{"id":48990,"date":"2026-06-18T02:22:41","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T02:22:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ed%8f%ac%ec%9b%8c%eb%93%9c-%ea%b0%80%ec%9d%b4%eb%8d%98%ec%8a%a4-%ec%82%ad%ec%a0%9c%ec%97%90-%ea%b3%a0\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T02:22:41","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T02:22:41","slug":"%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ed%8f%ac%ec%9b%8c%eb%93%9c-%ea%b0%80%ec%9d%b4%eb%8d%98%ec%8a%a4-%ec%82%ad%ec%a0%9c%ec%97%90-%ea%b3%a0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ed%8f%ac%ec%9b%8c%eb%93%9c-%ea%b0%80%ec%9d%b4%eb%8d%98%ec%8a%a4-%ec%82%ad%ec%a0%9c%ec%97%90-%ea%b3%a0\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uc900, \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\u2026 \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4 \uc0ad\uc81c\uc5d0 \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u2019 \uc804\ub9dd \uac15\ud654"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\ub294 6\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\uc778 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c\ubc94\uc704\ub97c 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\ub2e4. \uacb0\uc815\uc740 \ub9cc\uc7a5\uc77c\uce58\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uc131\uba85\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\ub294 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub7ec \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ub4f1 \uc77c\ubd80 \ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \ubb3c\uac00\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uad6d\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uacfc \uc5f0\uad00\ub41c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \uc874\uc7ac\ud568\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \uc18d\ub3c4\ub85c \ud655\ub300\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294 \ud55c\ud3b8, \uac15\ud55c \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uc99d\uac00\uc640 \uc790\ubcf8\ud22c\uc790\ub97c \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4. \uc544\uc6b8\ub7ec \uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00\ub294 \ub178\ub3d9\ub825 \uc99d\uac00\uc640 \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \ubcf4\uc870\ub97c \ub9de\ucdc4\uace0 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 \ud070 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uc5c6\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd\uc694\uc57d(SEP)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900 \uc778\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc740 2026\ub144 PCE \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 2.7%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.6%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5\ud588\uace0, \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE \uc5ed\uc2dc 2.7%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.3%\ub85c \uc62c\ub838\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 2%\ub85c \ubcf5\uadc0\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\uc810\uc740 2028\ub144\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c(\uc911\uc559\uac12)\ub294 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub3fc 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 3.4%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.8%\ub85c, 2027\ub144 \ub9d0 3.1%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.6%\ub85c, 2028\ub144 \ub9d0 3.1%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.4%\ub85c \uac01\uac01 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 2026\ub144 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 2.4%\uc5d0\uc11c 2.2%\ub85c \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\uace0, 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 4.4%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.3%\ub85c \uc218\uc815\ub410\ub2e4. \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc( Kevin Warsh ) \uc758\uc7a5\uc740 \uc815\ucc45\ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \uad6c\uc18d\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\ub97c \ucca0\ud68c\ud588\uace0, \ucee4\ubba4\ub2c8\ucf00\uc774\uc158\u00b7\ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c\u00b7\ub370\uc774\ud130\u00b7\uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \ubc0f \uace0\uc6a9\u00b7\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ud504\ub808\uc784\uc6cc\ud06c\ub97c \uc544\uc6b0\ub974\ub294 \ud0dc\uc2a4\ud06c\ud3ec\uc2a4 \uad6c\uc131\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ubb3c\uac00\ubaa9\ud45c(2%)\ub294 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch)\ub294 2026\ub144 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd5c\uc18c 25bp \uc778\uc0c1 1\ud68c \uc774\uc0c1\uc774 \uc774\ub904\uc9c8 \ud655\ub960\uc744 58%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Fed Policy Shifts and Market Volatility<\/h3>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc0c8 \uc9c0\ub3c4\ubd80\uac00 \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\ub97c \uacf5\uc2dd \ucca0\ud68c\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc608\uce21 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc774\uc81c \u2018\uc9c4\uc815\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc758\uc874\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ub410\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub85c, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \uadf9\ub3c4\uc758 \uc8fc\uc758\ub85c \uc810\uac80\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ud655\ub300\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc5f0\ub9d0 PCE \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc744 3.6%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI)\uac00 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 3%\ub97c \uc644\uace0\ud558\uac8c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900 \uac83\uacfc \ubd80\ud569\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \ubca0\ud305\uc740 \ubd80\uc801\uc808\ud574 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uad6d\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc778\ud558\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ub354 \ubb34\uac8c\ub97c \ub458 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ub9cc\ud07c, \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654(higher for longer)\u2019 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc62c\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \u2018\uc778\ud558 \ud69f\uc218 \ucd95\uc18c\u2019 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc870\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \ub300\uc751\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ud655\ub300\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uba85\ud655\ud55c \uc2e0\ud638\ub2e4. \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \ud63c\uc120 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5(2022\ub144 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc640 \uc720\uc0ac)\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud560 \ub54c, VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. VIX\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc \ube44\uad50\uc801 \ub0ae\uc740 13 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc5ec \uc654\uc73c\ub098, \uba85\ud655\ud55c \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4 \uc5c6\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc218\ub97c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud574\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc5ec\uac74\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Impact on Currency and Equity Markets<\/h3>\n<p>\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\uac00 100.00\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae09\ub4f1\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub2e8\ud638\ud55c \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\uac00 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uacb0\uacfc\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \ub0b4\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. EUR\/USD \ub4f1 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc5d0\uc11c \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \ucd94\uac00 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294(\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \uc815\uc758\ub41c) \ubc29\ubc95\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ubc88 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0\ub294 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0, \uc720\ud2f8\ub9ac\ud2f0 \ub4f1 \uae08\ub9ac \ubbfc\uac10 \uc5c5\uc885\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc5c5\uc885\ubcc4 ETF\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uba74 \ud574\ub2f9 \uc139\ud130\uc758 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0 \ub610\ub294 \ud558\ub77d \ubca0\ud305\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc8fc\ud0dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc774\ubbf8 \uae34\ucd95\uc801(restrictive)\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc778\uc815\ud55c \uc810\uc740 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \uc2dc\uac01\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\uc81c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ucd08\uc810\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c \uace0\uc6a9 \ubc0f \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uc774\ub3d9\ud55c\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c(NFP)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uc0c1 \ubc16\uc73c\ub85c \uac15\ud55c 27\ub9cc2,000\uba85 \uc99d\uac00\uac00 \ud655\uc778\ub418\uba74\uc11c, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uc774\uc720\ub294 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c \uc804\ud6c4\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218\uc120\ubb3c\uacfc \uc635\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e8\uae30 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u201d \uacbd\uace0\ub4f1. Fed, \uae08\ub9ac 3.50~3.75% \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc 2026 PCE 3.6%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5, \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\ub3c4 \uc0c1\ubc29. \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc\uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4 \ucca0\ud68c\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138 \uc555\ub825 \ud655\ub300.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47721,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48990\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47721"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}