{"id":47457,"date":"2026-05-26T23:18:12","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T23:18:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/pce-%eb%ac%bc%ea%b0%80%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c-%eb%b0%9c%ed%91%9c%eb%a5%bc-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-%eb%b0%98%eb%8f%84%ec%b2%b4%ec%a3%bc-%ea%b8%89%eb%93%b1%ec%97%90-sp-500%c2%b7%eb%82%98%ec%8a%a4\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T23:18:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T23:18:12","slug":"pce-%eb%ac%bc%ea%b0%80%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c-%eb%b0%9c%ed%91%9c%eb%a5%bc-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-%eb%b0%98%eb%8f%84%ec%b2%b4%ec%a3%bc-%ea%b8%89%eb%93%b1%ec%97%90-sp-500%c2%b7%eb%82%98%ec%8a%a4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/pce-%eb%ac%bc%ea%b0%80%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c-%eb%b0%9c%ed%91%9c%eb%a5%bc-%ec%95%9e%eb%91%90%ea%b3%a0-%eb%b0%98%eb%8f%84%ec%b2%b4%ec%a3%bc-%ea%b8%89%eb%93%b1%ec%97%90-sp-500%c2%b7%eb%82%98%ec%8a%a4\/","title":{"rendered":"PCE \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uc8fc \uae09\ub4f1\uc5d0 S&#038;P 500\u00b7\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\u2026\ub2e4\uc6b0\ub294 \ubd80\uc9c4"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac\uc5bc\ub370\uc774 \ud734\uc7a5 \uc774\ud6c4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc\ub294 \uc7ac\uac1c\uc7a5\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 S&#038;P500\uacfc \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 \uc885\ud569\uc9c0\uc218\uac00 \uc7a5\uc911 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \uc0c8\ub85c \uc37c\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \ub2e4\uc6b0\uc874\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc5c5\ud3c9\uade0\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc57d 0.3% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0, \ub2e4\uc6b0 \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 \uac70\ub798\uac00 \ud55c\uc0b0\ud55c \uc57c\uac04\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d\uc138\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uad00\ub828\uc8fc(\uce69 \uc885\ubaa9) \uc911\uc2ec\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\uac00 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud55c \uac83\uc774 \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654\uc758 \ubc30\uacbd\uc774\ub2e4. \ub9c8\uc774\ud06c\ub860\uc740 17% \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\uba70 \uc2dc\uac00\ucd1d\uc561 1\uc870\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uc130\uace0(\uc2dc\uac00\ucd1d\uc561: \uc8fc\uac00\u00d7\ubc1c\ud589\uc8fc\uc2dd\uc218\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uac00\uce58), \uc528\uac8c\uc774\ud2b8\uc640 \uc6e8\uc2a4\ud134\ub514\uc9c0\ud138\ub3c4 \ub3d9\ubc18 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 \ube44\uc2fc \uc885\ubaa9\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ub354 \ud070 \u2018\uc8fc\uac00\uac00\uc911 \uc9c0\uc218\u2019(\uad6c\uc131 \uc885\ubaa9\uc758 \uc8fc\uac00 \uc218\uc900\uc774 \ub192\uc744\uc218\ub85d \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0 \ub354 \ud070 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc8fc\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd)\uc778 \ub2e4\uc6b0\ub294 \uc0b0\uc5c5\u00b7\uae08\uc735 \ube44\uc911\uc774 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub192\uc544, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070(\ud558\uc774\ubca0\ud0c0: \uc2dc\uc7a5\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc8fc\uac00 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070) \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \ub300\ud615\uc8fc \ub7a0\ub9ac\uc5d0\uc11c \uc18c\uc678\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub2e4\uc6b0 \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 \uc774\ub978 \uc2dc\uac04 5\ub9cc800\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub2e4\uac00 \uc7a5 \uc804(\ud504\ub9ac\ub9c8\ucf13: \uc815\uaddc\uc7a5 \uc2dc\uc791 \uc804 \uac70\ub798 \uc2dc\uac04)\uc5d0\ub294 5\ub9cc500\uc120 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \ubc00\ub838\ub2e4. \uc55e\uc11c 5\ub9cc1000\uc120 \uc548\ud30e\uc5d0\uc11c \uc644\ub9cc\ud788 \ub0b4\ub824\uc628 \ud750\ub984\uc774\ub2e4. \ud655\ub960\uc801 RSI(\uc2a4\ud1a1\uce90\uc2a4\ud2f1 RSI: RSI\uc758 \uc704\uce58\ub97c 0~100 \ubc94\uc704\ub85c \uc815\uaddc\ud654\ud574 \uacfc\uc5f4\u00b7\uce68\uccb4 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \ubcf4\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 \uad6c\uac04 \ud558\ub2e8\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud574 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc774\ub780 \ub0a8\ubd80 \uacf5\uc2b5 \uc774\ud6c4 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\uac00 \uc57d 4% \uc62c\ub77c \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 100\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc6d0\uc720(WTI)\ub294 \uc57d 2% \ud558\ub77d\ud574 93\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc548\ud30e\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c8\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\ub2e4. CME\uadf8\ub8f9\uc758 \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58 \ud234(FedWatch: \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\u00b7\ub3d9\uacb0\u00b7\uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ucd94\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc740 7\uc6d4 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc57d 13%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc740 \ud55c\uad6d\uc2dc\uac04 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c 21\uc2dc30\ubd84(12:30 GMT) \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\ub294 \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(PCE) \ubb3c\uac00\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac00\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE(\uc2dd\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.3%, \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 PCE(\uc804\uccb4 \ubb3c\uac00) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 3.8%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Market Breadth, Tech Euphoria, and Warning Signs<\/h3>\n<p>\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \u2018\ud3ed\u2019(\ub9c8\ucf13 \ube0c\ub808\ub4dc\uc2a4: \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc885\ubaa9 \uc218, \uc5c5\uc885 \ud655\uc0b0 \uc815\ub3c4\ucc98\ub7fc \ub7a0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ud3ed\ub113\uac8c \uc9c4\ud589\ub418\ub294\uc9c0 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc774 \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \uac08\ub77c\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4 \uacbd\uacc4\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4. \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100\uc740 5\uc6d4\uc5d0 4% \ub118\uac8c \uc62c\ub790\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub2e4\uc6b0\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc6d4\uac04 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud50c\ub7ec\uc2a4 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6c0\uc744 \uacaa\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uc2e4\ubb3c\uacbd\uae30 \uc804\ubc18\uc758 \ud798\uc774\ub77c\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \ub099\uad00\uc5d0 \uae30\ub300\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7f0 \ud328\ud134\uc740 \uacfc\uac70\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub410\ub2e4. 2021\ub144 \ub9d0\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc77c\ubd80 \ucd08\ub300\ud615 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\uac00 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \uac00\ub838\uace0, \uc774\ud6c4 2022\ub144 \ud558\ub77d\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc0b0\uc5c5\u00b7\uae08\uc735 \ube44\uc911\uc774 \ud070 \ub2e4\uc6b0\ub294 \uc2e4\ubb3c\uacbd\uae30 \uccb4\uac10\uc5d0 \ub354 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c \uc5ec\uaca8\uc9c0\ub294\ub370, \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \uacbd\uace0 \uc2e0\ud638\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Bearish Dow Positioning, Energy Markets, and PCE Risks<\/h3>\n<p>\ub2e4\uc6b0 \uc120\ubb3c\uc774 5\ub9cc500\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \ucd94\uac00 \uc57d\uc138\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub0b4 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 SPDR \ub2e4\uc6b0\uc874\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc5c5\ud3c9\uade0 ETF(DIA) \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\ud48b: \ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub85c, \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc635\uc158) \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc120\ubb3c\uc774 5\ub9cc800 \uc800\ud56d\uc120(\uc800\ud56d: \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc2dc \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uac00\uaca9\ub300) \uc544\ub798\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb34\ub294 \ud55c, \ubc29\ud5a5\uc740 \uc544\ub798\ucabd\uc774 \ub354 \uc6b0\uc138\ud574 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \uac19\uc740 \ucabd \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc900\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8(\uc57d 100\ub2ec\ub7ec)\uc640 WTI \uac04 \uac00\uaca9 \ucc28(\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc: \ub450 \uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ucc28\uc774)\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uad00\ub828 \ubcf4\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ucd5c\uadfc 48\uc2dc\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548 \ud574\uc0c1 \uc6b4\uc1a1 \ubcf4\ud5d8\ub8cc(\uc120\ubc15 \ubcf4\ud5d8 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4)\uac00 15% \ub6f0\uc5c8\uace0, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \uc27d\uac8c \uc7a6\uc544\ub4e4\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c PCE \ubb3c\uac00\uc5d0 \uc774\ubaa9\uc774 \uc3e0\ub9b0\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI: \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uac00 \uad6c\uc785\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uce21\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc740 3.6%\ub85c \ub098\uc628 \ub9cc\ud07c, PCE\ub3c4 \ub192\uac8c \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub354 \uae34\ucd95\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c 7\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc 13%\uc5d0\uc11c 18% \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uc654\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\ub3c4 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubc1c\ud45c \uc804 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131: \uac00\uaca9 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9bc\uc758 \uc815\ub3c4)\uc774 \ub0ae\uc740 \ud3b8\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0\uc11c, \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\uc6b0 \uc57d\uc138 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 5\ub9cc800\uc120 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\ub4f1\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \ud558\ub77d \ub178\ucd9c\uc744 \ub298\ub9b4 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uace0, PCE\uac00 \ub192\uac8c \ub098\uc624\uba74 5\ub9cc000\uc758 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120(\uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \uac00\uaca9\ub300: \uc22b\uc790\uac00 \ub465\uadfc \uad6c\uac04\uc774\ub77c \ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc8fc\ubb38\uc774 \ubab0\ub9ac\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uc218\uc900)\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc7ac\uc2dc\ud5d8\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uce69 \ub7a0\ub9ac\uc5d0 S&#038;P500\u00b7\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\u2026\ub2e4\uc6b0\ub9cc \uc18c\uc678. \ub9c8\uc774\ud06c\ub860 17% \uae09\ub4f1, \ub2e4\uc6b0\uc120\ubb3c 5\ub9cc500\uc120 \uc57d\uc138. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8 100\ub2ec\ub7ec \uadfc\uc811\u00b7PCE \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \uc6b0\ub824 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47457\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}