\uc2dc\uce74\uace0 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc740\ud589(\uc5f0\uc740) \ucd1d\uc7ac \uc624\uc2a4\ud134 \uad74\uc2a4\ube44\ub294 26\uc77c(\ud604\uc9c0\uc2dc\uac04) \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9(supply shock\u00b7\uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1, \ubb3c\ub958 \ucc28\uc9c8 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \uac11\uc791\uc2a4\ub7fd\uac8c \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uc99d\uac00 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0\uc11c \ube44\ub86f\ub418\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9) \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \ub354 \ud0a4\uc6b8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uac1c\uc120 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b4 \ub54c \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uacbd\uae30\uc640 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc815\ucc45 \uc120\ud0dd(\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\uc624\ud504\u00b7\ud55c\ucabd\uc744 \uc7a1\uc73c\uba74 \ub2e4\ub978 \ucabd\uc774 \uc545\ud654\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad6c\uc870)\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uad74\uc2a4\ube44 \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 \ub610 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \ud5a5\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \ub2e4\ub978 \ub098\ub77c\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac(\uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac)\uac00 \ub354 \uc62c\ub77c\uac08 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc9c0\uc218(US Dollar Index\u00b7\uc8fc\uc694 6\uac1c \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218)\uac00 \uc774\ub0a0 0.12% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 \uae30\uc0ac \uc791\uc131 \uc2dc\uc810 99.35 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud574 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI\u00b7\ucef4\ud4e8\ud130\uac00 \uc0ac\ub78c\ucc98\ub7fc \ud559\uc2b5\u00b7\ud310\ub2e8\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc220) \ub4f1 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \uc88b\uc544\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc790\uadf9\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uc62c\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \u2018\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc7a1\uae30\u2019\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uc790\uc8fc \uc0ac\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 3.1%\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\uace0, 1\ubd84\uae30 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131\uc774 3.5% \uae09\uc99d\ud55c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc62c\ud574 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc28\ub840 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uae30\ub300\ud558\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ub099\uad00\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \uacbd\uae30 \uacfc\uc5f4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uacb9\uce58\uba74\uc11c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294) \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uadfc\uac70\uac00 \uac15\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc774\ub294 \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac(neutral rate\u00b7\uacbd\uae30\ub97c \uacfc\uc5f4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4, \uc704\ucd95\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc54a\ub294 \u2018\uc801\uc815\u2019 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900)\uac00 \uae30\uc874\uc5d0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud588\ub358 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives\u00b7\uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc0c1\ud488) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc810\uac80\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801(dovish\u00b7\uacbd\uae30 \ubd80\uc591\uc744 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \ub0ae\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294) \uae30\ub300\uc640 \ubc18\ub300\ub85c, 2026\ub144 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \u2018\ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uc624\ub798\u2019 \uc720\uc9c0\ub420 \ub54c \uc218\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158(options on SOFR futures\u00b7\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \uc775\uc77c\uae08\ub9ac(SOFR)\ub97c \uae30\ucd08\ub85c \ud55c \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub4f1\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c 3\ubd84\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc120\ubb3c(Treasury futures\u00b7\ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\ub97c \uae30\ucd08\ub85c \ud55c \uc120\ubb3c)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money\u00b7\ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub2f9\uc7a5 \ud589\uc0ac\ud574\ub3c4 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call option\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\ub3c4 \uace0\ub824 \uc911\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub354 \uac15\uacbd\ud55c \uc815\ucc45\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc9c0\uc218(DXY\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc9c0\uc218\uc758 \uc57d\uce6d)\ub294 \uc774\ub2ec \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ub2e4\uc2dc 105.00\uc744 \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\uace0, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc2dc\ud5d8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uad00\uc810\uc744 \uc9c1\uc811 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc73c\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc120\ubb3c(USD futures\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ubbf8\ub798 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d) \ub9e4\uc218 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \ud658\uacbd\uc740 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4 \uc694\uc778\uc774\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uae30\ub300\uc758 \uc218\ud61c\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \ubcf8 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uc911\uc2ec\uc758 \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100(Nasdaq 100\u00b7\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 \uc0c1\uc7a5 \ube44\uae08\uc735 \ub300\ud615\uc8fc 100\uac1c\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub41c \uc9c0\uc218)\uc774 \ucde8\uc57d\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \uae34\ucd95(tightening\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ub610\ub294 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ucd95\uc18c\ub85c \uae08\uc735\uc5ec\uac74\uc744 \uc870\uc774\ub294 \uac83)\ud560 \ub54c \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \ub9ce\uc558\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uc218 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ubcf4\ud638\uc6a9 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(protective put\u00b7\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d \uc2dc \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc0ac\ub450\ub294 \u2018\ub9e4\ub3c4\ud560 \uad8c\ub9ac\u2019) \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \ud5e4\uc9c0(hedge\u00b7\uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uac70\ub798)\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1(\uc624\uc77c \uc1fc\ud06c\u00b7\uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ucda9\uaca9) \uc704\ud5d8\uc740 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ub354 \uc545\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a8\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uac08\ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc6d0\uc720(WTI\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uae30\uc900 \uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9)\uac00 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 90\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uba70 \ubb3c\uac00\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ub354\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 \ubb34\uc2dc\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae34\ucd95\uc801(restrictive\u00b7\uacbd\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294) \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uc778\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u201cAI \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc790\uadf9?\u201d \uad74\uc2a4\ube44, \uc720\uac00 \ub4f1 \uacf5\uae09\ucda9\uaca9 \uacb9\uce58\uba74 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\u00b7\uc815\ucc45 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\uc624\ud504 \uc2ec\ud654 \uacbd\uace0. \uae08\ub9ac \u2018\ub192\uac8c \uc624\ub798\u2019\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138, \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47582","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47582"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47582\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47582"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47582"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47582"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}