{"id":47884,"date":"2026-06-01T11:17:03","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T11:17:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98%c2%b7%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ea%b3%a0%ea%b3%b5%ed%96%89%ec%a7%84%ec%97%90-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%b2%ab-%ea%b8%88\/"},"modified":"2026-06-01T11:17:03","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T11:17:03","slug":"%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98%c2%b7%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ea%b3%a0%ea%b3%b5%ed%96%89%ec%a7%84%ec%97%90-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%b2%ab-%ea%b8%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98%c2%b7%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ea%b3%a0%ea%b3%b5%ed%96%89%ec%a7%84%ec%97%90-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%b2%ab-%ea%b8%88\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\u00b7\uc720\uac00 \uace0\uacf5\ud589\uc9c4\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900 \uccab \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 2026\ub144 10\uc6d4\ub85c \uc5f0\uae30"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\uc758 \ud544\ub9bd \ub9c8\ub808\uc774(Philip Marey) \ubbf8\uad6d \uc218\uc11d \uc804\ub7b5\uac00\ub294 \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC)\uac00 \uc6cc\uc2dc(Warsh)\uc758 \uccab \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uc644\ud654 \uc131\ud5a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ud55c\ubc1c \ubb3c\ub7ec\uc120 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4\uba70, \ubbf8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed) \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc218\uc815\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8\ub294 \ub610\ud55c \uc911\ub3d9 \uc9c0\uc5ed \uc815\uc138\uac00 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\uc2dc\ud0ac \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub3fc, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \ub354 \ub192\uace0 \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2dc\uac01\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \ubc30\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\ub294 Fed\uc758 \uccab \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 2026\ub144 10\uc6d4\ub85c, \ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc778\ud558\ub294 2027\ub144 1\uc6d4\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uae30\uc874 \uc804\ub9dd(\uccab \uc778\ud558 2026\ub144 9\uc6d4, \ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc778\ud558 2026\ub144 12\uc6d4)\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud574 \uc778\ud558 \uac1c\uc2dc\uac00 \ub2a6\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654\uc758 \uc2dc\uac04\ud45c\uac00 \ub354 \uae38\uc5b4\uc84c\uc74c\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uace0\ucc29\ud654\uc5d0 \u2018Fed \uc778\ud558 \uc9c0\uc5f0\u2019 \uad00\uce21<\/h3>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uc870\ub9cc\uac04 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5\uc744 \uc57d\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\ub2e4. \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc131\uc774 \ud655\uc778\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uccab \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uad00\uc810\uc744 \uc870\uc815\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 9\uc6d4 \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud588\ub358 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc7ac\uace0\ud574\uc57c \ud568\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ucd5c\uadfc \uc9c0\ud45c\ub3c4 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uc2e0 CPI\uc5d0\uc11c \uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00(Core)\uac00 3.8%\ub85c \uacac\uc870\ud558\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uba70 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ud06c\uac8c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 90\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uba74\uc11c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ube44\uc6a9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc790\uadf9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc694\uc778\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub354 \uc774\ub978 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc815\ub2f9\ud654\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc7ac\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc2f1, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc804\ub7b5 \ubcc0\ud654<\/h3>\n<p>\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc7ac\uc870\uc815 \uc911\uc774\ub2e4. Fed Funds \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 9\uc6d4 FOMC \ud68c\uc758\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc774\ub904\uc9c8 \ud655\ub960\uc744 15%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \ubd88\uacfc \uba87 \uc8fc \uc804 45% \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uae09\ub77d\ud55c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\ub294 \uc5ec\ub984\ucca0 \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub0a8\uc740 \ud655\uc2e0\uc744 \u2018\ub418\ubc1b\uc544\uce58\ub294(fade)\u2019 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900 \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ud655\ub300\ub294 \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\ud45c\uc778 MOVE \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 115\ub85c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc62c\ub77c\uc11c\uba70, \uc5f0\ucd08 \uc800\uc810 \ub300\ube44 \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \uc99d\uac00\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle) \ub4f1 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9(\uc2a4\uc719)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\ub294 \ucd5c\uc18c 10\uc6d4\uc744 \uccab \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5 \uc2dc\uc810\uc73c\ub85c, \uc774\ud6c4 2027\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub3c4\ub85d \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc870\uc815\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uad6c\uccb4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc784\ubc15\ud55c \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \ub2e8\uae30\ubb3c \uc120\ubb3c \uacc4\uc57d\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\uace0, \uce98\ub9b0\ub354 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(calendar spreads) \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ubaa8\uc0c9\ud558\ub294 \uc811\uadfc\uc774\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \u2018\ub354 \uc624\ub798, \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac(higher for longer)\u2019\uac00 \uc9c0\ubc30\uc801 \ud14c\ub9c8\uac00 \ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\uccab \uc778\ud558 2026\ub144 10\uc6d4\ub85c \ud6c4\ud1f4\u201d \ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c, \uc911\ub3d9\ubc1c \uc720\uac00\u00b7\uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00 3.8%\uc5d0 Fed \uc644\ud654 \uae30\uc870 \ud6c4\ud1f4 \uc9c4\ub2e8. 9\uc6d4 \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960 15%\ub85c \uae09\ub77d, MOVE 115\u2026 higher for longer \uac15\ud654.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47709,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47884","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47884","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47884"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47884\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47709"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47884"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47884"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47884"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}