec%b9%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%8b%a0-%ed%9b%84-%ed%9b%84%ed%87%b4%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%a0%84\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub2e4\uc6b0\uc9c0\uc218, \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58 \uacbd\uc2e0 \ud6c4 \ud6c4\ud1f4\u2026\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\uba70 \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0 \ud754\ub4e4\ub824"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ub2e4\uc6b0\uc874\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc5c5\ud3c9\uade0\uc9c0\uc218(DJIA)\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uc77c \uc7a5 \ucd08\ubc18 3\uac70\ub798\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \uacbd\uc2e0\ud55c \ub4a4, \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uac00 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub354 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c \ud568\uaed8 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84\uc744 \ubc18\ub0a9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc7a5\uc911 \uace0\uc810 \ub300\ube44 \uc57d 480\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ub0ae\uc740 5\ub9cc1,800\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubc00\ub9ac\uba70 \uc774\ub0a0 \uc800\uc810\uc744 \ucc0d\uc740 \ub4a4, \uc18c\ud3ed \ud558\ub77d\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e4\uc18c \uc548\uc815\uc744 \ucc3e\uc558\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC)\ub294 12\ub300 0\uc758 \ub9cc\uc7a5\uc77c\uce58\ub85c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c\ubc94\uc704\ub97c 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 4\uc6d4(8\ub300 4)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ucee8\uc13c\uc11c\uc2a4\uac00 \uac15\ud574\uc9c4 \uacb0\uacfc\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uc644\ud654 \ud3b8\ud5a5(easing bias)\uc744 \uc81c\uac70\ud558\uace0 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\uc815\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc57d\uc18d\uc744 \uc7ac\ud655\uc778\ud558\ub294 \ud55c\ud3b8, \uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud3c9\uac00\ub97c \uc0c1\ud5a5\ud558\uace0 \ub192\uc740 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131\uacfc \ud22c\uc790 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00(repricing)\ub294 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(SEP)\uac00 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud588\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc911\uac04\uac12 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 3\uc6d4 3.4%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 3.8%\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uc130\uace0, 2026\ub144 PCE \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd \uc911\uac04\uac12\ub3c4 2.7%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.6%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 2\ub144\ubb3c \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc57d 11bp \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 4.16% \ubd80\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uc130\ub2e4. \uc6cc\uc2dc(Warsh)\ub294 \ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uc5f0\uc900 \uc6b4\uc601\uc744 \uc810\uac80\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c 5\uac1c \ud0dc\uc2a4\ud06c\ud3ec\uc2a4 \uad6c\uc131\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ucee4\ubba4\ub2c8\ucf00\uc774\uc158 \uccb4\uacc4\uc640 SEP \uac1c\ud3b8\uc774 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\ub904\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. 5\uc6d4 \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4\uac00 0.9% \uc99d\uac00\ud55c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uae08\ub9ac \ubbfc\uac10 \uc5c5\uc885\uc774 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uace0, \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5\uc885\ud569\uc9c0\uc218\uc640 \ub7ec\uc1402000\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc7a5\uc911 \ud55c\ub54c \uc57d 1% \uac00\uae4c\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uae30\uc220\uc801 \ub808\ubca8\ub85c\ub294 5\ub9cc2,000 \ubc0f 5\ub9cc2,300\uc120\uc774 \uc800\ud56d\uc120, 5\ub9cc1,800\uc120\uacfc \uadf8 \uc544\ub798 5\ub9cc1,500\uc120\uc774 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uacfc \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd<\/h3>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc804\ud658\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. CBOE \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc9c0\uc218(VIX)\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 30% \uc774\uc0c1 \uae09\ub4f1\ud574 17\uc744 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uacf5\ud3ec\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ubd84\uba85\ud55c \uc2e0\ud638\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc0ac\uc758 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 \ub300\uc751\uc740 SPX, DIA \ub4f1 \uad11\ubc94\uc704 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574, \ud604 \uace0\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>5\ub9cc2,300\uc120 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \ub3cc\ud30c\uac00 \uc2e4\ud328\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \uc57d\uc138 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c, \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uac15\ud55c \u2018\ucc9c\uc7a5\u2019(ceiling)\uc744 \ud615\uc131\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc0c8\ub85c \ud655\uc778\ub41c \uc800\ud56d\uc120\uc778 5\ub9cc2,000\uc120 \uc704\ucabd \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc5d0 \ubca0\uc5b4 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub97c \uc124\uc815\ud574 \uc774 \uc800\ud56d\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \ub2e4\uc6b0 \ud558\ub77d\ubfd0 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub97c \uc18c\ud654\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \ud6a1\ubcf4 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \uae30\ub300\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc139\ud130 \ub85c\ud14c\uc774\uc158, \uae08\ub9ac, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc601\ud5a5<\/h3>\n<p>\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc218\uac1c\uc6d4\uac04 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud574\uc628 \uae08\ub9ac \ubbfc\uac10 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc139\ud130 \ube44\uc911\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc7ac\ubc30\uce58\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc790\uae08 \ud750\ub984 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uc911\uc2ec \ud380\ub4dc\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc\uc5d0\ub9cc 20\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc0c1\uc774 \uc720\ucd9c\ub410\uc73c\uba70, \uc774 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \ub354 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0, \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654(higher-for-longer)\u2019 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\ud61c\uac00 \uae30\ub300\ub418\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc139\ud130 ETF\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc73c\ub85c \ud68c\uc804(\ub85c\ud14c\uc774\uc158)\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>2\ub144\ubb3c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 4.16%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae09\ub4f1\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \ubc18\uc751\uc774\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uba70, 2\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uc120\ubb3c(2-Year Treasury Note futures) \uc20f \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ubaa8\uc0c9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ucc98\ub7fc \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud53c\ubc97\uc740 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120\uc744 \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud604\uc7ac\ub3c4 10\ub144-2\ub144 \uae08\ub9ac \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\uac00 5bp \ucd95\uc18c\ub418\ub294 \ub4f1 \uadf8 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub7ec\uc1402000\uc774 \uae09\ub77d\ud558\uba70 \uc911\uc18c\ud615\uc8fc\uac00 \ud070 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \ubc1b\uc740 \uac83\uc740, \ucc28\uc785\ube44\uc6a9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ub354 \ubbfc\uac10\ud55c \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc5d0\uc11c \uacbd\uae30 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ud655\uc0b0\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc2dd \ud48b\/\ucf5c \ube44\uc728\uc740 0.78\ub85c \uce58\uc19f\uc544 2\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uc758 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 \ud558\ub77d \ubc29\uc5b4(\ub2e4\uc6b4\uc0ac\uc774\ub4dc \ubcf4\ud638)\ub97c \uc11c\ub458\ub7ec \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub2f9\uc0ac\uc758 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc744 \uc7ac\ud655\uc778\ud558\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\uc774\uba70, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubcf4\ud638 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uadfc\uac70\uac00 \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc0ac\uc0c1\ucd5c\uace0 \uacbd\uc2e0\ud55c \ub2e4\uc6b0, \uc5f0\uc900 \u2018\ub3d9\uacb0+\ub9e4\ud30c \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\u2019\uc5d0 480P \uae09\ub77d. 2026 \uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd \uc0c1\ud5a5, 2\ub144\ubb3c 4.16%\u00b7VIX \uae09\ub4f1. \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uc57d\uc138 \uc18d \ud48b \ud5e4\uc9c0\u00b7\uae08\uc735 \ub85c\ud14c\uc774\uc158 \ubd80\uac01.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47753,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\uc0ac\uc0c1\ucd5c\uace0 \uacbd\uc2e0\ud55c \ub2e4\uc6b0, \uc5f0\uc900 \u2018\ub3d9\uacb0+\ub9e4\ud30c \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\u2019\uc5d0 480P \uae09\ub77d. 2026 \uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd \uc0c1\ud5a5, 2\ub144\ubb3c 4.16%\u00b7VIX \uae09\ub4f1. \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uc57d\uc138 \uc18d \ud48b \ud5e4\uc9c0\u00b7\uae08\uc735 \ub85c\ud14c\uc774\uc158 \ubd80\uac01.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, 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