{"id":47620,"date":"2026-05-28T14:55:43","date_gmt":"2026-05-28T14:55:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ea%b7%bc%ec%9b%90-pce-3-6%eb%a1%9c-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1-%eb%82%ae%ec%95%84%ec%a7%80\/"},"modified":"2026-05-28T14:55:43","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T14:55:43","slug":"%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ea%b7%bc%ec%9b%90-pce-3-6%eb%a1%9c-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1-%eb%82%ae%ec%95%84%ec%a7%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ea%b7%bc%ec%9b%90-pce-3-6%eb%a1%9c-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1-%eb%82%ae%ec%95%84%ec%a7%80\/","title":{"rendered":"\ubbf8\uad6d \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE 3.6%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\u2026\uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uace0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uc6b0\ub824 \ucee4\uc838"},"content":{"rendered":"

\ubbf8\uad6d \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(PCE) \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 4\uc6d4 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.8% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\uc640 \uac19\uc558\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub294 PCE \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\ub85c \uce21\uc815\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \ud574\ub2f9 \uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc608\uc0c1\ub300\ub85c \ub098\uc654\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

FXStreet\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \ubcf4\ub3c4\uac00 \uc0ac\ub0b4 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubb38 \uae30\uc790\uc640 \uc678\ud658(FX) \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ud300\uc774 \uc791\uc131\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub4e4\uc774 \ub9e4\uccb4\uc5d0 \uac8c\uc7ac\ub418\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ucf58\ud150\uce20\ub97c \uc81c\uc791\u00b7\uad00\ub9ac\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc21c\uc218\ud55c \uc800\ub110\ub9ac\uc998 \uad00\uc810\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\ub3c4\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed) \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ucd5c\uadfc \ubcc0\ud654<\/h3>\n

4\uc6d4 PCE\uac00 3.8%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ubd80\ud569\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc9c0\ub09c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc774\ub2e4. \uc0c8\ub85c \ub098\uc628 5\uc6d4 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 **\uadfc\uc6d0(core) PCE**\uac00 3.6%\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \ub0b4\ub824\uac14\ub2e4.
\n– **\uadfc\uc6d0 PCE**: \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 **\uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\uacfc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0**\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud574 \ubb3c\uac00\uc758 \u2018\uae30\uc870 \ud750\ub984\u2019\uc744 \ubcf4\ub824\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c. <\/p>\n

\uc774\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc774 **\ucc9c\ucc9c\ud788, \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc27d\uac8c \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294**(\uc644\ub9cc\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc644\uace0\ud55c) \ub454\ud654 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud574\uc900\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc774 \uc815\ub3c4\uc758 \uac1c\uc120\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \ubc14\uafb8\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd80\uc871\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc14\uafc0 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \ub0b4\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \uba87 \ub2ec \ub354 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc2dd\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc5f0\uc900 \uc778\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc **\ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc758\uc874(data-dependency)**\uc744 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.
\n– **\ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc758\uc874**: \ud2b9\uc815 \uc77c\uc815\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815\ud558\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4, **\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uace0\uc6a9 \ub4f1 \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \ubcf4\uba70** \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b. <\/p>\n

\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \u2018\uc5ec\ub984 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\u2019 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub204\ub974\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc774\ub2e4. **CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch) \ud234**\ub3c4 \uc774\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud55c\ub2e4.
\n– **CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58 \ud234**: \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubcf4\ub294 **\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815 \ud655\ub960**\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud574 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c. <\/p>\n

\ud604\uc7ac 9\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ud55c \ub2ec \uc804 65%\ub97c \ub118\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c 45%\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac14\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc601\ud5a5\uacfc \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n

**\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives)** \ud22c\uc790\uc790 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 **\ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility)**\uc774 \uc624\ub97c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4.
\n– **\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488**: \uc8fc\uc2dd\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\ud658\uc728 \uac19\uc740 \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc815\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488(\uc608: \uc635\uc158, \uc120\ubb3c).
\n– **\ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131**: \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \u2018\ubc18\uc601\ub41c\u2019 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \ud3ed. \ubcf4\ud1b5 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba74 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c\ub2e4. <\/p>\n

\uc8fc\uc694 \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74, \uacf5\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc218\ub85c \ubd88\ub9ac\ub294 **VIX**\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac 14 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub0ae\uc740 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
\n– **VIX**: S&P500 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \u2018\uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u2019 \uc9c0\uc218. \uc218\uce58\uac00 \ub0ae\uc73c\uba74 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \uc801\uac8c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b. <\/p>\n

\ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\ucc98\ub7fc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \ud604\uc7ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544 \ubcf4\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c \ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 **\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle)** \ub9e4\uc218 \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.
\n– **\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4**: \uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uaca9\uc758 **\ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218**\ud574, \ubc29\ud5a5\uc740 \ub9de\ud788\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud574\ub3c4 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc900\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 **\uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120(yield curve)**\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 **\uc5ed\uc804(inverted)**\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4.
\n– **\uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120**: \ub9cc\uae30\ubcc4 \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc904\ub85c \uc774\uc740 \uac83.
\n– **\uc5ed\uc804**: \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc7a5\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub85c, \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ubc18\uc601\ub420 \ub54c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uae30 \uc27d\ub2e4. <\/p>\n

\ucd5c\uadfc \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2e0\uaddc \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub9ce\uc740 21\ub9cc \uac1c \ub298\uc5b4 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uacac\uc870\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub098\uc654\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud310\ub2e8\uc744 \ub354 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c **SOFR \uc120\ubb3c(SOFR futures)**\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \ucd5c\uc18c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \ud68c\uc758\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.
\n– **SOFR**: \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uae30\uc900\uc774 \ub418\ub294 \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30 \ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uae08\ub9ac(\uad6d\ucc44 \ub2f4\ubcf4 \ud658\ub9e4\uc870\uac74\ubd80 \uac70\ub798 \uae08\ub9ac).
\n– **SOFR \uc120\ubb3c**: \ud5a5\ud6c4 SOFR \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c\ub85c, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 **\uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \uae30\ub300**\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc790\uc8fc \uc4f0\uc778\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9b4\uae4c\u201d 4\uc6d4 PCE 3.8%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1 \ubd80\ud569, 5\uc6d4 \uadfc\uc6d0PCE 3.6%\ub85c \uc644\ub9cc \ub454\ud654. \uc5f0\uc900 \u2018\ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc758\uc874\u2019\uc5d0 9\uc6d4 \uc778\ud558\ud655\ub960 45%\ub85c \ud558\ub77d, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\u00b7\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4\u00b7SOFR \uc804\ub7b5 \ubd80\uc0c1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47620\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}