{"id":47452,"date":"2026-05-26T21:50:39","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T21:50:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/bnp%ed%8c%8c%eb%a6%ac%eb%b0%94-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-%ec%84%b1%ec%9e%a5%ec%84%b8-2026%eb%85%84-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89-%ec%a0%95\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T21:50:39","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T21:50:39","slug":"bnp%ed%8c%8c%eb%a6%ac%eb%b0%94-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-%ec%84%b1%ec%9e%a5%ec%84%b8-2026%eb%85%84-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89-%ec%a0%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/bnp%ed%8c%8c%eb%a6%ac%eb%b0%94-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-%ec%84%b1%ec%9e%a5%ec%84%b8-2026%eb%85%84-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89-%ec%a0%95\/","title":{"rendered":"BNP\ud30c\ub9ac\ubc14 \u201c\uc77c\ubcf8 \uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5\uc138, 2026\ub144 \ub454\ud654\u2026\uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4 160\uc5d4 \uc548\ud30e \uc720\uc9c0\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>BNP\ud30c\ub9ac\ubc14\ub294 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 \uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0(GDP\u00b7\ud55c \ub098\ub77c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc77c\uc815 \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub41c \uc7ac\ud654\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc758 \ubd80\uac00\uac00\uce58 \ud569\uacc4) \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 2025\ub144 1.1%\uc5d0\uc11c 2026\ub144 0.5%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158)\uacfc \uc0dd\uc0b0\ube44(\uae30\uc5c5\uc774 \uc81c\ud488\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \ub370 \ub4dc\ub294 \ube44\uc6a9) \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc744 \uc555\ubc15\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 2022\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc5f0\uac04 \uae30\uc900(y\/y\u00b7\uc804\ub144 \uac19\uc740 \ub2ec \ub300\ube44) 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\uace0, \ucd5c\uc18c 2028\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uadf8 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BOJ)\uc740 2024\ub144\ubd80\ud130 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654(\uc800\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uacf5\uae09\uc73c\ub85c \uacbd\uae30\ub97c \ub3d5\ub294 \uc815\ucc45) \uac15\ub3c4\ub97c \uc870\uc815\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uacfc\uac70 \ub9c8\uc774\ub108\uc2a4 \uae08\ub9ac(\uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 0% \uc544\ub798\uc778 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\ub97c \uc6b4\uc601\ud588\ub358 \uac83\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098 \ud604\uc7ac\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 0.75%\ub85c \uc62c\ub838\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654(\ube44\uc815\uc0c1\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub0ae\uc558\ub358 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ubcf4\ud1b5 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9ac\ub294 \uacfc\uc815)\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 2\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\uc0c1 1\ud68c\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud574, 2027\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ucd5c\uc885 \uc218\uc900(\ud130\ubbf8\ub110 \ub808\uc774\ud2b8\u00b7\uc778\uc0c1 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \ub05d\ub098\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac) 2.0%\uc5d0 \uc811\uadfc\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubd24\ub2e4. \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4(USD\/JPY)\uc774 2026\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 160 \uc548\ud30e\uc5d0\uc11c \uc548\uc815\ub41c \ub4a4 2027\ub144\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc77c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\/\ub2ec\ub7ec(GBP\/USD)\ub294 2026\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 1.35\ub97c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\uace0 2027\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc720\uc0ac\ud55c \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Macroeconomic Outlook and Policy Normalization<\/h3>\n<p>\uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 0.5%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 1.1%\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \uc0dd\uc0b0\ube44 \uc99d\uac00\uac00 \uae30\uc5c5\uacfc \uac00\uacc4(\uc18c\ube44\uc790)\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc8fc\uba70 \ub0b4\uc218(\uad6d\ub0b4 \uc18c\ube44\u00b7\ud22c\uc790 \uc911\uc2ec\uc758 \uacbd\uae30)\uc5d0 \ubd88\ub9ac\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub7f0 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ub3c4\ucfc4 \uadfc\uc6d0 CPI(\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uc2e0\uc120\uc2dd\ud488 \ub4f1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud574 \ubb3c\uac00 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ub354 \uc798 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 2.4%\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2\ub144 \ub118\uac8c \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3c8 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc555\ub825\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc870\uc815 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uc778\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc624\ub298(2026\ub144 5\uc6d4 26\uc77c) \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c, \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc774\ubc88 \ubd84\uae30(2\ubd84\uae30) \uc548\uc5d0 25bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ub2e8\ud589\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 1.00%\uac00 \ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2024\ub144\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uc815\ucc45 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\uc758 \uc5f0\uc7a5\uc120\uc774\uba70, 2027\ub144 \ub9d0 2.0%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Currency and Equity Market Implications<\/h3>\n<p>\uc678\ud658 \ud22c\uc790\uc790 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5d4\ud654 \uae09\ub77d(\uc5d4 \uc57d\uc138)\uc774 \uc77c\ub2e8\ub77d\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \ub0a8\uc740 \uae30\uac04 160 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uade0\ud615\uc744 \ucc3e\uace0 \uc548\uc815\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc635\uc158(\ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac\u00b7\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac) \uc804\ub7b5\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4(\uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4dc\ub294 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uac70\ub798)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc20f \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(short strangle\u00b7\ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uac00 \ub2e4\ub978 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc77c\uc815 \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\uba74 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \uc5bb\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uacfc\uac70 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ucd08\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uc5d4\ud654\uac00 \ubc14\ub85c \uac15\uc138\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. 2000\ub144\ub300 \uc911\ud6c4\ubc18\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc81c\ub85c\uae08\ub9ac \uc815\ucc45(\uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 0%\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c(\uc624\ub974\ub0b4\ub9bc\uc740 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc77c\uc815 \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \ud750\ub984)\uc73c\ub85c \ucd9c\ub801\uc600\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc0ac\ub840\ub294 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \uc5d4\ud654\uac00 160 \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub69c\ub837\ud558\uac8c \uac15\ud574\uc9c0\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2dc\uac01\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654\uc640 \ucc28\uc785\ube44\uc6a9(\ub300\ucd9c\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \ub298\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \uc774\uc790 \ubd80\ub2f4) \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd80\ub2f4 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uc8fc\uc2dd\u00b7\uc9c0\uc218 \ub4f1\uc744 \uae30\ucd08\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e0 \uae08\uc735\uc0c1\ud488) \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub294 \uc8fc\uc2dd \ube44\uc911\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624(\uc790\uc0b0 \uad6c\uc131)\ub97c \ubc29\uc5b4(\ud5e4\uc9c0\u00b7\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uac70\ub798)\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ub2db\ucf00\uc774225\uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc57d\uc138 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(\ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798)\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74 \ub2e8\uae30 \ud558\ub77d \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4 \uc218\ub2e8\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\uc77c\ubcf8, \uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654 \uc18d \uae08\ub9ac \uc815\uc0c1\ud654 \uac00\uc18d\u201d BNP\ud30c\ub9ac\ubc14\ub294 2026\ub144 GDP 0.5% \uc804\ub9dd. \uc778\ud50c\ub808 2%\ub300 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc5d0 BOJ 2027\ub144\ub9d0 2% \uadfc\uc811, \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4 160 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c \uc608\uc0c1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47452","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47452"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47452\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}