{"id":48991,"date":"2026-06-18T02:23:35","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T02:23:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%a0%90%eb%8f%84%ed%91%9c-2026%eb%85%84-%eb%a7%90-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-3-8%eb%a1%9c-%ec%83%81%ed%96%a5-%ea%b3%a0%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9e%a5\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T02:23:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T02:23:35","slug":"%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%a0%90%eb%8f%84%ed%91%9c-2026%eb%85%84-%eb%a7%90-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-3-8%eb%a1%9c-%ec%83%81%ed%96%a5-%ea%b3%a0%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9e%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%a0%90%eb%8f%84%ed%91%9c-2026%eb%85%84-%eb%a7%90-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-3-8%eb%a1%9c-%ec%83%81%ed%96%a5-%ea%b3%a0%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9e%a5\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uc900 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c, 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd 3.8%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5\u2026 \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u2019 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc \ubca0\ud305 \uac15\ud654"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc218\uc694\uc77c FOMC \ud68c\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4 \uacf5\uac1c\ud55c \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(dot plot)\ub294 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \ub354 \ub192\uc544\uc9c8 \uac83\uc784\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc815\ucc45\ub2f9\uad6d\uc740 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.8%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 3\uc6d4\uc758 3.4%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\ud5a5\ub41c \uac83\uc774\uba70 \ud604\uc7ac \ubaa9\ud45c\ubc94\uc704 \uc911\uac04\uac12\uc744 \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc544 \uc62c\ud574 \uc911 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4. 2027\ub144 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub294 3.1%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.6%\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uac04 \ub4a4, 2028\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \uc774\uc804 3.1% \ub300\ube44 3.4%\ub85c \uc644\ub9cc\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, \uc7a5\uae30(longer-run) \ucd94\uc815\uce58\ub294 3.1%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc218\uc815\ub41c \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd(SEP)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc62c\ud574 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 2.4%\uc5d0\uc11c 2.2%\ub85c \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\uace0, 2027\ub144\uc740 2.3%\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 \uae30\uc900 4.4%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.3%\ub85c \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub410\uc73c\uba70 2027\ub144\uc5d0\ub3c4 4.3%\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 PCE\ub294 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 3\uc6d4\uc758 2.7%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.6%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5\ub410\uace0, 2027\ub144\uc740 \uae30\uc874 2.2% \ub300\ube44 2.3%\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \ub192\uc544\uc9c4 \ub4a4, 2028\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 2.0%\ub85c \ubcf5\uadc0\ud560 \uc804\ub9dd(\ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc5c6\uc74c)\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc \uae30\ud68c<\/h3>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.8%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \u2018\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988\u2019\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \u2018\uace0\uc810 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654(higher for longer)\u2019\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 12\uc6d4 SOFR \ub4f1 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c \uc20f(\ub9e4\ub3c4) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4. 5\uc6d4 CPI\uac00 3.9%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub728\uac81\uac8c \ub098\uc628 \uc810\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud655\uc2e0\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uba70, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc6b0\ub824\uc784\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc870\ub2ec\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \ud2b9\ud788 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\u00b7\uc131\uc7a5\uc8fc \ub4f1 \uae08\ub9ac \ubbfc\uac10 \uc5c5\uc885\uc758 \ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uc555\ubc15\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4. \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub0b4 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \uc870\uc815\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0\ub85c \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100 \uc9c0\uc218 \ubcf4\ud638\ud48b \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. CBOE \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc9c0\uc218(VIX)\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uc18c\uc2dd \uc774\ud6c4 \uc800\uc810 14\uc5d0\uc11c 17.5\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc788\uc5b4 VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc778 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\ub85c \ubd80\uac01\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\ud658\uc728, \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120, \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud568\uc758<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ucc98\ub7fc \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uac15\ud55c \uc21c\ud48d\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(ECB) \ub4f1 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \u2018\ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801\u2019 \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, FX \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \uba85\ud655\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY) \uc120\ubb3c \ub871(\ub9e4\uc218)\uacfc USD\/JPY \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>GDP \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc18c\ud3ed \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub048\uc801\ud55c(sticky) \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc\uc758 \uc2f8\uc6c0\uc744 \uc9c0\uc18d\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc758\uc9c0\ub294 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120\uc774 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uc120\ubb3c \ub9e4\ub3c4\uc640 2\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uc120\ubb3c \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uacb0\ud569\ud558\ub294 \ub4f1 \ub4c0\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uae34 \ucc44\uad8c\uc744 \uc20f\ud558\uace0 \uc9e7\uc740 \ucc44\uad8c\uc744 \ub871\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798\uac00 \ub808\uc774\ub354\uc5d0 \uc62c\ub77c\uc640 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2022\ub144\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc804\ud658 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120 \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \ub0c8\ub358 \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9ac\uac8c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uacac\uc870\ud588\ub358 6\uc6d4 \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c(NFP)\ub294 25\ub9cc\uba85 \uc99d\uac00\uc640 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960 4.2% \uc720\uc9c0\ub85c \ud655\uc778\ub418\uba70, \uc5f0\uc900\uc5d0 \u2018\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc6b0\uc120\u2019\uc758 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \ucf1c\uc92c\ub2e4. \ud68c\ubcf5\ub825 \uc788\ub294 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub2f9\uad6d\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \uc870\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uacbd\uae30\ubd80\uc591\uc744 \uc11c\ub458\ub7ec\uc57c \ud560 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc644\ud654\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ub2e8\uae30\uac04 \ub0b4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud55c \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \ubc18\ub300\ud558\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\ub294 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \uc720\ud6a8\ud55c \uc218\uc775 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\u201d\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5(2026\ub144 3.8%)\u2026\uc778\ud50c\ub808 \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 \u2191. \u2018\uace0\uc810 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u2019 \ubca0\ud305\uc5d0 SOFR \uc20f\u00b7\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 \ubcf4\ud638\ud48b\u00b7VIX\ucf5c, \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub871\u00b7\ucee4\ube0c \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc \ubd80\uac01.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47735,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48991","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201c\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\u201d\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5(2026\ub144 3.8%)\u2026\uc778\ud50c\ub808 \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 \u2191. \u2018\uace0\uc810 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u2019 \ubca0\ud305\uc5d0 SOFR \uc20f\u00b7\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 \ubcf4\ud638\ud48b\u00b7VIX\ucf5c, \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub871\u00b7\ucee4\ube0c \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc \ubd80\uac01.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" 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