{"id":48941,"date":"2026-06-17T12:53:57","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T12:53:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/rba%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-aud-usd-0-7050%ec%84%a0-%ec%83%81%ed%9a%8c\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T12:53:57","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T12:53:57","slug":"rba%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-aud-usd-0-7050%ec%84%a0-%ec%83%81%ed%9a%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/rba%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-aud-usd-0-7050%ec%84%a0-%ec%83%81%ed%9a%8c\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc5f0\uc900 \uacb0\uc815 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 AUD\/USD 0.7050\uc120 \uc0c1\ud68c"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/USD\ub294 \ud654\uc694\uc77c \ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBA)\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ub3d9\uacb0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ubc18\ub4f1 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0, \uc218\uc694\uc77c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc774\ud2c0\uc9f8 \uc57d\uc138 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc774\ud2c0 \uc77c\uc815\uc758 \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC) \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uae30\ub2e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 0.7050\uc120\uc740 \uc9c0\ucf1c\ub0c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\ub294 \uc774\ub0a0 \ubbf8\uc7a5 \ud6c4\ubc18 \uacb0\uc815 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc774\uba70, \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \ub3d9\uacb0\ud558\ub418 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc644\uace0\ud55c(sticky) \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \uc644\ud654 \uc131\ud5a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ud55c \ubc1c \ubb3c\ub7ec\uc124 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ucd08\uc810\uc740 \uc131\uba85\uc11c, \uc218\uc815 \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd(SEP), \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(dot plot)\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0\uc838 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc Fed \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac\uc774 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uacfc \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \ubaa8\uba58\ud140\uc744 \uc88c\uc6b0\ud560 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ubca4\ud2b8 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ud22c\uc790\uc2ec\ub9ac\ub294 2026\ub144 \ucd08 \ubc1c\ubc1c\ud55c \uc804\uc7c1\uc744 \uc885\uc2dd\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \uc784\uc2dc \ud3c9\ud654 \ud504\ub808\uc784\uc6cc\ud06c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub099\uad00\ub860\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\uc558\ub2e4. \uc591\uce21\uc758 \uc591\ud574\uac01\uc11c(MOU)\uc5d0\ub294 60\uc77c \ud734\uc804, \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uc7ac\uac1c\ubc29, \uc774\ub780 \ud575 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8 \uad00\ub828 \uae30\uc220 \ud611\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ub85c\ub4dc\ub9f5\uc774 \ub2f4\uacbc\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc6d4\uc694\uc77c \uae30\ub85d\ud55c \uc8fc\uac04 \uc800\uc810 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\uac8c \ud588\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 RBA \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\uac00 \ub354\ud574\uc9c0\uba70 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec(AUD)\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub825\uc774 \ud615\uc131\ub410\ub2e4. RBA\ub294 \uc774\uc804 \uae34\ucd95\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \uc810\uac80\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 4.35%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \ud615\uc131\ub41c \uc57d 4\ub144\ub798 \uace0\uc810(0.7275~0.7280)\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc870\uc815 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ub2e8\uc21c \ucd94\uaca9\ud558\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>FOMC Decision and Event-Driven Volatility<\/h3>\n<p>\ub2f9\uc0ac\ub294 AUD\/USD\uac00 0.7050\uc120 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c \uc870\uc815\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc774\ub0a0 \uc608\uc815\ub41c Fed \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc228\uc8fd\uc5ec \uae30\ub2e4\ub9ac\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc RBA\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ub3d9\uacb0\uc740 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d \ud558\ub2e8\uc744 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ub2e4\uc74c \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\uc778\uc740 Fed\uc758 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uac00 \ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>5\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d CPI\uac00 3.8%\ub85c \ub048\uc801\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc7ac\ud655\uc778\ud55c \ub9cc\ud07c, Fed\uac00 \uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud560 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub294 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc0ac\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd(\uc885\ucc29\uae08\ub9ac) \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc5ec\ubd80\ub97c \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc9d1\uc911 \uc810\uac80\ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc774\ub2e4. \uc6cc\uc2dc \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uccab \uc8fc\uc694 \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc758\uc874\uc801(data-dependent)\uc774\uba70 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc5b5\uc81c\uc5d0 \ubc29\uc810\uc744 \ub454 \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub97c \uac15\uc870\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Impact of Geopolitics and Australian Fundamentals<\/h3>\n<p>\ucd5c\uadfc \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \ud3c9\ud654 \ud504\ub808\uc784\uc6cc\ud06c\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \uc5ed\ud48d\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uba70, \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638\ub97c \uc57d\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uc7ac\uac1c\ubc29 \uc18c\uc2dd \uc774\ud6c4 \uc720\uac00\ub294 \uc555\ubc15\uc744 \ubc1b\uc558\uace0, WTI\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc 95\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c 88\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubd80\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638 \uac1c\uc120\uc740 \ud1b5\uc0c1 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac19\uc740 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc5f0\ub3d9 \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub2f9\uc0ac\uc758 \ud3c9\uac00\ub294 RBA\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uacbd\uace0\uac00 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ucabd\uc774\ub2e4. \ud638\uc8fc\uc758 1\ubd84\uae30 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 4.5%\ub85c \ub192\uace0, 5\uc6d4 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc774 3.9%\ub85c \uacac\uc870\ud574 \ud0c0\uc774\ud2b8\ud55c \uace0\uc6a9\uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \ud655\uc778\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uba85\ubd84\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud638\uc8fc \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138\uc758 \uae30\ucd08 \uccb4\ub825\uc774 AUD\/USD\uc758 \ud070 \ud3ed \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>FOMC \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uac00 \u2018\uc591\uc790\ud0dd\uc77c\u2019 \uc131\uaca9\uc744 \ub760\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131 \ubca0\ud305\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. AUD\/USD 1\uc8fc\ubb3c \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 14.5%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae09\ub4f1\ud574, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5b4\ub290 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c\ub4e0 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\ud3ed\uc744 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle)\u00b7\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(strangle) \uac19\uc740 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec 0.7280 \ubd80\uadfc(\uc57d 4\ub144\ub798 \uace0\uc810)\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \u2018\uac74\uc804\ud55c \uc870\uc815\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2022\ub144 \uae34\ucd95 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \u2018\uc77c\uc2dc \uc815\uc9c0\u2019\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc885\ub8cc\ub97c \uc758\ubbf8\ud558\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ud655\uc778\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \uc7a0\uc2dc \uba48\ucda4\uc774\uc5c8\ub358 \uad6c\uac04\ub4e4\uacfc \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\ub2e4. Fed\uac00 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ub3d9\uacb0\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc740 0.6900\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ubc00\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, \uc911\ub9bd\uc801 \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub77c\uba74 0.7200\uc120 \uc7ac\uc2dc\ud5d8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc5f4\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FOMC \uc55e\ub450\uace0 AUD\/USD, RBA \ub9e4\ud30c \ub3d9\uacb0\uc5d0\ub3c4 0.7050 \ubd80\uadfc \uc57d\uc138. \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \ud734\uc804 \ud504\ub808\uc784 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc555\ubc15, \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\u00b7\uc6cc\uc2dc \ud68c\uacac\uc774 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ucd09\ubc1c. 0.69~0.72 \uac08\ub9bc\uae38.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47785,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48941","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48941","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48941"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48941\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47785"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48941"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48941"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48941"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}