{"id":48830,"date":"2026-06-16T08:24:06","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T08:24:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%eb%af%b8%c2%b7%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ed%98%91%ec%83%81%ec%97%90%eb%8f%84-%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%ac%b4%ec%a6%88-%ed%95%b4%ed%98%91-%ed%86%b5%ea%b3%bc\/"},"modified":"2026-06-16T08:24:06","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T08:24:06","slug":"%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%eb%af%b8%c2%b7%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ed%98%91%ec%83%81%ec%97%90%eb%8f%84-%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%ac%b4%ec%a6%88-%ed%95%b4%ed%98%91-%ed%86%b5%ea%b3%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%eb%af%b8%c2%b7%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ed%98%91%ec%83%81%ec%97%90%eb%8f%84-%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%ac%b4%ec%a6%88-%ed%95%b4%ed%98%91-%ed%86%b5%ea%b3%bc\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c \u201c\ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \ud611\uc0c1\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \ud1b5\uacfc \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uc9c0\uc18d\u2026\uc6d0\uc720 \ud750\ub984 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654 \uc2dc\uc810 \ubd88\ud22c\uba85\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c(Rabobank)\ub294 \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \uac04 \uc774\ud574(understanding) \uc9c4\uc804 \ubcf4\ub3c4\uac00 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \ud574\uc18c\ud558\uc9c0\ub294 \ubabb\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ud569\uc758\ub41c \uac83\uc740 \uc9e7\uc740 \uba54\ubaa8\ub79c\ub364(memorandum)\uc5d0 \ubd88\uacfc\ud558\uace0 \ud575\uc2ec \uc138\ubd80\uc0ac\ud56d\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubbf8\uacb0\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc774\uc720\ub2e4. \ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\ub294 \uc720\ub7c9(\ubb3c\ub3d9\ub7c9) \uc815\uc0c1\ud654 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9b0\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2f9\uad6d\uc790 1\uba85\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc1a1 \uc7ac\uac1c\uae4c\uc9c0 1~2\uc8fc\uac00 \uac78\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud574\uc6b4 \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 40~50\uc77c\uc744 \uac70\ub860\ud574 \uc654\ub2e4. \uc124\ub839 \uc7ac\uac1c\uac00 \uc774\ub904\uc9c0\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \u2018\uac07\ud600 \uc788\ub358\u2019 \uc120\ubc15\ub4e4\uc774 \ud55c\uaebc\ubc88\uc5d0 \ube60\uc838\ub098\uac00\ub294 \uc5d1\uc18c\ub354\uc2a4\uac00 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uba74 \ud654\ubb3c\uc774 \ucd5c\uc885 \uc218\uc694\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ucc29\ud558\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc218 \uc8fc\uac00 \ub354 \uac78\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc774\ub0a0 \uc544\uce68 \uc774\ub780 \uc720\uc870\uc120 3\ucc99\uacfc \ud544\uc218 \ubb3c\uc790 \uc6b4\ubc18\uc120 2\ucc99\uc774 \ubbf8 \ud574\uad70 \ubd09\uc1c4\ub97c \ud1b5\uacfc\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub780\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc\uc758 60\uc77c \ud611\uc0c1 \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc120\ubc15\ub4e4\uc774 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc744 \uc790\uc720\ub86d\uac8c \ud1b5\uacfc\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \ud1b5\ud589\ub8cc(de facto tolls)\ub97c \ubd80\uacfc\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc785\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c, \uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134\uc740 \uc774\ub97c \ubc18\ub300\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\ub294 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc2dc\uac04\ud45c\uac00, \ud56d\ub85c\ub97c \uc774\ud0c8\ud55c \uc6d0\uc720 \uc6b4\ubc18\uc120\ub4e4\uc774 \uc7ac\uc9c4\uc785 \uc5ec\ubd80\ub97c \uc800\uc6b8\uc9c8\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6b4\uc601\uc0c1 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b4\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ud14c\ud5e4\ub780\uc774 \uc57d\uc18d\ub41c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc218\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4 \ud569\uc758\uac00 \ubd95\uad34\ud560 \uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4 \uc81c\uae30\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uac78\ud504\ud611\ub825\ud68c\uc758(GCC) \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc774 \ub300\uccb4 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \ub3d9\uc548, \ud574\ud611\uc744 \uac1c\ubc29 \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uc720\uc778\uc774 \uc57d\ud654\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc6d0\uc720 \ud750\ub984\uc758 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uacfc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131<\/h3>\n<p>\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \uc774\ud574 \uad00\ub828 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc751\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc138\ubd80 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74 \uc6d0\uc720 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud070 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uc7ac\uac1c \uc2dc\uc810\uc740 2\uc8fc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\uc758 2\uac1c\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0\ub85c \uc5c7\uac08\ub9b0\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc77c\uc815 \uaca9\ucc28\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uc694\uc778\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubbf8 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc815\ubcf4\uccad(EIA)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uc11d\uc720 \uc561\uccb4(petroleum liquids) \uc18c\ube44\uc758 \uc57d 21%\uac00 \uc774 \ub2e8\uc77c \ucd08\ud06c\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8(\ubcd1\ubaa9\uc9c0\uc810)\ub97c \ud1b5\uacfc\ud55c\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 84\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc548\ud30e\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc2e4\uc81c \ucc28\uc9c8\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uc744 \ucd08\ub798\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \u2018\ud3c9\uc628\u2019\uc774 \ucde8\uc57d\ud558\uba70, \ud611\uc0c1 \ucc28\uc9c8 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uc81c\ub300\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uacfc\uac70 \uc774 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc758 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ucda9\uaca9\uc740 \uac00\ud30c\ub974\uace0 \uae09\uc791\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace4 \ud588\ub2e4. \uc608\ucee8\ub300 2019\ub144 9\uc6d4 \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uc544\ub77c\ube44\uc544 \uc11d\uc720\uc2dc\uc124\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub4dc\ub860 \uacf5\uaca9 \ub2f9\uc2dc \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 \ud558\ub8e8 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc57d 15% \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c \u201860\uc77c\u2019 \uc2dc\ud55c\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \ud604 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740, \uacf5\uae09\ubc1c \uc1fc\ud06c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uadf8\uc5d0 \ubabb\uc9c0\uc54a\uac70\ub098 \ub354 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810\uacfc \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ub97c \uac10\uc548\ud574 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 WTI\u00b7\ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud569\uc758\uac00 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9b4 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc0c1\ubc29 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc5d0 \ub178\ucd9c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uc800\ub834\ud55c \ubc29\ubc95\uc774\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc774\ub780\uc774 \uc5b8\uae09\ud55c 60\uc77c \ud611\uc0c1 \ucc3d\uc744 \uc9c0\ub09c, 2026\ub144 8\uc6d4 \ub9d0\uacfc 9\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30 \uacc4\uc57d\uc744 \uaca8\ub0e5\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud575\uc2ec \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 60\uc77c \uc774\ud6c4 \ud1b5\uacfc\uc5d0 \ud1b5\ud589\ub8cc\ub97c \ubd80\uacfc\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uc704\ud611\uc774\uba70, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc774\ub97c \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \ubc18\ub300\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc804\uccb4 \uc774\ud574\ub97c \ubb34\ub108\ub728\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uba85\ud655\ud55c \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ubc1c\ud654\uc810(\ud50c\ub798\uc2dc\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc635\uc158\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc774 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uac00 \uc7ac\ucda9\ub3cc\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ud604\uc7ac \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc6d0\uc720 \uc790\uccb4 \uc678\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud574\uc6b4 \uc5c5\uc885\uc5d0\uc11c \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub2e4\ub978 \uac01\ub3c4\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc720\uc870\uc120 \uc6b4\uc601\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc740 \ud574\ud611 \ubcf5\uadc0 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uac10\uc218\ud560\uc9c0 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc120\ud0dd\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud574 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc804\uc7c1\uc704\ud5d8 \ubcf4\ud5d8\ub8cc(war risk insurance)\uc640 \uc6b4\uc784\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc720\uc870\uc120(\ud0f1\ucee4) \uae30\uc5c5 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc5d0\uc11c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \uc774\ud574 \uc9c4\uc804\u201d\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804. \uc7ac\uac1c \uc2dc\uc810 2\uc8fc~50\uc77c \uc5c7\uac08\ub9ac\uace0 60\uc77c \ud6c4 \u2018\ud1b5\ud589\ub8cc\u2019 \ubcc0\uc218\ub85c \ud569\uc758 \ubd95\uad34 \uc6b0\ub824, \uc720\uac00\u00b7\uc6b4\uc784 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47679,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48830"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48830\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47679"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}