{"id":47450,"date":"2026-05-26T21:20:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T21:20:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%95%95%eb%a0%a5-%ec%a7%80%ec%86%8d%ec%97%90-7%ec%9b%94-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T21:20:19","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T21:20:19","slug":"%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%95%95%eb%a0%a5-%ec%a7%80%ec%86%8d%ec%97%90-7%ec%9b%94-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%95%95%eb%a0%a5-%ec%a7%80%ec%86%8d%ec%97%90-7%ec%9b%94-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc5d0 7\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \ud655\ub300\u2026\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 RBNZ \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>MUFG \uc804\ub7b5\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBNZ)\uc758 \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \uacb0\uc815\uc774 **\u2018\uc774\ubca4\ud2b8 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\u2019(\ud2b9\uc815 \uc77c\uc815\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud754\ub4e4\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8)**\ub77c\uace0 \uc9c0\ubaa9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub300\uccb4\ub85c **\uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac(OCR\u00b7Official Cash Rate, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac)**\ub97c \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc **\ub3d9\uacb0**\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 RBNZ\uac00 **7\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9b4 \uc5ec\uc9c0**\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ubd80\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 **\ubb3c\uac00(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158) \ud750\ub984**\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacbd\uacc4\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uacb0\uc815\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \uae08\ub9ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubc18\uc601\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74 7\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 **\uc57d 16bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b70.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131**\uc774 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc77c\ubd80 \ud3ec\ud568\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uace1\uc120\uc740 **\uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 3\ucc28\ub840 \uc778\uc0c1(3\ubc88\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1)**\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. RBNZ\ub294 4\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c **\uc911\uae30 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825(\uba87 \ubd84\uae30~\uc218\ub144\uc758 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \uac78\uce5c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825)**\uc774 \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74 \u201cOCR\uc744 **\ube60\ub974\uace0 \ubd84\uba85\ud558\uac8c** \uc62c\ub9b4 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc815\ucc45 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c **\uc911\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c 2%\ub85c \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9ac\ub294 \uac83**\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3> Hawkish Market Positioning and Drivers <\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc RBNZ \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 **7\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc2e0\ud638**\uac00 \ucd5c\ub300 \uad00\uc2ec\uc0ac\ub2e4. \uc624\ub298(2026\ub144 5\uc6d4 26\uc77c) \uae30\uc900 **\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \uc2dc\uc7a5(\uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc2a4\uc651\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \ub4f1 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5)**\uc740 7\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uac8c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 **\uac70\uc758 3\ucc28\ub840 \uc778\uc0c1**\uc744 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub2f4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \uc774\ub807\uac8c \ud55c\ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uc3e0\ub824 \uc788\uc73c\uba74, RBNZ \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0\uac00 \uae30\ub300 \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc870\uae08\ub9cc \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098\ub3c4 **\ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\ub2ec\ub7ec(NZD)\uc640 \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac** \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ucc98\ub7fc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc778)**\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4 \uc788\ub294 \ubc30\uacbd\uc740 \uc124\ub4dd\ub825\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\uc758 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 **4.5%**\ub85c RBNZ \ubaa9\ud45c \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc740 RBNZ\uac00 \u201c\ub2e8\ud638\ud558\uac8c \ub300\uc751\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\u201d\ub294 \uae30\uc874 \uacbd\uace0\uc640 \ub9de\ubb3c\ub9b0\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ud06c\uac8c \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uba74 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9b4 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc0dd\uae34\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \ube60\ub4ef\ud558\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 4\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 **3.9%**\ub85c \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 **\uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9(\uadfc\ub85c\uc790 \uc784\uae08\uc774 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud750\ub984)**\uc744 \uc790\uadf9\ud558\uba70, RBNZ\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\ud558\ub824\ub294 **\uc911\uae30 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825**\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc774\ub2e4. MUFG\ub294 \uc774\ub7f0 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \uacb0\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc5b4\ub290 \uc815\ub3c4 \ud655\uc778\ud574\uc904 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3> Trading Strategies, Historical Context, and Risks <\/h3>\n<p>\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548\uc740 **NZD \uac15\uc138**\uc640 **\ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9**\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud55c \uac00\uc9c0 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 **NZD \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 NZD\ub97c \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub85c, \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc2dc \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub418 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc635\uc158 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95)**\ub2e4. RBNZ\uac00 7\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \ub9e4\ud30c \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0\ub97c \ub0b4\uba74 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc5f4\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 **2\ub144\ubb3c \uc2a4\uc651\uae08\ub9ac(2\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uad50\ud658\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d\uc5d0\uc11c \ud615\uc131\ub418\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\ub85c, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc798 \ubc18\uc601)**\ub97c \uc8fc\uc2dc\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud574\ub2f9 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 3\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc774\ubbf8 **50bp \uc774\uc0c1** \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\uba70 \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>RBNZ\uc758 **2021~2023\ub144 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uad6d\uba74(\ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc62c\ub838\ub358 \uacfc\uac70 \uae30\uac04)**\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub300\uc751\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ucc38\uace0 \uc0ac\ub840\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uacfc\uac70 \ud589\ud0dc\ub97c \uac10\uc548\ud558\uba74, RBNZ\uc758 \uacbd\uace0\uc131 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740 \uac00\ubccd\uac8c \ubcf4\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4. MUFG\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 **\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\uc62c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131** \ucabd\uc5d0 \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub2e4\ub9cc \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uc704\ud5d8\uc740 RBNZ\uac00 \uad6d\ub0b4 \ubb3c\uac00\ubcf4\ub2e4 **\uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654(\uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5\uc138 \uc57d\ud654)** \uc6b0\ub824\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1 \ubc16\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \uac15\uc870\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \uae09\ud788 \ub418\ub3cc\ub824\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c NZD\uac00 \uae09\ub77d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c **\uc635\uc158\uc73c\ub85c \uc190\uc2e4 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c**\ud558\uac70\ub098, NZD \ub9e4\uc218 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc5d0\ub294 **\ud0c0\uc774\ud2b8\ud55c \uc2a4\ud1b1\ub85c\uc2a4(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc77c\uc815 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud558\uba74 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ub9c9\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc790\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uccad\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \uc8fc\ubb38)**\ub97c \uad8c\uace0\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\ub3d9\uacb0\uc740 \uae30\ubcf8, 7\uc6d4 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uac00 \ubcc0\uc218.\u201d MUFG\ub294 RBNZ \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub85c \uc9c0\ubaa9. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 7\uc6d4 16bp\u00b7\uc5f0\ub9d0 3\ud68c \uc778\uc0c1 \ubc18\uc601, \ubc1c\uc5b8 \ud55c \uc904\uc5d0 NZD\u00b7\ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \uae09\ubcc0 \uac00\ub2a5.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47450"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47450\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}