{"id":48982,"date":"2026-06-18T00:22:38","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T00:22:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/abn-%ec%95%94%eb%a1%9c-fed-ecb-%ec%a0%95%ec%b1%85-%ea%b2%a9%ec%b0%a8-%ec%b6%95%ec%86%8c%c2%b7%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ec%a1%b4-%ed%8e%80%eb%8d%94%eb%a9%98%ed%84%b8-%ea%b0%9c%ec%84%a0%ec%97%90-eur-u\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T00:22:38","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T00:22:38","slug":"abn-%ec%95%94%eb%a1%9c-fed-ecb-%ec%a0%95%ec%b1%85-%ea%b2%a9%ec%b0%a8-%ec%b6%95%ec%86%8c%c2%b7%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ec%a1%b4-%ed%8e%80%eb%8d%94%eb%a9%98%ed%84%b8-%ea%b0%9c%ec%84%a0%ec%97%90-eur-u","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/abn-%ec%95%94%eb%a1%9c-fed-ecb-%ec%a0%95%ec%b1%85-%ea%b2%a9%ec%b0%a8-%ec%b6%95%ec%86%8c%c2%b7%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ec%a1%b4-%ed%8e%80%eb%8d%94%eb%a9%98%ed%84%b8-%ea%b0%9c%ec%84%a0%ec%97%90-eur-u\/","title":{"rendered":"ABN \uc554\ub85c \u201cFed-ECB \uc815\ucc45 \uaca9\ucc28 \ucd95\uc18c\u00b7\uc720\ub85c\uc874 \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138 \uac1c\uc120\uc5d0 EUR\/USD \ud558\ubc29 \uc9c0\uc9c0\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ABN AMRO\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \ubd84\uae30 \ub3d9\uc548 EUR\/USD(\uc720\ub85c\/\ub2ec\ub7ec) \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc774 \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138\uacfc \ub354\ubd88\uc5b4 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed) \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\ub300\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uc88c\uc6b0\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ub9ac\uc11c\uce58\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \uac04 \uc131\uc7a5\u00b7\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc758 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801 \uc218\ub834\uc744 \uac00\ub9ac\ud0a4\uba70, \uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28 \ucd95\uc18c\uac00 \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc9c0\ub0a0\uc218\ub85d \uc720\ub85c\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc774\ub97c \ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \ubbf8\uad6d \u2018\uc608\uc678\uc8fc\uc758(US exceptionalism)\u2019\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc73c\ub85c \uaddc\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ud55c\ud3b8, \uc9c0\ud45c \uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988\uc640 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc720\ubc1c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 ECB\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uae34\ucd95 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \ub9c9\ubc14\uc9c0\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\uc81c\ub97c \uae54\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 EUR\/USD\uc758 \uc0c1\ubc29 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uc870\uac74\ubd80 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ucf00\uc774\uc2a4\ub3c4 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \uc989, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub354 \uc624\ub79c \uae30\uac04 \ub354 \uc81c\uc57d\uc801\uc778 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ubc18\uba74 ECB\uac00 \uc644\ud654 \uacc4\ud68d\uc744 \uc55e\ub2f9\uaca8 \uc2e4\ud589\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654, \uc7ac\ucc28 \uc81c\uae30\ub418\ub294 \ubd84\uc808\ud654(fragmentation) \uc6b0\ub824, \ub610\ub294 ABN AMRO \uc804\ub9dd\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \uc131\uc7a5 \uc9c0\uc18d \ub4f1\uc744 \ud558\ubc29 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub85c \uc5f4\uac70\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>EUR\/USD \uac15\uc138\uc758 \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138 \ub3d9\uc778<\/h3>\n<p>\ub2f9\uc0ac\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc\uac04 EUR\/USD\uac00 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc77c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uac15\ud55c \uacbd\uae30 \uc6b0\uc704 \uad6d\uba74\uc774 \uc644\ud654\ub418\ub294 \uc870\uc9d0\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uba74\uc11c \uc131\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc720\ub85c\uc874\uacfc \ub354 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc218\ub834\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \uc720\ub85c\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uae08\ub9ac \ucc28 \ucd95\uc18c\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uc804\ub9dd\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\uc778\uc774\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uc5f0\uc900 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(FFR)\uac00 3.50%, ECB \uc608\uce58\uae08\uae08\ub9ac(Deposit Facility Rate)\uac00 2.75%\ub85c, \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub294 2024\ub144\uc5d0 \uad00\uce21\ub410\ub358 1.5%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uaca9\ucc28\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \ud06c\uac8c \uc881\ud600\uc84c\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 2.5%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ub41c \ubc18\uba74 \uc720\ub85c\uc874 HICP\ub294 2.2% \uc218\uc900\uc778 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 ECB\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ucd94\uac00 \uc644\ud654 \uc5ec\ub825\uc774 \ub354 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5 \ubc0f \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac<\/h3>\n<p>\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc720\ub85c \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810\uc774 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 8\uc6d4 \ub610\ub294 9\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 EUR\/USD \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \ucd94\uad6c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 1.1100 \ubd80\uadfc\uc740 \uc2b9\uc0b0\uacfc \uae30\ub300\uc218\uc775 \uac04 \uade0\ud615 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub2e4\ub9cc \ubbf8\uad6d \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 \uc7ac\uac00\uc18d\ud558\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uac70\ub098, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub2e4\uc74c \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish) \ud1a4\uc744 \ucc44\ud0dd\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \uacbd\uacc4\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc608\uc815\ub41c \ubbf8\uad6d CPI \ubc0f \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \ub2f9\uc0ac \uad00\uc810\uc744 \ud754\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988 \uc5ec\ubd80\ub97c \uac00\ub2a0\ud560 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\ub2e4. \uc720\ub85c\uc874\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 \ub3c5\uc77c \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 PMI\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uc0c1 \ubc16 \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \ud655\uc778\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc720\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ub3d9\uc774 \uac78\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \uc804\ub7b5(\uc608: 1.1000 \ucf5c \ub9e4\uc218 + 1.1200 \ucf5c \ub9e4\ub3c4)\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ucd08\uae30 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0, \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc640 \ubd80\ud569\ud558\ub294 \u2018\uc644\ub9cc\ud55c\u2019 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc778\uc815\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uac15\uc138 \ubdf0\ub97c \ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubcf4\uc218\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud45c\ud604\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc644\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 ECB\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc120\ud589\ud558\ub294 \ud615\ud0dc\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uc218\ub834 \uad6d\uba74\uc740 \uc720\ub85c\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \ub9ce\uc558\ub2e4. \uc608\ucee8\ub300 2020\ub144 \ub9d0\uc758 \ub7a0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub450 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uac04 \uae08\ub9ac \uae30\ub300 \uaca9\ucc28\uac00 \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\uac8c \ucd95\uc18c\ub418\ub358 \uc2dc\uae30\uc640 \ub9de\ubb3c\ub838\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \ud658\uacbd \uc5ed\uc2dc \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138 \ud328\ud134\uc744 \uc7ac\ud604\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc73c\ub85c, EUR\/USD\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc778 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\uc720\ub85c\/\ub2ec\ub7ec, \ubc18\uc804 \uc2e0\ud638\ud0c4?\u201d ABN AMRO\ub294 \ubbf8\u00b7\uc720\ub85c\uc874 \uc131\uc7a5\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc218\ub834\uacfc \uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28 \ucd95\uc18c\ub85c \uc720\ub85c \uac15\uc138\ub97c \uc804\ub9dd. \ub2e4\ub9cc Fed \ub9e4\ud30c\u00b7ECB \uc870\uae30\uc644\ud654 \ub550 \uc0c1\ub2e8 \uc81c\ud55c\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47677,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48982","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48982"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48982\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47677"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}