AUD\/USD\ub294 \ud654\uc694\uc77c RBA(\ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uac00 \ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 4.35%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud55c \uc774\ud6c4 0.7070 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc18c\ud3ed \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uc815\uc740 \uc55e\uc120 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae34\ucd95 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \u2018\uc77c\uc2dc \uc911\ub2e8(\ud30c\uc988)\u2019\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud55c \uac83\uc774\uba70, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uace0\ucc29\ud654\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc5f4\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc7ac\ucc28 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ud638\uc8fc 1\ubd84\uae30(Q1) \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 0.3%\uc5d0 \uadf8\uce58\uace0 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc774 4.5%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\ub294 \ub4f1 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \ub454\ud654\ub410\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ucd08\uc810\uc774 \uc62e\uaca8\uac00\uba74\uc11c \uac00\uaca9 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ubbf8\uad6d \uce21\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed) \uc815\ucc45\uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ubcf4\ud569\uad8c\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc \uc758\uc7a5\uc774 \uc8fc\uc7ac\ud558\ub294 \uccab \ud68c\uc758\ub85c, \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \ub3d9\uacb0\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uc62c\ud574 \ud6c4\ubc18 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \uc7ac\uac1c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec \uad00\uc804 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub85c \uaf3d\ud78c\ub2e4. \uae30\uc220\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 4\uc2dc\uac04 \ucc28\ud2b8\uc5d0\uc11c 0.7071\ub85c, 20\uae30\uac04 \ub2e8\uc21c\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0(SMA) 0.7057\uacfc 0.7069 \ubd80\uadfc \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120 \uc704\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70 RSI\ub294 56 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4. \uc800\ud56d\uc740 0.7080, \uc774\uc5b4 100\uae30\uac04 SMA 0.7106\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub418\uace0, \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc740 0.7069, 0.7057, 0.7056, 0.7043\uc5d0 \uc704\uce58\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
RBA\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 4.35%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud55c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \u2018\uc5c7\uac08\ub9b0 \uc2e0\ud638\u2019\uac00 \uacf5\uc874\ud558\ub294 \uad6d\uba74\uc73c\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4. RBA\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uacbd\uace0\ub294 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc9c0\ud45c \ub454\ud654\uc640 \ub9de\ubb3c\ub824 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec(AUD)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ud638\uc8fc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 \uc804\ub144\ub3d9\uae30 \ub300\ube44 4.1%\ub85c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub048\uc801\ub048\uc801\ud55c(sticky) \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \uc131\uc7a5\uc138 \ub454\ud654\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 RBA\uac00 \uacbd\uacc4\uac10\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ubc30\uacbd\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5ec\ub825\uc740 \uae30\ucd08 \uccb4\ub825\uacfc \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \ub354 \uc81c\ud55c\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 5\uc6d4 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc774 4.4%\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uace0\uc6a9 \ucc3d\ucd9c\uc740 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud588\uace0, \ucca0\uad11\uc11d \uac00\uaca9\ub3c4 \ud1a4\ub2f9 115\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\uac8c \uc0c1\ud5a5 \ub3cc\ud30c\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc131\ud5a5\uc744 \ub760\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 AUD\uac00 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \ub7a0\ub9ac\ub97c \uc9c0\uc18d\ud560 \ub9cc\ud55c \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138 \uac15\ub3c4\ub294 \ubd80\uc871\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\uc81c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc \uc758\uc7a5 \uccb4\uc81c \uccab \uc5f0\uc900 \ud68c\uc758\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac00\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 5\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 3.5%\ub85c \ub2e4\uc18c \ub728\uac81\uac8c(hot) \ub098\uc624\uace0 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00\ub3c4 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uba74\uc11c, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub294 \ucda9\ubd84\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 AUD\/USD\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uba70, \ud68c\uc758\uac00 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548\uc740 0.7050 \ubd80\uadfc\uc758 \uac15\ud55c \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc640 0.7100 \ubd80\uadfc\uc758 \uae30\uc220\uc801 \uc800\ud56d \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04\uc740 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4(\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 \uc218\ucde8) \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc774\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ud658\uc728\uc774 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\uc81c\ud558\uc5d0, \uc678\uac00\uaca9 \ud48b\uacfc \ucf5c\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uc20f \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(short strangle) \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc5f0\uc900 \ud68c\uc758 \uc790\uccb4\ub294 \ud574\ub2f9 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c\uc744 \uae68\ub728\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc911\ub300 \ucd09\ub9e4\ub2e4. \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131 \ub3cc\ud30c \uc2dc \uc218\uc775\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ub871 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(long straddle) \ub4f1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\uc218 \uc804\ub7b5\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uc5d0 \ub354 \uadfc\uc811\ud55c \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \uc9c4\uc785 \ud0c0\uc774\ubc0d\uc744 \uc7a1\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c, \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \uc7a5\uae30\uac04 \ubcf4\uc720\ud558\uba74 \ud658\uc728\uc774 \uc870\uc6a9\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc77c \ub54c \ube44\uc6a9 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\uac01\uc740 \ud638\uc8fc \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654\uc640 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uae30\uc758 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801 \uacac\uc870\ud568 \ub300\ube44\ub97c \uac10\uc548\ud560 \ub54c \u2018\uc870\uc2ec\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \uc57d\uc138(\ubca0\uc5b4\ub9ac\uc2dc)\u2019\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c \uc704\ud5d8\uc73c\ub85c \ud45c\ud604\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(put option spreads)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\uac00 \ud558\ub77d \ucd09\ubc1c \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0\ub97c \uaca8\ub0e5\ud558\ub418, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\ub97c \ub2e4\ub974\uac8c \ud574\uc11d\ud560 \ub54c\uc758 \ub178\ucd9c\uc744 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ud0a4\uc6b0\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub3c4\ub85d \ud574\uc900\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBA \uae08\ub9ac 4.35% \ub3d9\uacb0\uc5d0\ub3c4 AUD\/USD 0.7070\uc120 \uc57d\uc138\u2026\uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654\u00b7\uc2e4\uc5c5 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \ubc1c\ubaa9. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc6cc\uc2dc \uc758\uc7a5 \uccab FOMC \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4 \uc8fc\uc2dc, 0.7050~0.7100 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc804\ub7b5 \ubd80\uac01.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47830,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48897","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48897"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48897\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48897"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48897"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48897"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}