{"id":48770,"date":"2026-06-15T16:52:32","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T16:52:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%94%ed%99%94-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8-%eb%b2%a0%ed%8c%85-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80boj-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94-160%ec%84%a0-%ec%83%81%ed%9a%8c\/"},"modified":"2026-06-15T16:52:32","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T16:52:32","slug":"%ec%97%94%ed%99%94-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8-%eb%b2%a0%ed%8c%85-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80boj-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94-160%ec%84%a0-%ec%83%81%ed%9a%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%94%ed%99%94-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8-%eb%b2%a0%ed%8c%85-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80boj-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94-160%ec%84%a0-%ec%83%81%ed%9a%8c\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5d4\ud654 \uc57d\uc138 \ubca0\ud305 \ud655\ub300\u2026BOJ \uacb0\uc815 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4 160\uc120 \uc0c1\ud68c \uc720\uc9c0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc77c\ubcf8 \uc5d4\ud654\ub294 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, USD\/JPY\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BoJ) \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0\ub3c4 160.00\uc120 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. MUFG\ub294 \ucd5c\uc2e0 IMM \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub97c \uc778\uc6a9\ud574, \ubd84\uc7c1 \ubc1c\ubc1c \uc774\ud6c4 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0 \ud380\ub4dc\ub4e4\uc774 \uc5d4\ud654 \uc20f(\ub9e4\ub3c4) \uc775\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc800\ub97c \ub298\ub824\uc654\uc73c\uba70 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 BoJ\uc758 25bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \u2018\uc644\uc804 \ubc18\uc601(fully priced)\u2019\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc313\uc5ec \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5d4\ud654 \uc20f \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 6\uc6d4 9\uc77c\ub85c \ub05d\ub098\ub294 \uc8fc\uae4c\uc9c0 5\uc8fc \uc5f0\uc18d \uc99d\uac00\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 2\uc6d4 \ub9d0 \ub300\ube44 \uac70\uc758 4\ubc30 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ubd88\uc5b4\ub0ac\ub2e4. MUFG\ub294 \uc774\ub294 2024\ub144 7\uc6d4 \ucd08 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\ub300 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uc5d4\ud654 \uc20f \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc5d0\ub294 2024\ub144 7\uc6d4 BoJ\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc774\ud6c4, \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4 9\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed) \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub85c 2024\ub144 \uc5ec\ub984 \uc5d4\ud654 \uc870\ub2ec \uce90\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\uac00 \ub300\uac70 \uccad\uc0b0\ub410\ub358 \uc2dc\uae30\uc600\ub2e4. \uc5d4\ud654 \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc774 \ud1b5\ud654 \ubc29\uc5b4\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac1c\uc785\uc5d0 \ub098\uc124 \uc555\ub825\ub3c4 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc5d4\ud654 \uae09\ubc18\uc804 \uc704\ud5d8<\/h3>\n<p>\uc5d4\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub85d\uc801\uc778 \uc20f \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud558\uba74, \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ubc18\uc804\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uc5ec\uac74\uc73c\ub85c \ud310\ub2e8\ub41c\ub2e4. USD\/JPY\uac00 160.00\uc120\uc744 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\ub294 \ud604 \uc218\uc900\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \u2018\ub298\uc5b4\uc9c4(stretched)\u2019 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc774\uba70, \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 \uadfc\uc6d0 inflation\uc774 \ucd5c\uadfc 2026\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900 2.8%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \uc810\uc740 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 25bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ub2e8\ud589\ud560 \ucda9\ubd84\ud55c \uba85\ubd84\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uad6c\ub3c4\ub294 2024\ub144 \uc5ec\ub984 BoJ \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \uc5d4\ud654 \uc20f \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc758 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uccad\uc0b0\uc744 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud588\ub358 \uc0c1\ud669\uacfc \uc704\ud5d8\ud560 \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc5d0\ub9cc \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud55c\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud588\uace0, \uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00\ub3c4 2.5%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ub418\ub294 \ub4f1 \ucd5c\uadfc \ubbf8\uad6d \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ubca0\ud305\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6e0\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740 \uae34\ucd95, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc644\ud654 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc815\ucc45 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9bc(policy divergence)\uc740 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc5d4\ud654 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ucd09\ubc1c\ud558\ub294 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \ub3d9\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud574 \uc654\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uac1c\uc785 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ubc0f \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n<p>BoJ \ud68c\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0, \uc7ac\ubb34\uc131(\uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80)\uc758 \uc9c1\uc811 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc785 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uacbd\uacc4\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uad6d\uc740 \ud22c\uae30\uc801 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc744 \uc8fc\uc2dc\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \ud574\uc654\uc73c\uba70, 162.00\uc120\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc2dc\ub3c4\ub294 \uc5d4\ud654 \ubc29\uc5b4\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \uc870\uce58\ub97c \uc27d\uac8c \ucd09\ubc1c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc WTI \uc720\uac00\uac00 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 75\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubd80\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc544\uc9c1 \uc5d4\ud654\uc5d0 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc57d\uc138\uc5d0 \ub354\uc6b1 \ubbfc\uac10\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ud604 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc5d4\ud654 \uc20f \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ubcf4\uc720\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc704\ud5d8\ud558\ub2e4. \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub0b4 \uc5d4\ud654\uac00 \uac11\uc791\uc2a4\ub7fd\uac8c \uac15\uc138\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc740 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \ub610\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \uaca8\ub0e5\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc73c\ub85c, \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money) \uc5d4\ud654 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub610\ub294 USD\/JPY \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\uc5d4\ud654 \uc1fc\ud2b8 \ud3ed\ud0c4\u201d \ud130\uc9c8\uae4c\u2026USD\/JPY 160\ub300\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc20f\uc774 5\uc8fc \uc5f0\uc18d \uae09\uc99d, BoJ 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uc644\ud654 \ubca0\ud305\uc5d0 \uae09\ubc18\uc804\u00b7\uac1c\uc785 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud655\ub300.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47799,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201c\uc5d4\ud654 \uc1fc\ud2b8 \ud3ed\ud0c4\u201d \ud130\uc9c8\uae4c\u2026USD\/JPY 160\ub300\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc20f\uc774 5\uc8fc \uc5f0\uc18d \uae09\uc99d, BoJ 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uc644\ud654 \ubca0\ud305\uc5d0 \uae09\ubc18\uc804\u00b7\uac1c\uc785 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud655\ub300.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n\t<link 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