{"id":48947,"date":"2026-06-17T14:23:44","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T14:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%97%90%ed%85%8c%ec%a0%9c%eb%84%a4%eb%9e%84-%eb%af%b8%c2%b7%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ed%95%a9%ec%9d%98-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%eb%b8%8c%eb%a0%8c%ed%8a%b8%ec%9c%a0-%ec%a0%95%ec%83%81\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T14:23:44","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T14:23:44","slug":"%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%97%90%ed%85%8c%ec%a0%9c%eb%84%a4%eb%9e%84-%eb%af%b8%c2%b7%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ed%95%a9%ec%9d%98-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%eb%b8%8c%eb%a0%8c%ed%8a%b8%ec%9c%a0-%ec%a0%95%ec%83%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%97%90%ed%85%8c%ec%a0%9c%eb%84%a4%eb%9e%84-%eb%af%b8%c2%b7%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ed%95%a9%ec%9d%98-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%eb%b8%8c%eb%a0%8c%ed%8a%b8%ec%9c%a0-%ec%a0%95%ec%83%81\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc18c\uc2dc\uc5d0\ud14c\uc81c\ub124\ub784, \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \ud569\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654 \u2018\ubd88\uade0\ub4f1\u2019 \uacbd\uace0\u2026\ud604\ubb3c\uc740 \uc548\uc815\uc138, \uc2a4\ud050\ub294 \uc9c0\uc18d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8\uad6d-\uc774\ub780 \ud569\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8 \ubca4\uce58\ub9c8\ud06c\ub294 **\ubd88\uade0\ub4f1\ud55c \uc815\uc0c1\ud654(uneven normalisation)** \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc18c\uc2dc\uc5d0\ud14c\uc81c\ub124\ub784(Societe Generale)\uc740 \ud604\ubb3c(spot), \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(volatility), \uc635\uc158 \uc2a4\ud050(option skew)\ub97c 2026\ub144 \ucd08 \u2018\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub808\uc2a4\u2019 \uad6c\uac04\uc758 \uae30\uc900\uc810\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud574 \ucd94\uc801\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc740\ud589\uc740 \ud604\ubb3c\uc744 **\ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8 4\ubc88\uc9f8 \uc6d4\ubb3c(4th Brent future)**\ub85c \uce21\uc815\ud558\uba70, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8 \uc120\ubb3c\uc758 **3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(3\u2011month implied volatility)**\uc73c\ub85c \ub300\uccb4 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc2a4\ud050\ub294 **25% \ub378\ud0c0 \ucf5c \uc635\uc158 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \/ 25% \ub378\ud0c0 \ud48b \uc635\uc158 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131**\uc758 \ube44\uc728\ub85c \ud3ec\ucc29\ud574, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uac01 \uc138\uadf8\uba3c\ud2b8 \uac04\uc744 \ub3d9\uc77c \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ube44\uad50\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub3c4\ub85d \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub808\uc2a4 \uac8c\uc774\uc9c0\ub294 2026\ub144 \ucd08 \uc218\uc900\uc744 **0%**, 2026\ub144 \uc911 \uace0\uc810\uc744 **100%**\ub85c \uc124\uc815\ud558\uace0, \uac01 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uace0\uc810 \ub300\ube44 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc(retracement)\ub410\ub294\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd98\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc9c0\ud45c\ubcc4 \uc2dc\uac04\ucd95\uc740 \ub2e4\ub974\ub2e4. \ucd5c\ub300 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub808\uc2a4\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \uba3c\uc800 \uad00\uce21\ub410\uc73c\uba70(2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 12\uc77c), \uc774\ub294 \ud604\ubb3c, \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131, 25% \ub378\ud0c0 \uc2a4\ud050 \uc9c0\ud45c \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0\uc11c **\uc815\uc0c1\ud654 \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \uade0\uc77c\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4**\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \ubd80\uac01\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc6d0\uc720\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751\uacfc \ubd88\uade0\ub4f1\ud55c \uc815\uc0c1\ud654<\/h3>\n<p>\ubbf8\uad6d-\uc774\ub780 \ud569\uc758\uac00 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uc131\uc0ac\ub41c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\uba74\uc11c, \uc6d0\uc720\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 2026\ub144 \ucd08\uc758 \ub192\uc740 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub808\uc2a4 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uc9c4\uc815\ub418\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc815\uc0c1\ud654 \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uac01 \ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5c7\uac08\ub9b0\ub2e4. \ud604\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131, \uc635\uc158 \uc2a4\ud050 \uac04 \uad34\ub9ac\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \ud2b9\uc815 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 3\uc6d4 12\uc77c \uace0\uc810 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae09\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 CBOE \uc6d0\uc720 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc218(OVX)\ub294 50\uc744 \uc6c3\ub3cc\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 28\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub0b4\ub824\uc640 1\ub144\uc5ec \ub9cc\uc758 \ucd5c\uc800\uce58\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uae09\ub77d\uc740 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4(selling volatility)\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5bb\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc5c8\ub358 \u2018\uac00\uc7a5 \uc26c\uc6b4\u2019 \uc218\uc775 \uad6c\uac04\uc774 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc0c1\ub2f9 \ubd80\ubd84 \uc18c\uc9c4\ub410\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>4\ubc88\uc9f8 \uc6d4\ubb3c\ub85c \ucd94\uc801\ub418\ub294 \ud604\ubb3c(\uc804\ubc29 \uc120\ubb3c \uae30\ubc18) \uac00\uaca9\ub3c4 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8 \uae30\uc900 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 75\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ud558\ubc29 \uacbd\uc9c1\uc131\uc744 \ud615\uc131\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc774\ub780\uc774 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc77c\uc77c \uc57d 50\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4\ub85c \ucd94\uc815\ub418\ub294 \uc218\ucd9c\uc744 \ub298\ub9b0 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc2e0\uaddc \uacf5\uae09\uc758 \uc0c1\ub2f9 \ubd80\ubd84\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub410\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac\ub85c\uc11c\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d \uad6d\uba74\uc740 \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \uc9c0\ub098\uac04 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud310\ub2e8\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc635\uc158 \uc2a4\ud050, \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5, OPEC+ \ubcc0\uc218<\/h3>\n<p>\uac00\uc7a5 \ud765\ubbf8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc2a4\ud050\uc5d0\uc11c \ub098\uc628\ub2e4. \uc2a4\ud050\ub294 \uac15\uc138(\ucf5c) \uc635\uc158 \ub300\ube44 \uc57d\uc138(\ud48b) \uc635\uc158\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uce21\uc815\ud55c\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4, \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \ud48b \uc218\uc694\ub294 \ucf5c \ub300\ube44 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uacac\uc870\ud558\ub2e4. \uc989 \ud45c\uba74\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc548\uc815\ub41c \ub4ef \ubcf4\uc5ec\ub3c4, \ud558\ubc29 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacbd\uacc4\uc2ec\uc774 \uc794\uc874\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc800\ub834\ud574\uc9c4 \ucf5c\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ucee8\ub300 \uc0c1\ubc29 \ucf5c\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\uace0, \uadf8 \uc7ac\uc6d0\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ubc29 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc6a9 \ud48b\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ucf5c\ub77c(collar)\ub97c \uad6c\uc131\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubbf8\ubb18\ud55c \ud558\ub77d \uacbd\uacc4\uc2ec\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4, \uc804\ubc18\uc801 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c4 \ud604\uc7ac \uc5ec\uac74\uc5d0 \ubd80\ud569\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 \uc774\ub780 \uacf5\uae09 \uc99d\uac00\uc5d0 OPEC+\uac00 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ub300\uc751\ud558\ub290\ub0d0\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud560 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70 2014~2016\ub144 \uacf5\uae09 \uacfc\uc789 \uad6d\uba74\ucc98\ub7fc, \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc790 \uadf8\ub8f9\uc758 \uac10\uc0b0 \uc758\uc9c0\uac00 \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub2e8\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud574\uc654\ub2e4. OPEC+\uac00 \uc774\ub780 \ubb3c\ub7c9\uc744 \uc218\uc6a9\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \u2018\uacf5\uac04\u2019 \ub9c8\ub828\uc5d0 \uc8fc\uc800\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0, \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc7ac\uc810\ud654\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \ud569\uc758 \ud6c4 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8 \u2018\ubd88\uade0\ub4f1\ud55c \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\u2019\u2026\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \uae09\ub77d\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud604\ubb3c\uc740 75\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubc84\ud2f0\uace0 \uc2a4\ud050\ub294 \ud48b \uc218\uc694 \uacac\uc870. SG \u201c\ucf5c\ub77c \uc804\ub7b5 \uc720\ud6a8, OPEC+ \ub300\uc751\uc774 \ud558\ubc29 \ucd09\ubc1c\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47699,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \ud569\uc758 \ud6c4 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8 \u2018\ubd88\uade0\ub4f1\ud55c \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\u2019\u2026\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \uae09\ub77d\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud604\ubb3c\uc740 75\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubc84\ud2f0\uace0 \uc2a4\ud050\ub294 \ud48b \uc218\uc694 \uacac\uc870. 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