{"id":48988,"date":"2026-06-18T01:52:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T01:52:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-2026%eb%85%84-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%c2%b7%eb%ac%bc%ea%b0%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%b9%98-%ec%83%81%ed%96%a5%ec%97%90-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0-%ec%82%ad%ec%a0%9ceu\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T01:52:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T01:52:31","slug":"%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-2026%eb%85%84-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%c2%b7%eb%ac%bc%ea%b0%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%b9%98-%ec%83%81%ed%96%a5%ec%97%90-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0-%ec%82%ad%ec%a0%9ceu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-2026%eb%85%84-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%c2%b7%eb%ac%bc%ea%b0%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%b9%98-%ec%83%81%ed%96%a5%ec%97%90-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0-%ec%82%ad%ec%a0%9ceu\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uc900, 2026\ub144 \uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58 \uc0c1\ud5a5\uc5d0 \uc644\ud654 \uae30\uc870 \uc0ad\uc81c\u2026EUR\/USD \ud558\ub77d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uc77c \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c\ubc94\uc704\ub97c 3.50~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC)\ub294 4\uc6d4(8\ub300 4)\uacfc \ub2ec\ub9ac 12\ub300 0 \ub9cc\uc7a5\uc77c\uce58\ub85c \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub838\ub2e4. \uc131\uba85\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae30\uc874\uc758 \uc644\ud654 \ud3b8\ud5a5(easing bias)\uc744 \uc0ad\uc81c\ud558\uace0 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc870\uc815 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\ub3c4 \ubaa8\ub450 \ub0b4\ub838\uc73c\uba70, \ub300\uc2e0 \ubb3c\uac00\uc548\uc815 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc5d0 \uc804\ub150\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\uc9c0\ub97c \uba85\ud655\ud788 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd\uc694\uc57d(SEP)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 2026\ub144 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd(\uc911\uc704\uac12)\uc774 3\uc6d4 3.4%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 3.8%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5\ub410\ub2e4. \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub410\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 PCE(\uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c) \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd \uc911\uc704\uac12\uc740 2.7%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.6%\ub85c \ub192\uc544\uc84c\uace0, \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 3.3%\ub85c \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc9c1\ud6c4 EUR\/USD\uac00 \uc57d 50\ud54d \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uba70 1.1600\uc120 \uc544\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c 1.1550 \ubd80\uadfc(\ub2f9\uc77c \uc800\uc810)\uc73c\ub85c \ubc00\ub838\uace0, \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 GMT 18:30(\ud55c\uad6d\uc2dc\uac04 \uc775\uc77c 03:30) \uc608\uc815\ub41c \uc758\uc7a5 \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Market Repricing And Trading Implications<\/h3>\n

\uc624\ub298 \ub0a0\uc9dc(2026\ub144 6\uc6d4 18\uc77c) \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uac11\uc791\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \ub9e4\ud30c \uc804\ud658\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc\uac04\uc758 \ud310\ub3c4\ub97c \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ubc14\uafbc\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd5c\uc18c 1\ud68c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc57d 70%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\uc73c\ub098, \uc774\ubc88 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc774\ub97c \uc804\uba74\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub4a4\uc9d1\uc5b4 \uc778\uc0c1 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \ub3cc\ub824\uc138\uc6e0\ub2e4. \uc774\uc81c \uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9ac\uace0, \ub354 \uac15\ud55c \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uae08\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9cc\uc7a5\uc77c\uce58 \ud45c\uacb0\uacfc \uc644\ud654 \ud3b8\ud5a5 \ud3ec\uae30\ub294 \uc704\uc6d0\ud68c\uc758 \uac15\ud55c \ud655\uc2e0\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc81c \ub354 \uc624\ub79c \uae30\uac04 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac(higher-for-longer) \uc2dc\uadf8\ub110\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 SOFR \uc5f0\ub3d9 \uc120\ubb3c \ub4f1 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4. 2022\ub144 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801 \ud53c\ubc97 \uc0ac\ub840\ub294, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc5d0 \ubcf8\uaca9 \ub300\uc751\ud560 \ub54c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc7ac\uac00\uaca9\ud654\uac00 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc9c4\ud589\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0 \uc0c1\uae30\uc2dc\ud0a8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

EUR\/USD\uc758 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 \ud558\ub77d\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \u2018\ubcf4\uc720\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \ud1b5\ud654\u2019\ub85c \uc7ac\ubd80\uc0c1\ud588\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uba85\ud655\ud55c \uc2e0\ud638\ub2e4. \ub3d9 \uc30d\uc5d0\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ubc29 \uc5ec\ub825\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uba70, \uc774 \ubaa8\uba58\ud140\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 1.1500 \ud558\ud68c \uad6c\uac04\uc758 \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\ub294 \uacfc\uac70 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub9e4\ud30c \ud53c\ubc97 \uc774\ud6c4 6\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \ud3c9\uade0 5~7% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \ubc14 \uc788\uc5b4, \ud574\ub2f9 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uc21c\ud48d\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Broader Market Risks And Fed’s Inflation Outlook<\/h3>\n

\uc774\ubc88 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 \uc800\uae08\ub9ac \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\ud61c\ub97c \ubcf4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd80\ub2f4 \uc694\uc778\uc774\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ub9cc\ud07c, S&P500 \ud48b \ub9e4\uc218\ub098 VIX \ucf5c \ub9e4\uc218 \ub4f1 \ubc29\uc5b4(\ud5e4\uc9c0) \uc218\ub2e8\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \ubb3c\uac00\uc548\uc815\uc744 \uc704\ud574 \uacbd\uae30 \uc57d\ud654\ub97c \uac10\ub0b4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec\uc5d0\ub9cc 27\ub9cc2,000\uac1c\uc758 \uc2e0\uaddc \uace0\uc6a9\uc774 \ub298\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \ub4f1 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uacac\uc870\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

2026\ub144 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c 3.6%\ub85c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b0 \uc810\uc740, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \ud6c4\ud589 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uae30\uc870 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc751\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. 5\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 3.3%\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \ub454\ud654\ub410\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4, \uc704\uc6d0\ud68c\ub294 \uc774\ub97c \ubd88\ucda9\ubd84\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 \uc790\uccb4 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub354 \ubb34\uac8c\ub97c \ub450\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc608\uc815\ub410\ub358 \uc778\ud558 \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub09c \uc774\ubc88 \uc815\ucc45 \uc804\ud658\uc744 \uc815\ub2f9\ud654\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uc5f0\uc900, \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\uc5d0\ub3c4 \u2018\uc644\ud654 \ud3b8\ud5a5\u2019 \uc0ad\uc81c\ub85c \ub9e4\ud30c \ud53c\ubc97. SEP\uc11c 2026 \uae08\ub9ac\u00b7PCE \uc804\ub9dd \uc0c1\ud5a5, higher-for-longer \uac15\ud654. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae09\ub4f1\uc5d0 EUR\/USD \uae09\ub77d, \uc8fc\uc2dd \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u00b7\ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694 \ud655\ub300.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47719,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48988","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48988"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48988\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48988"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48988"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48988"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}