{"id":47474,"date":"2026-05-27T04:26:36","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T04:26:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ea%b1%b0%ec%8b%9c%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-%ec%97%ad%ed%92%8d%ea%b3%bc-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80%c2%b7%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%ec%b0%a8-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80%ec%97%90-%eb%a3%a8%ed%94%bc%ec%95%84%ed%99%94-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8\/"},"modified":"2026-05-27T04:26:36","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T04:26:36","slug":"%ea%b1%b0%ec%8b%9c%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-%ec%97%ad%ed%92%8d%ea%b3%bc-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80%c2%b7%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%ec%b0%a8-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80%ec%97%90-%eb%a3%a8%ed%94%bc%ec%95%84%ed%99%94-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ea%b1%b0%ec%8b%9c%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-%ec%97%ad%ed%92%8d%ea%b3%bc-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80%c2%b7%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%ec%b0%a8-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80%ec%97%90-%eb%a3%a8%ed%94%bc%ec%95%84%ed%99%94-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8\/","title":{"rendered":"\uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \uc5ed\ud48d\uacfc \uc720\uac00\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\ucc28 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544\ud654 \uc57d\uc138 \uc9c0\uc18d\u2026\uc778\ub3c4\ub124\uc2dc\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BI) \uae34\ucd95 \uac15\ud654"},"content":{"rendered":"

\uac70\uc2dc \ud658\uacbd\uc758 \uc5ed\ud48d\uc774 \uc778\ub3c4\ub124\uc2dc\uc544 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544(IDR)\uc5d0 \uacc4\uc18d \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d 2\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 4%\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uace0, \uc720\uac00\ub3c4 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc778\ub3c4\ub124\uc2dc\uc544 \uac04 **\uae08\ub9ac \ucc28(interest-rate differentials: \ub450 \ub098\ub77c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uc2dc\uc7a5\uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28)**\uac00 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uba70 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 IDR\uc744 \uc555\ubc15\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 **\uacbd\uc0c1\uc218\uc9c0(current account: \ubb34\uc5ed\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\u00b7\uc18c\ub4dd\uc744 \ud569\uce5c \ub300\uc678\uac70\ub798 \uc218\uc9c0)**\uac00 \uc57d\ud654\ub418\uba70 \ub300\uc678 \uc5ec\uac74\ub3c4 \ub354 \ub098\ube60\uc84c\ub2e4. 1\ubd84\uae30 \uacbd\uc0c1\uc218\uc9c0\ub294 GDP \ub300\ube44 -1.1%\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ubcf4\uc870\uae08\uacfc \uc5f0\uacc4\ub41c \uc7ac\uc815 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c, \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654 \uc870\uc9d0\ub3c4 \ucde8\uc57d\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b4\ub2e4. 1\ubd84\uae30 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 \uc815\ubd80 \uc18c\ube44 \uc99d\uac00\uac00 \uacac\uc778\ud574 \uc131\uc7a5 \uae30\uc5ec\ub3c4\uac00 +1.3%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub85c \ud655\ub300\ub410\uace0, \uc774\ub294 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30(+0.4%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud06c\uac8c \ub192\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9, \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544 \uc57d\uc138, **\uc0b0\ucd9c \uac2d(output gap: \uc2e4\uc81c \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc774 \uc7a0\uc7ac \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc9c0\uba70 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)** \ucd95\uc18c\uac00 \uacb9\uce58\uba74\uc11c \uc0c1\ubc29 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc6b0\uc138\ud558\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ubcf4\uc870\uae08\uc774 \uac00\uaca9 \uc804\uac00\ub97c \uc9c0\uc5f0\uc2dc\ud0a4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 2026\ub144 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \ud3c9\uade0 3%\ub85c 2025\ub144 1.9%\uc5d0\uc11c \ub192\uc544\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba70, GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 2026\ub144 5.3%(2025\ub144 5.1%)\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. \uc778\ub3c4\ub124\uc2dc\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BI)\uc758 \uae34\ucd95\uc740 \uc77c\ubd80 \ubc29\uc5b4 \uc694\uc778\uc774\ub2e4. 5\uc6d4 50bp(0.50%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ub2e8\ud589\ud588\uace0, **SRBI 12\uac1c\uc6d4\ubb3c \uc218\uc775\ub960(central bank bills yield: \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ubc1c\ud589\ud558\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30\uc99d\uad8c \uae08\ub9ac)**\uc740 6.8% \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc BI\uac00 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c 25bp\uc529 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \ub354 \uc778\uc0c1\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \uae34\uc7a5 \uc644\ud654\uac00 \uc720\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 USD\/IDR \ubc29\ud5a5 \uc804\ud658\uc758 \ucd09\ub9e4\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub3c4 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

Persisting Macro and Domestic Pressures on the Rupiah<\/h3>\n

\uac70\uc2dc \uc9c0\ud45c\uc758 \uc5ed\ud48d\uc774 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc778\ub3c4\ub124\uc2dc\uc544 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544\ub97c \uacc4\uc18d \uc555\ubc15\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\ub2e4. 2\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac 4.1% \uc548\ud30e\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uace0, \uc720\uac00\ub294 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 90\ub2ec\ub7ec \uadfc\ucc98\uc758 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. **\ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \ub9e4\ub825\uc744 \ub192\uc5ec(\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138) \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4**\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544 \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uad6d\ub0b4 \uc694\uc778\ub3c4 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b4\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 \uacbd\uc0c1\uc218\uc9c0 \uc801\uc790\ub294 GDP \ub300\ube44 1.1%\ub85c \ud655\ub300\ub410\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70 \ud751\uc790 \uae30\uc870\uc5d0\uc11c \uc801\uc790\ub85c \ubc14\ub010 \uc810\uc774 \ud06c\uace0, \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ubcf4\uc870\uae08\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc7ac\uc815 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uacb9\uce58\uba70 \ud1b5\ud654\uc758 \ubc29\uc5b4\ub825\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 **USD\/IDR(\ub2ec\ub7ec\/\ub8e8\ud53c\uc544 \ud658\uc728)**\uc774 \uc218\ub144 \ub9cc\uc758 \uace0\uc810 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc2dc\ud5d8\ud558\uba70 16,500\uc120\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc778\ub3c4\ub124\uc2dc\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc5d0 \ub098\uc11c\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub2ec \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 50bp \uc62c\ub838\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5f0\ub0b4 \ucd5c\uc18c \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 25bp \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. **\ud1b5\ud654\uae34\ucd95(tightening: \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc904\uc5ec \ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\ud658\uc728\uc744 \uc548\uc815\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \uc870\uce58)** \uc758\uc9c0\ub294 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544\uc5d0 \uc77c\ubd80 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc744 \uc900\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc218\ucd9c\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ud55c \uc815\ubd80 \uac1c\uc785 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc6b0\ub824\ub85c \ud22c\uc790\uc2ec\ub9ac\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubd88\uc548\uc815\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

Market Positioning, Risks, and Triggers for Reversal<\/h3>\n

USD\/IDR \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ucd94\uc138\uac00 \uac15\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc704\ud5d8 \ub300\ube44 \uae30\ub300\uc218\uc775(risk-reward)\uc740 \ubc14\ub00c\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ud658\uc728\uc740 **\uacfc\ub9e4\uc218(overbought: \ub2e8\uae30\uac04 \uae09\ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c4 \uc0c1\ud0dc)** \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0 \uc9c4\uc785\ud588\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 **RSI(Relative Strength Index: \uc0c1\ub300\uac15\ub3c4\uc9c0\uc218, 0~100 \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c 70 \uc774\uc0c1\uc774\uba74 \uacfc\ub9e4\uc218\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \uae30\uc220 \uc9c0\ud45c)**\uac00 70\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c3\ub3c8\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \uc81c\uae30\ub41c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c **\uc2e4\uc9c8\uc2e4\ud6a8\ud658\uc728(REER: \ubb3c\uac00\uc640 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uad50\uc5ed \uc0c1\ub300\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \u2018\uccb4\uac10 \ud658\uc728\u2019)** \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uba74 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544\ub294 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud788 \uc800\ud3c9\uac00\ub3fc \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 2013\ub144 \u2018\ud14c\uc774\ud37c \ud150\ud2b8\ub7fc\u2019 \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc640 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc800\ud3c9\uac00 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \ubd84\uc11d\uc774\ub2e4. *(\ud14c\uc774\ud37c \ud150\ud2b8\ub7fc: \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \uc591\uc801\uc644\ud654 \ucd95\uc18c\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uc790 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc790\uae08\uc774 \ube60\uc9c0\uba70 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \ud754\ub4e4\ub838\ub358 \uad6d\uba74)*<\/p>\n

\uc774\ucc98\ub7fc \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \ud55c\ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uc3e0\ub9b0 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 USD\/IDR \uae09\ub4f1\uc744 \ucd94\uaca9 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ubc14\ub78c\uc9c1\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2dc\uac01\uc774\ub2e4. \ub300\uc2e0 **\uc635\uc158(options: \ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub97c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)**\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc608\ucee8\ub300 USD\/IDR **\ud48b\uc635\uc158(put: \ud658\uc728 \ud558\ub77d \uc2dc \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)** \uc911\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 **\uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money: \ud604\uc7ac \ud658\uc728\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubd88\ub9ac\ud55c \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uaca9\uc774\ub77c \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc774 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2fc \uc635\uc158)**\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74, \ucd09\ub9e4\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c \ube44\uc6a9\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub178\ucd9c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc \ucd09\ubc1c \uc694\uc778\ub3c4 \uc810\uac80\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5 \uc644\ud654, \ud2b9\ud788 \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \uac08\ub4f1\uc774 \uc9c4\uc815\ub418\uba74 \uc720\uac00\uac00 \uae09\ub77d\ud558\uace0 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uae30 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ub454\ud654 \uc870\uc9d0\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uba74 **\uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \uae30\ub300(Fed rate expectations: \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c)**\uac00 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uba70 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uace0, \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc USD\/IDR\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9b4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\u00b7\uace0\uc720\uac00\uc5d0 \ubbf8\u00b7\uc778\ub2c8 \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28 \ucd95\uc18c, \uacbd\uc0c1\uc218\uc9c0 \uc801\uc790 \ud655\ub300\uae4c\uc9c0 \uacb9\uce58\uba70 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544 \uc57d\uc138 \uc555\ub825. BI \uae34\ucd95\uc774 \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\ub098 \uacfc\ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\uc800\ud3c9\uac00 \uc18d \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \uc644\ud654 \ub550 \ubc18\uc804 \ucd09\ub9e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47474","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47474"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47474\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47474"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47474"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47474"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}