\ub2e4\uc6b0\uc874\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc5c5\ud3c9\uade0\uc9c0\uc218(DJIA)\ub294 S&P500\uacfc \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5\uc885\ud569\uc9c0\uc218\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370\uc11c\ub3c4 5\ub9cc700\uc120\uc5d0\uc11c \uc7a5\uc911 \uc18c\ud3ed(\uc57d +) \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc804\ub0a0(\ud654\uc694\uc77c)\uc5d0\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\uac00 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc778 \ubc18\uba74, \ube14\ub8e8\uce69(\ub300\ud615 \uc6b0\ub7c9\uc8fc)\uc740 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud588\ub2e4. \ud504\ub85d\ud130\uc564\ub4dc\uac2c\ube14(P&G)\uc740 3% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc62c\ub790\uace0 \ud648\ub514\ud3ec\ub294 2% \ub118\uac8c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574, \uc8fc\uac00 \uc218\uc900\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc885\ubaa9\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ub354 \ud070 \u2018\uc8fc\uac00\uac00\uc911\u2019 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc758 \ub2e4\uc6b0\ub97c \ub5a0\ubc1b\ucce4\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \uc0ac\uc774\ubc84 \ubcf4\uc548\uc5c5\uccb4 \uc9c0\uc2a4\ucf00\uc77c\ub7ec\ub294 \uc2e4\uc801 \uc804\ub9dd(\uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4)\uc774 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \ubabb \ubbf8\uce58\uba70 30% \ub118\uac8c \uae09\ub77d\ud588\uace0, \uc774 \uc5ec\ud30c\ub85c \ud314\ub85c\uc54c\ud1a0\ub124\ud2b8\uc6cd\uc2a4\uc640 \ud06c\ub77c\uc6b0\ub4dc\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub77c\uc774\ud06c\ub3c4 \ub3d9\ubc18 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. \ub9c8\uc774\ud06c\ub860\uc740 \ud654\uc694\uc77c 19% \uae09\ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uac00\ucd1d\uc561 1\uc870\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uc130\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub2e8\uae30 \uacfc\uc5f4\uc774 \uc2dd\uc73c\uba74\uc11c \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6c0\uc744 \uacaa\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc720\uac00\ub3c4 \ub0b4\ub838\ub2e4. \uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc6d0\uc720(WTI)\ub294 3% \uc774\uc0c1 \ud558\ub77d\ud574 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 90\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac14\uace0, \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub294 99\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780 \uad6d\uc601 \ub9e4\uccb4\uac00 \u201c\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611(\uc911\ub3d9 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc1a1 \ud575\uc2ec \ud1b5\ub85c) \uc120\ubc15 \ud1b5\ud589\uc774 \ud55c \ub2ec \ub0b4 \uc804\uc7c1 \uc804 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud68c\ubcf5\ub420 \uac83\u201d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ud55c \ub4a4 \uc720\uac00\uac00 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubc31\uc545\uad00\uc740 \uc774\ub97c \u201c\uc644\uc804\ud55c \uc870\uc791\u201d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc18\ubc15\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc6b0\ub294 \uc57d 0.25% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \uace0\uc810\uc778 5\ub9cc1000\uc120\uc5d0\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc218\ubc31 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ubabb \ubbf8\ucce4\uace0, \uc57c\uac04 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c 5\ub9cc800\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ubc00\uc5b4 \uc62c\ub9ac\ub824\ub358 \ud750\ub984\ub3c4 \ub454\ud654\ub410\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c 12:30 GMT \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(Core PCE) \ubb3c\uac00, 1\ubd84\uae30 GDP(\uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0), \uc2e0\uaddc \uc2e4\uc5c5\uc218\ub2f9 \uccad\uad6c, \ub0b4\uad6c\uc7ac \uc8fc\ubb38\uc73c\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac00\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec PCE\ub294 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0.3%, \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.3%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba70(\uc774\uc804 3.2%), CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 3.8% \ubd80\uadfc, \uc5f0\uc900(Fed) \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc740 3.50~3.75%\ub85c \uc5b8\uae09\ub410\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch\u00b7\uc120\ubb3c\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\/\uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ucd94\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub3c4\uad6c)\ub294 6\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc57d 70%, \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 30% \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud588\ub2e4. \uae30\uc220\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 5\ub9cc800\uc120\uc774 \uc800\ud56d\uc120(\uc0c1\ub2e8\uc744 \ub9c9\ub294 \uac00\uaca9\ub300), 5\ub9cc500\uc120\uacfc 5\ub9cc000\uc120\uc774 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120(\ud558\ub2e8\uc744 \ubc1b\uce58\ub294 \uac00\uaca9\ub300)\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
\ub2e4\uc6b0\uc758 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801 \uac15\uc138\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc790\uc2e0\uac10\uc774\ub77c\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uacbd\uace0 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc790\uae08\uc774 \uc131\uc7a5\uc8fc(\ud2b9\ud788 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc)\uc5d0\uc11c \ube60\uc838\ub098\uc640 \uacbd\uae30 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \uc131\uaca9\uc774 \uac15\ud55c \uc18c\ube44\uc7ac(\ud544\uc218\uc18c\ube44\uc7ac)\uc640 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc7ac \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac00\ub294 \u2018\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uc624\ud504(risk-off\u00b7\uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uace0 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0\/\ubc29\uc5b4\uc8fc\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9)\u2019 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c XLP(\ud544\uc218\uc18c\ube44\uc7ac ETF)\ucc98\ub7fc \ubc29\uc5b4\uc8fc ETF\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0, \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \ube44\uc911\uc774 \ud070 QQQ\uc758 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc8fc\uc694 \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubd88\uc548\uc815\ud574 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. VIX(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc9c0\uc218\u00b7S&P500 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4 \u2018\uacf5\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc218\u2019\ub85c \ubd88\ub9bc)\ub294 \uc774\ub2ec \ucd08 14 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc800\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c 18\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4\uc130\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ud558\ub77d \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \u2018\ubcf4\ud638\uc6a9 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(\ud5e4\uc9c0)\u2019\uc744 \ub298\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub2e4. \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \ubc29\uc5b4\ub97c \uc704\ud574 S&P500\uc758 \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money\u00b7\ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \uba40\ub9ac \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uaca9) \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \ud3b8\uc785\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
\ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 90\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac04 \uc720\uac00\ub294 \uadfc\uac70\uac00 \uc57d\ud55c \uc18c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud574 \uc5b8\uc81c\ub4e0 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uad00\ub828 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \ub274\uc2a4\ub294 \uba70\uce60 \uc0ac\uc774 \uc720\uac00\ub97c 5~10% \ud754\ub4e4\uace4 \ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \uc720\uac00\uac00 \uc704\uc544\ub798 \uc5b4\ub290 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc5ec\ub3c4 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\/\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ucf5c\uacfc \ud48b\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305)\uc744 USO(\ubbf8\uad6d \uc6d0\uc720 ETF)\uc5d0\uc11c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub0b4\uc77c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 \ud575\uc2ec PCE \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uad00\uac74\uc774\ub2e4. \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 6\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub0ae\uac8c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58(\uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.3%)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uce58\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud558\ub77d \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ubc1b\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \u2018\ub048\uc801\ud55c(sticky\u00b7\uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294)\u2019 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud655\uc778\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0\ub97c \ub300\ube44\ud574 SPY(S&P500 ETF)\uc758 \ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\ub85c \ud568\uaed8 \uac70\ub798\ud574 \uc190\uc775 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5) \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uc900\ube44\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\ub2e4\uc6b0\ub9cc 5\ub9cc700\uc120 \ubc29\uc5b4\u2026P&G\u00b7\ud648\ub514\ud3ec\uac00 \uc9c0\ud0f1, \uc9c0\uc2a4\ucf00\uc77c\ub7ec \ud3ed\ub77d\uc5d0 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \ud754\ub4e4. \uc720\uac00 90\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud558\ud68c. Core PCE\u00b7GDP \uc55e\ub450\uace0 VIX\u2191, \ubc29\uc5b4\uc8fc\ub85c \u2018\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc624\ud504\u2019 \uac00\uc18d. \uc635\uc158 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \ud655\ub300.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47552","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47552"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47552\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}