EUR\/USD\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uc77c \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uc7a5 \ucd08\ubc18 1.1610\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\ud569\uad8c\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ub0a0 \ub2a6\uac8c \ub098\uc62c \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed) \uacb0\uc815\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \ubbf8\uad6d 5\uc6d4 \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uae30\ub2e4\ub9ac\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\ub2e4. Fed\ub294 6\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba70, \uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub2e8\uc11c\ub97c \uc5bb\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac\uc5d0 \uad00\uc2ec\uc774 \uc3e0\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 25bp \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 42.6%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc838 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc5d0\ub294 \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ubcc0\uc218\ub3c4 \ud575\uc2ec \uad00\uc804 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub85c \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \ud569\uc758 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc720\ub85c\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 JD \ubc34\uc2a4\uac00 \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uac00 \uae08\uc694\uc77c \uc774\uc804 \uc774\ub780\uacfc\uc758 \uc804\uc7c1\uc744 \ub05d\ub0b4\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc608\ube44 \ud569\uc758\ub97c \uacf5\uac1c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8, \ubc30\uacbd\uc5d0\ub294 Fed\uc758 2% \ubb3c\uac00 \ubaa9\ud45c\uc640 \u2018\ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\uc815-\uc644\uc804\uace0\uc6a9\u2019\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc774\uc911 \ucc45\ubb34\uac00 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc591\uc801\uc644\ud654(QE)\uc640 \uc591\uc801\uae34\ucd95(QT) \uac19\uc740 \uc218\ub2e8\uc774 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uc5ec\uac74\uc744 \uc88c\uc6b0\ud574 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4\uac00 \uc624\ub298 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ucd08\uc810\uc740 \uc804\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc6cc\uc2dc \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740 \uc608\uc0c1\uc678\ub85c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\uc774\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \uc815\uce58\uc801 \uc555\ubc15\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc\uc758 \uc2f8\uc6c0\uc774 \ub05d\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134\uc758 \uc694\uad6c\uc640 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc774\ub97c \uc18c\ud654\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uad6d\uba74\uc744 \uc870\uc131\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
Fed\ubc1c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc740 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ubc18 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \ubbf8\uad6d \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \uadfc\uc6d0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 3.4%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc644\uace0\ud558\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098 Fed\uc758 \uac15\uacbd \uae30\uc870\uc5d0 \ud798\uc744 \uc2e4\uc5c8\ub2e4. EUR\/USD 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \ub0ae\uc740 6.1% \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb34\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc5b4\ub290 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774\ub4e0 \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle) \ub610\ub294 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(strangle) \ub9e4\uc218 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 25bp \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 65% \uc774\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc 42.6%\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \uc62c\ub77c\uc120 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc7ac\uac00\uaca9\ud654\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ud558\ub2e8\uc744 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud560 \uacf5\uc0b0\uc774 \ud06c\uba70, \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \ucd09\ub9e4 \uc5c6\uc774\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc704\ud5d8\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4. EUR\/USD\uac00 1.1650\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\ub4f1\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc774\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud575\uc2ec \uc640\uc77c\ub4dc\uce74\ub4dc\ub294 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \ud569\uc758\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \u2018\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uc628(risk-on)\u2019 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uac00 \ud604\uc2e4\ud654\ub418\uba74 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uace0, \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 81\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\ub294 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uae09\ub77d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 Fed\uc758 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ud310\ub2e8\uc744 \ud55c\uce35 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uba70 \uc720\ub85c \uac15\uc138(\uc720\ub85c\ud654 \ub7a0\ub9ac)\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud574\ub2f9 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uc758 \uc591\uc790\ud0dd\uc77c\uc801 \uc131\uaca9\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub54c, \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money) EUR\/USD \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1 \ubc16\uc758 \ud3c9\ud654 \ud569\uc758\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uc800\ube44\uc6a9 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd \uc218\ub2e8\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud569\uc758\uac00 \ud655\uc778\ub418\uba74 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc774 1.1700 \uc800\ud56d\uc120\uc744 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc0c1\ud5a5 \ub3cc\ud30c\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud611\uc0c1\uc774 \uacb0\ub82c\ub418\uace0 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc77c \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d0\ub3c4, \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \ud558\ubc29 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub610\ud55c 5\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc18c\ube44 \uc5ec\ub825\uc744 \uc810\uac80\ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc774\ub2e4. 4\uc6d4 \uc218\uce58\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uac15\ud55c 0.4% \uc99d\uac00\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c8\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uba74 Fed\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \uc218\uce58\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ubd80\uc0c1\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uac00\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u201c\uc5f0\uc900\u00b7\uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \u2018\ube45 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\u2019 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uc228 \uace0\ub974\ub294 EUR\/USD\u201d 1.1610 \ubcf4\ud569. \uae08\ub9ac\ub3d9\uacb0 \uc18d \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\u00b7\uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4\uac00 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ubc29\ud5a5 \uacb0\uc815. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud569\uc758 \ub550 \uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638\u00b7\uc720\ub85c \uac15\uc138, \ub9e4\ud30c \ub550 \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47723,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48912"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48912\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47723"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}