{"id":48368,"date":"2026-03-04T15:44:02","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T15:44:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%bd%94%eb%a9%94%eb%a5%b4%ec%b8%a0%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ed%83%80%ed%83%80-%ea%b3%a0%ec%84%b8%eb%8a%94-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9d%b8\/"},"modified":"2026-03-04T15:44:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T15:44:02","slug":"%ec%bd%94%eb%a9%94%eb%a5%b4%ec%b8%a0%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ed%83%80%ed%83%80-%ea%b3%a0%ec%84%b8%eb%8a%94-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9d%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%bd%94%eb%a9%94%eb%a5%b4%ec%b8%a0%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ed%83%80%ed%83%80-%ea%b3%a0%ec%84%b8%eb%8a%94-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9d%b8\/","title":{"rendered":"\ucf54\uba54\ub974\uce20\ubc29\ud06c\uc758 \ud0c0\ud0c0 \uace0\uc138\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc644\ud654\ub85c \uc778\ud55c NBP\uc758 25bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc988\uc6cc\ud2f0\ud654\ub97c \uc57d\uc138\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc \uad6d\ub9bd\uc740\ud589(NBP)\uc740 \uc624\ub298 \ub9e4\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub300\ud45c \uae08\ub9ac) \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc774\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1(\uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc804\ub9dd)\uc740 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, \uae08\ub9ac 0.01%p \ub2e8\uc704) \uc778\ud558\uc774\uba70, \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158, \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \uc18d\ub3c4)\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub290\ub9ac\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uace0 \uc0c8 NBP \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uacb0\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4) \ub0b4\ubd80\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc5b4\ub514\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uc57c \ud558\ub294\uc9c0 \uc758\uacac\uc774 \uac08\ub9b0\ub2e4. \uac70\ub860\ub418\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub05d\ub098\ub294 \uc9c0\uc810) 3.50%, 3.25%, \ub610\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uc778\ud558 \uc774\ud6c4 25bp \ud55c \ubc88\ub9cc \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\ud558\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Expected Terminal Rate Path<\/h3>\n\uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac 3.25% \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4\uc838 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0(\ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc \ud1b5\ud654)\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c \ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc \ucd1d\uc120 \uc774\ud6c4(\uac00\ub2a5 \uc2dc\uc810: 2027\ub144 11\uc6d4)\uae4c\uc9c0 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ub098\ub77c\ub4e4\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654(\ub3d9\uc885 \ud1b5\ud654, \ube44\uad50 \ub300\uc0c1 \ud1b5\ud654)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\uc138 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc624\ub298 \ubc1c\ud45c\uac00 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74, \uad00\uc2ec\uc740 \ub0b4\uc77c \uc624\ud6c4 \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uacb0\uc815 \ubc30\uacbd\uacfc \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud558\ub294 \ud589\uc0ac)\uc73c\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac08 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud589\uc0ac\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ubc1c\ud45c \uc790\uccb4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc758\ub3c4(\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ud560\uc9c0)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n2025\ub144\uc744 \ub3cc\uc544\ubcf4\uba74, \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c(dovish, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \ub0ae\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5)\uc778 \ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc \uad6d\ub9bd\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc900 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \ud328\ud134\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uba74\uc11c \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0 \uc608\uce21 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc5ed\ud48d(\uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubd88\ub9ac\ud558\uac8c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uc694\uc778)\uc774 \uc0dd\uacbc\ub2e4. \uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc758 \uc815\ucc45)\uac00 \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0\uc758 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4\ub294 \uacfc\uac70 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ucc38\uace0\uc810\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\uc624\ub298(2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 4\uc77c) \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 3.1%\ub85c, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ubaa9\ud45c\uce58 2.5%(\ubb3c\uac00 \ubaa9\ud45c, \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc774 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub9de\ucd94\ub824\ub294 \uae30\uc900)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac(\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac)\uac00 4.50%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c NBP\ub294 \ub354 \uac15\ud55c \ub9e4\ud30c(hawkish, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \ub354 \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5)\ub85c \ub098\uc11c\uae30\ub97c \uc8fc\uc800\ud558\ub294 \ub4ef\ud558\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc791\ub144\uc5d0 \ubd24\ub358 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c \uc131\ud5a5\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9ac\uac8c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0\uac00 \uc720\ub85c(EUR)\ub098 \ub2ec\ub7ec(USD) \ub300\ube44 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Trading And Hedging Ideas<\/h3>\n\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0 \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uac83\uc774\ub77c \ubcf4\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub77c\uba74, EUR\/PLN \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c EUR\/PLN\uc744 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\uc218\ub294 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 NBP \ubc1c\uc5b8(\ucf54\uba58\ud2b8) \uc774\ud6c4 \uc608\uc0c1\ub300\ub85c \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c8 \uacbd\uc6b0 EUR\/PLN \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc774\uc775 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc635\uc158 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub0b4\ub294 \ube44\uc6a9)\ub9cc\ud07c\uc73c\ub85c \uc190\uc2e4\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uc704\ud5d8)\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774 EUR\/PLN \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc774\ub2e4.\n\nNBP \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uc0c1 \ubc16 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc774 \ub098\uc62c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4) \uc790\uccb4\ub3c4 \uac70\ub798 \ub300\uc0c1\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. USD\/PLN \ub871 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(long straddle, \uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uaca9\uacfc \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uc740 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 \uc5b4\ub290 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774\ub4e0 \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n3\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc120\ubb3c\ud658(\ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc) \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0\ub97c \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ub3c4 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ubc29\ubc95\uc774\ub2e4. \uc120\ubb3c\ud658\uc740 \ubbf8\ub798 \ub0a0\uc9dc\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ud560 \ud658\uc728\uc744 \uc624\ub298 \ud655\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798\ub2e4. \ud604\ubb3c\ud658\uc728(\uc989\uc2dc \uad50\ud658\ub418\ub294 \ud658\uc728)\uc774 \uc120\ubb3c\ud658\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \uc218\uc900(\ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, \ud604\ubb3c\ud658\uc728\uacfc \uc120\ubb3c\ud658\uc728\uc758 \ucc28\uc774)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uba74 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub09c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub300\uc751\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2a6\uc5c8\ub2e4(\uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ub530\ub77c\uac00\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c\ub2e4)\uace0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubcfc \ub54c, \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc57d\uc138 \uc2dc\uac01\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \ub370 \ud754\ud788 \uc4f0\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc624\ub298 NBP \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815: 25bp \uc778\ud558 \uc608\uc0c1, \ub0ae\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 3.25% \uc885\ub2e8\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd \uac15\ud654. \ub0b4\uc77c \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec. \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\ub294 \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0 \uc57d\uc138\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc838 \uc635\uc158\u00b7\uc120\ubb3c \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uae30\ud68c. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48368\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}