{"id":48949,"date":"2026-06-17T14:54:04","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T14:54:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%97%90%ed%85%8c%ec%a0%9c%eb%84%a4%eb%9e%84-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b3%a0%ec%b0%a9%ed%99%94%eb%a1%9c-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T14:54:04","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T14:54:04","slug":"%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%97%90%ed%85%8c%ec%a0%9c%eb%84%a4%eb%9e%84-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b3%a0%ec%b0%a9%ed%99%94%eb%a1%9c-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%97%90%ed%85%8c%ec%a0%9c%eb%84%a4%eb%9e%84-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b3%a0%ec%b0%a9%ed%99%94%eb%a1%9c-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc18c\uc2dc\uc5d0\ud14c\uc81c\ub124\ub784 \u201c\ubbf8\uad6d \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uace0\ucc29\ud654\ub85c \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\u2026\ub2ec\ub7ec, \uc870\uc815 \uc2dc \ub9e4\uc218\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc18c\uc2dc\uc5d0\ud14c\uc81c\ub124\ub784(Societe Generale)\uc758 \ud0b7 \uc96c\ud06c\uc2a4(Kit Juckes)\ub294 \ub3d9\ud589\uc758 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc218\uc11d \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc580 \ud750\ub8ec(Jan Groen)\uc744 \uc778\uc6a9\ud574, \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\uacfc \ub048\uc801\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ubc30\uacbd\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900(Fed)\uc740 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uae30\uc870\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c4\ub2e8\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc7ac\uac00\uc18d\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc5f4\uc5b4\ub458 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.3%\ub85c \uc9c4\ud589 \uc911\uc774\uba70, 6\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc728 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 3.8%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ub354 \ube60\ub978 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \ubd80\ubd84\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 2\ucc28 \ud30c\uae09\ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uc65c\uace1(distortion)\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uae08\ub9ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc 10\uc77c\uac04 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uac00\uaca9 \ubc18\uc601\uc774 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc644\ud654\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub0b4\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30(Q1) \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70 2027\ub144 \ucd08 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \ubb34\uac8c\uac00 \uc2e4\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4. \uac19\uc740 \uba54\ubaa8\ub294 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5, \ud0c0\uc774\ud2b8\ud55c \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5, \uac15\uc138\uc758 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc0c1\ubc29 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub85c \uc9c0\ubaa9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubc30\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc785\uc7a5\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \u2018\ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc(fade)\u2019\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c, \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uacac\uc870\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc9c0\ub0a0\uc218\ub85d \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801 \ucd94\uc138\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\ud68c<\/h3>\n<p>\ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uacac\uc870\ud568\uacfc \uc880\ucc98\ub7fc \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ub192\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud560 \ub54c, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uc2dc\uc77c \ub0b4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uc720\uc778\uc740 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc218\uce58(3.2%)\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae30\uc870 \uc804\ud658\uc744 \uc815\ub2f9\ud654\ud560 \ub9cc\ud07c \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub454\ud654\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud574\uc900\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc\uac04 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \ubc1b\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc774\ub97c \uc57d\uc138 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ubcf4\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub9e4\uc218 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc2dc\uac01\uc744 \ubcf4\uac15\ud55c\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9\uc774 21\ub9cc \uba85 \uc99d\uac00\ud588\uace0 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 3.8%\ub85c \uacac\uc870\ud558\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub410\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uac15\uc138\ub294 \uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c\uc744 \ub5a0\ubc1b\uce58\uace0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc7ac\uac00\uc18d \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ud604\uc2e4\uc801\uc778 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ubc30\uacbd\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uac70\ub798\ub294 2027\ub144 3\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc774 60%\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud568\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5 \ubc0f \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d \uc14b\uc5c5<\/h3>\n<p>\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294, \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ub41c\ub2e4. \ub610 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc811\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money) \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uae08\ub9ac \ucc28(interest rate differentials)\uc758 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ud558\ubc29\uc774 \ub2e8\ub2e8\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\uc81c\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub3d9\uacb0\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ub3d9\uc548 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \uc81c\ud55c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4, \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \ud658\uacbd\uc740 2014~2015\ub144\uacfc \uc720\uc0ac\ud55c \uce21\uba74\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc120\ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc740 \uc644\ud654\uc801 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uace0, \uadf8 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub354 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801(dovish) \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44\ub85c \uac00\uc7a5 \uc591\ud638\ud55c \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \ub0bc \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28\uac00 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\uac8c \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc120\ubb3c \uacc4\uc57d\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 EUR\/USD \uc20f \ub610\ub294 USD\/JPY \ub871 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ubaa8\uc0c9\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc870\uc815\uc740 \ub9e4\uc218 \uae30\ud68c?\u201d \ubbf8 \uc131\uc7a5 \uacac\uc870\u00b7\uc778\ud50c\ub808 \ub048\uc801\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654 \uc804\ub9dd. \uadfc\uc6d0PCE 3%\ub300, \uc7ac\uac00\uc18d \ub550 2026\ub144\ub9d0 \uc778\uc0c1\ub3c4. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\ub294 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc, EUR\/USD \uc20f\u00b7USD\/JPY \ub871 \uc720\ud6a8.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47725,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" 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\/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\uc18c\uc2dc\uc5d0\ud14c\uc81c\ub124\ub784 \u201c\ubbf8\uad6d \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uace0\ucc29\ud654\ub85c \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\u2026\ub2ec\ub7ec, \uc870\uc815 \uc2dc \ub9e4\uc218\u201d - VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u201c\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc870\uc815\uc740 \ub9e4\uc218 \uae30\ud68c?\u201d \ubbf8 \uc131\uc7a5 \uacac\uc870\u00b7\uc778\ud50c\ub808 \ub048\uc801\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654 \uc804\ub9dd. \uadfc\uc6d0PCE 3%\ub300, \uc7ac\uac00\uc18d \ub550 2026\ub144\ub9d0 \uc778\uc0c1\ub3c4. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\ub294 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc, EUR\/USD \uc20f\u00b7USD\/JPY \ub871 \uc720\ud6a8.\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" 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\ub3d9\uacb0 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654 \uc804\ub9dd. \uadfc\uc6d0PCE 3%\ub300, \uc7ac\uac00\uc18d \ub550 2026\ub144\ub9d0 \uc778\uc0c1\ub3c4. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\ub294 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc, EUR\/USD \uc20f\u00b7USD\/JPY \ub871 \uc720\ud6a8.\" \/>\n\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"aioseo-schema\">\n\t\t\t{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"BlogPosting\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vtmarkets.com\\\/kr-asia\\\/live-updates\\\/%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%97%90%ed%85%8c%ec%a0%9c%eb%84%a4%eb%9e%84-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b3%a0%ec%b0%a9%ed%99%94%eb%a1%9c-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80\\\/#blogposting\",\"name\":\"\\uc18c\\uc2dc\\uc5d0\\ud14c\\uc81c\\ub124\\ub784 \\u201c\\ubbf8\\uad6d \\uc778\\ud50c\\ub808\\uc774\\uc158 \\uace0\\ucc29\\ud654\\ub85c \\uc5f0\\uc900 \\uae08\\ub9ac \\ub3d9\\uacb0\\u2026\\ub2ec\\ub7ec, \\uc870\\uc815 \\uc2dc \\ub9e4\\uc218\\u201d - VT 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