{"id":47454,"date":"2026-05-26T22:21:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T22:21:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80%eb%b0%9c-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%b6%a9%ea%b2%a9%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b3%a0%ec%b0%a9\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T22:21:18","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T22:21:18","slug":"td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80%eb%b0%9c-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%b6%a9%ea%b2%a9%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b3%a0%ec%b0%a9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80%eb%b0%9c-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%b6%a9%ea%b2%a9%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b3%a0%ec%b0%a9\/","title":{"rendered":"TD\uc99d\uad8c \u201c\uc774\ub780\ubc1c \uc720\uac00 \ucda9\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uace0\ucc29\u2026\uc5f0\uc900, 2026\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TD\uc99d\uad8c(TD Securities)\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900)\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \u2018\ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c\u2019(higher-for-longer) \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc740 \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4. TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc744 \uc9d3\ub204\ub974\uba74\uc11c \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 \ub69c\ub837\ud558\uac8c \uc624\ub974\ub0b4\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \ud6a1\ubcf4\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uacfc \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ucc28\uc9c8\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00\uc640 \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654\uac00 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \u2018\uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\u2019(\uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654+\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9) \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uc815\ucc45\ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 \uc62c\ud574 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \uad00\ub9dd\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI) \uae30\ubc18 \uc218\uc694\uc640 \uace0\uc18c\ub4dd\uce35 \uc18c\ube44\uac00 \uae30\ucd08 \uc131\uc7a5(\uacbd\uae30\uc758 \ubc14\ub2e5)\uc744 \ubc1b\uce58\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc9c0\ubaa9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubb3c\uac00\uc640 \uad00\ub828\ud574 TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 \uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc774 \uad50\ucc29 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc5d0 \ube60\uc9c0\uace0 \uc720\uac00\uac00 \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uba70 \uacf5\uae09 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74 \uc62c\ud574\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9) \ub454\ud654\uac00 \uc9c4\uc804\ub418\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uadfc\uc6d0 CPI(\uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ub4f1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 2026\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.0%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub77c \uc815\uc810\uc744 \ucc0d\uace0, 2026\ub144 \ub9d0\uc5d0\ub294 \uc5f0\ucd08\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9c8\uac10\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE(\uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c \ubb3c\uac00, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc911\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c \uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc81c\uc678)\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud558\uac8c \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubd24\ub2e4. \uc720\uac00 \ucda9\uaca9\uc758 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc740 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\uc804\uccb4 \ubb3c\uac00)\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubb3c\uac00 \ub454\ud654\ub294 \uc644\ub9cc\ud558\uac8c \uc9c4\ud589\ub3fc 2027\ub144\uc5d0\uc57c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc0dd\uae38 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc774\ub780 \uad00\ub828 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uacfc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \ud1b5\uc0c1(\ubb34\uc5ed)\u00b7\uc7ac\uc815\u00b7\uaddc\uc81c\u00b7\uc774\ubbfc \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation Backdrop<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uba74, \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 2026\ub144 \ub0a8\uc740 \uae30\uac04 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uba70 \uc774\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uacf5\uac1c\ub41c \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC) \uc758\uc0ac\ub85d(\ud68c\uc758\ub85d)\uc740 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \ud655\uc778\ud574 \uc92c\uace0, \uc77c\ubd80 \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc740 \ub514\uc2a4\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960 \ub454\ud654)\uc774 \uba48\ucdc4\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc5fc\ub450\uc5d0 \ub458 \ud575\uc2ec \ud750\ub984\uc740 \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u2019\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc774 \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc740 \ud604\uc2e4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd88\uc548\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc6d0\uc720(WTI\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ub300\ud45c \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 \uc774\ub2ec \ub0b4\ub0b4 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 95\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub3fc \uc6d0\uac00 \ubd80\ub2f4(\uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \ud22c\uc785\ube44\uc6a9)\uc744 \uc9c1\uc811 \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \uc555\ub825\uc9c0\uc218(Global Supply Chain Pressure Index\u00b7\uc6b4\uc1a1 \ucc28\uc9c8, \ubc30\uc1a1 \uc9c0\uc5f0, \ube44\uc6a9 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ub4f1\uc744 \uc885\ud569\ud574 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 \ucd5c\uadfc \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \uc810\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud558\uba74, \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \u2018\ub048\uc801\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\u2019(sticky inflation)\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ucd5c\uadfc \uc9c0\ud45c\ub3c4 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc2dc\uac01\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 4\uc6d4 CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 2.8%\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098, \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ub354 \uc2dd\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\ub300\ud588\ub358 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uc744 \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc870\ub9cc\uac04 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ub4f1)\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc5f0\ub9d0\ub85c \uac08\uc218\ub85d 3.0%\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud574 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc624\ub97c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uad00\uce21\uc774 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Market Strategies and Historical Parallels<\/h3>\n<p>\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \ub4f1 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488) \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc640 \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9bc)\uc774 \uc624\ub798 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ub370 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc9c0\uc218(DXY\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uac00\uce58\ub97c \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ubc14\uc2a4\ucf13\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b8 \uc9c0\uc218)\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 106.50 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c, \uc120\ubb3c\uacc4\uc57d\uc774\ub098 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc73c\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc9c0\uc218 \ub9e4\uc218 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uac00\uc838\uac00\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ud070 \ud3ed\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5, \uc608\ucee8\ub300 \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44\uc120\ubb3c \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\uc218\ub3c4 \ub300\uc548\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uacfc\uac70\ub85c \ubcf4\uba74 1970\ub144\ub300 \ud6c4\ubc18\ucc98\ub7fc \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uacfc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uc774 \uacb9\ucce4\ub358 \uc2dc\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc640 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc7a5\uae30\uac04 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc7ac\ud604\ub418\uba70 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ud2b9\uc9d5\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uad00\uce21\uc774\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\uc218(\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ubc29\uc5b4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u201d \uacbd\uace0\ub4f1. TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 \uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1\ubc1c \uc720\uac00\u00b7\uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ucda9\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba70 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 2026\ub144 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \ub3d9\uacb0, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc744 \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201c\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u201d \uacbd\uace0\ub4f1. 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