{"id":48957,"date":"2026-06-17T16:53:39","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T16:53:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ed%99%94-1-1600%ec%84%a0-%ed%95%98%ed%9a%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%9c-%ec%a3%bc%eb%8f%84-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%8b%a0%ed%98%b8%ec%99%80-%ec%a7%80%ec%a0%95\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T16:53:39","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T16:53:39","slug":"%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ed%99%94-1-1600%ec%84%a0-%ed%95%98%ed%9a%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%9c-%ec%a3%bc%eb%8f%84-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%8b%a0%ed%98%b8%ec%99%80-%ec%a7%80%ec%a0%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%ed%99%94-1-1600%ec%84%a0-%ed%95%98%ed%9a%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%9c-%ec%a3%bc%eb%8f%84-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%8b%a0%ed%98%b8%ec%99%80-%ec%a7%80%ec%a0%95\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc720\ub85c\ud654, 1.1600\uc120 \ud558\ud68c\u2026\uc2dc\uc7a5, \uc6cc\uc2dc \uc8fc\ub3c4 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc2e0\ud638\uc640 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uace0\uc870 \uc8fc\ubaa9"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc720\ub85c\ud654\ub294 18\uc77c(\ud604\uc9c0\uc2dc\uac04) \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70 \ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84\uc744 \uc77c\ubd80 \ubc18\ub0a9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900) \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uacbd\uacc4\uc2ec\uc744 \ub192\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774\ub2e4. EUR\/USD\ub294 1.1600\uc120\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ud558\ud68c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc804\ub0a0(\ud654\uc694\uc77c) \uac70\ub798 \ubc94\uc704 \ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC) \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \ud68c\uc758\ub294 \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ucd94\uc9c4\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc \uc758\uc7a5\uc744 \uc784\uba85\ud55c \uc774\ud6c4 \uccab \ud68c\uc758\ub85c, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\ubb38\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uc5f4\ub9ac\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub3fc, \uad00\uc2ec\uc740 \uc6cc\uc2dc \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac\uacfc \uc218\uc815 \uacbd\uc81c\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc73c\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac00\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uadf8\uac00 \u2018\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(Dot Plot)\u2019\uc5d0 \ucc38\uc5ec\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uad00\uce21\ub3c4 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4. 5\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4\ub294 \uc804\uc6d4\uacfc \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub3fc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc989\uac01\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\uc740 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc77c \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \ubb34\uc5ed \ud569\uc758\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ucd94\uac00 \uc138\ubd80 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \uae30\ub2e4\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\ub3c4 \uace0\uc870\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780\uc740 \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uc774 \ub808\ubc14\ub17c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacf5\uaca9\uc744 \uc9c0\uc18d\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \u201c\uac15\uacbd\ud55c \ub300\uc751\u201d\uc744 \uacbd\uace0\ud588\uace0, \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 G7\uc5d0\uc11c \ud569\uc758\uc5d0 \ub9cc\uc871\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \u201c\ud3ed\uaca9 \uc7ac\uac1c(dropping bombs)\u201d\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uac08 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4. \uc720\ub85c\uc874\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 5\uc6d4 HICP(\uc870\ud654\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218) \ud655\uc815\uce58\uac00 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.2%, \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0.1%\ub85c \uc7a0\uc815\uce58\uc640 \ubd80\ud569\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uadfc\uc6d0 HICP\ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 2.5%\uc5d0\uc11c 2.6%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc815\ucc45 \uad34\ub9ac\uc640 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131<\/h3>\n<p>\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\ub85c \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4\uc640 \uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(ECB) \uac04 \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc758 \uad34\ub9ac\uac00 \ud655\ub300\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc0c8 \uc9c0\ub3c4\ubd80 \uccb4\uc81c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \ud06c\uac8c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud574\uc9c4 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c \ud55c \ub2ec\uac04 9%\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud55c EUR\/USD \uc635\uc158\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubd88\uc548 \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub97c \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\u2018\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\u2019\uac00 \ud3d0\uc9c0\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc758\uc874\ud574\uc628 \ud575\uc2ec \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\uac00 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4dc\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud558\uba70, \uc6cc\uc2dc \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uc9c1\uc811 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc5d0 \ub354 \ubbfc\uac10\ud558\uac8c \ubc18\uc751\ud558\ub3c4\ub85d \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 5\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d CPI\uc5d0\uc11c \uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 3.6%\ub85c \ub048\uc801\ud55c(sticky) \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2e0\ud638\ub294 \u2018\ube45 \uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988\u2019\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uace0 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud558\uac8c \uc57d\ud654\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uacfc \ubb34\uad00\ud558\uac8c \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \ub871 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(long straddles)\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubc18\uba74 \ub300\uc11c\uc591 \uac74\ub108 \uc720\ub85c\uc874\uc758 \ucd5c\uc885 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubb38\uc81c\uc784\uc744 \ud655\uc778\uc2dc\ucf30\uace0, \uadfc\uc6d0 HICP\ub294 2.6%\ub85c \uc218\ub144\ub798 \ucd5c\uace0 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 ECB\uac00 \ud604 3.75%\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc7ac\uc735\uc790\uae08\ub9ac(main refinancing rate)\ub97c \uc11c\ub458\ub7ec \uc778\ud558\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uacac\ud574\ub97c \uac15\ud654\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\ub85c\ud654 \ud558\ub2e8\uc744 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ub420 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uacfc \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd<\/h3>\n<p>\uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 \ucde8\uc57d\ud55c \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \ud569\uc758 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ub610 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubcf5\uc7a1\uc131\uc744 \ub354\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc911\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6d0\uc720 \uacf5\uae09\uc744 \uc704\ud611\ud558\ub294 \uc0ac\uac74\uc740 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638(\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc624\ud504)\ub97c \ucd09\ubc1c\ud574 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ud654\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc8fc\uc2dc\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 \uc774\ubc88 \uae34\uc7a5 \uc7ac\uace0\uc870 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ubbf8 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uae09\ub4f1\ud55c \ubc14 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc11c\ub85c \ubc18\ub300 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \ubc00\uc5b4\ubd99\uc774\ub294 \ub3d9\uc778\uc774 \uacf5\uc874\ud558\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c \uc774\ud0c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \uc635\uc158\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ubaa8\uc0c9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. EUR\/USD\uac00 1.1600\uc120 \uc544\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc720\ub85c \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uace0 \uc720\ub85c \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ub9ac\ubc84\uc124(risk reversal) \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc801\uc808\ud574 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uac70\ub798 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc0c1\ubc29 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uac8c \ud574\uc900\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc720\ub85c\ud654, FOMC \uacbd\uacc4\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc57d\uc138\ub85c 1.1600\uc120 \ud558\ud68c. \uc6cc\uc2dc \uc758\uc7a5 \uccb4\uc81c \uccab \ud68c\uc758\uc11c \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\u00b7\uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac \uc8fc\ubaa9. ECB\uc758 \ub048\uc801\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00\ub85c \uc720\ub85c \ud558\ub2e8 \uc9c0\uc9c0, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc5d0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47768,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48957"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48957\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47768"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}