\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c(Rabobank)\ub294 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc774 \ucd5c\ub300 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc815\uc0c1 \uc6b4\ud56d\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf5\uadc0\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\ub294 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uacf5\uae09 \uce21\uba74\uc758 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0, \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uc11d\uc720\u00b7\uac00\uc2a4 \uc6b4\uc1a1 \ubb3c\ub7c9\uc758 \uc0c1\ub2f9 \ubd80\ubd84\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc740\ud589\uc740 \ucd94\uac00 \uc804\uc7c1 \uc704\ud5d8, \ud56d\ub85c \uc815\ub9ac(\uc120\ubc15 \ud1b5\ud589\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \uc548\uc804 \ud655\ubcf4) \uc9c0\uc5f0, \uc678\ubd80 \uc138\ub825 \uac1c\uc785 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \uacbd\uace0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uae09\ub09c(\uacf5\uae09 \ubd80\uc871\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131)\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba70, \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \ubc0f \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc218\uc815\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\u2018\uc11d\uc720-\ub300-\uc11d\uc720(oil-for-oil)\u2019 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc758 \ud569\uc758(\ud604\uae08 \ub300\uc2e0 \uc11d\uc720\ub85c \uacb0\uc81c\u00b7\uad50\ud658\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798)\ub294 \uc774\ub780\uc5d0 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc678\ud654(FX\u00b7foreign exchange, \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub4f1 \ud574\uc678 \ud1b5\ud654)\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \ub4a4\uc5d0 \ubb36\uc5ec \uc788\ub294 1,550\ucc99\uc758 \uc120\ubc15\uc774 \ube60\uc838\ub098\uac08 \uc218 \uc788\uac8c \ub418\uba74, \ud55c \ubc88\uc5d0 \ubb3c\ub7c9\uc774 \ud480\ub9ac\uba70 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uacf5\uae09\uc774 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae09\uc99d\ud574 \uc774\ub780\uc758 \ud611\uc0c1\ub825\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2e4\ubb34 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae30\ub8b0 \uc81c\uac70(\ubc14\ub2e4\uc5d0 \uc124\uce58\ub41c \ud3ed\ubc1c\ubb3c \uc81c\uac70)\uac00 30\uc77c\uc744 \ub118\uae38 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubd80 \ucd94\uc815\uc740 6\uc8fc\ub97c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uac00\uc815\ud558\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 7\uc6d4 \uc911\uc21c \uc7ac\uac1c\ub97c \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub610 \ub2e4\ub978 \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub3d9\ub9f9\uad6d\uc774 \ud574\ud611 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub97c \uc9c0\uc6d0\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc73c\ub85c, \uc77c\uc815\uc740 \ub2e8\ucd95\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\ub098 \ubcf4\ubcf5\uacfc \ucda9\ub3cc \ud655\ub300 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c4\ub2e4. 5\uc6d4 19\uc77c\uc5d0\ub294 7\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud574\ud611\uc774 \uacc4\uc18d \ub2eb\ud600 \uc788\uc744 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ubd81\ub300\uc11c\uc591\uc870\uc57d\uae30\uad6c(NATO\u00b7\ub098\ud1a0) \ud68c\uc6d0\uad6d\ub4e4\uc774 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0 \uc911\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ubcf4\ub3c4\uac00 \ub098\uc654\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc774 \ucd5c\ub300 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uac00 \uc720\ub825\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9(\uacf5\uae09 \uae09\uac10\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\u00b7\ubb3c\ub7c9 \ucda9\uaca9)\uc744 \uc7a5\uae30\uac04 \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0\uc11c \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00(\uc704\ud5d8 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 \ud655\ub300)\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec \ub300\uc751\uc740 \uc720\uac00\uc640 \uac00\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uc624\ub798 \uc720\uc9c0\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\ubc88 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \ubd09\uc1c4\uac00 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc774\uc720\ub294, \uc774 \ud574\ud611\uc774 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uc11d\uc720 \uc18c\ube44\uc758 \uc57d 20%\uac00 \ud1b5\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \u2018\ubcd1\ubaa9 \uad6c\uac04(\ucd08\ud06c\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b7chokepoint, \uc77c\ubd80 \uad6c\uac04\uc774 \ub9c9\ud788\uba74 \uc804\uccb4 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uba48\ucd94\ub294 \ud1b5\ub85c)\u2019\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc815\ubcf4\uccad(EIA\u00b7Energy Information Administration)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 2023\ub144 \ud558\ub8e8 2,100\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4\uc774 \ub118\ub294 \uc11d\uc720(\uc6d0\uc720 \ubc0f \uc815\uc81c \uc804 \ub2e8\uacc4\u00b7\uc911\uac04 \ub2e8\uacc4 \uc561\uccb4 \ud3ec\ud568)\uac00 \uc774\uacf3\uc744 \ud1b5\uacfc\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc740 \uc989\uc2dc \ub300\uccb4\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4. \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uc5ec\uc720 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub2a5\ub825(\ub2f9\uc7a5 \ucd94\uac00 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ubb3c\ub7c9)\uc774 \uc774\ub807\uac8c \ud070 \uacf5\ubc31\uc744 \uac11\uc790\uae30 \uba54\uc6b0\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd80\uc871\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\ub97c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc548\ubcf4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \uc704\ud611\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c(\ubbf8\ub798\uc5d0 \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc6d0\uc720\ub97c \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \ud45c\uc900 \uacc4\uc57d)\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\uc218(\ub871) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720(\ubd81\ud574\uc0b0 \uad6d\uc81c \uae30\uc900\uc720)\uc640 WTI(\ubbf8\uad6d \uae30\uc900\uc720) 8\uc6d4\ubb3c\uacfc 9\uc6d4\ubb3c\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd98\ub2e4. \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\uc218\ub3c4 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc774\ub2e4. \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5ec\ub825\uc740 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc190\uc2e4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc0ac\uc804\uc5d0 \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. CBOE \uc6d0\uc720 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc218(OVX\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \ucd94\uc815\ud55c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac 30\ub300 \uc911\ubc18\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uae09\ub4f1\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc635\uc158 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9)\uc740 \uace7 \ud06c\uac8c \uc624\ub97c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uacfc\uac70 \uc911\ub3d9 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc758 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ucda9\uaca9\uc740 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \ubd88\ub7ec\uc654\ub2e4. 1990\ub144 \ucfe0\uc6e8\uc774\ud2b8 \uce68\uacf5 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc720\uac00\uac00 \ub450 \ubc30\ub85c \ub6f4 \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \ub300\ud45c\uc801\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub840\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud574\ud611\uc774 \uacc4\uc18d \ub9c9\ud790 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 150\ub2ec\ub7ec\uae4c\uc9c0 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uce58\uc19f\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ubd09\uc1c4\ub294 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ub2e8\uae30 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \uc704\uae30\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud574\uacb0 \uc2dc\uc810\uc740 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud06c\ub2e4. \uae30\ub8b0 \uc81c\uac70 \uc791\uc5c5\uc740 \ube68\ub77c\ub3c4 7\uc6d4 \uc911\uc21c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub098\ud1a0 \ud68c\uc6d0\uad6d \uac1c\uc785 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \uad70\uc0ac\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5 \uace0\uc870 \uc704\ud5d8(\ucda9\ub3cc \ud655\ub300\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ucd94\uac00 \uacf5\uae09 \ucc28\uc9c8)\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b4\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \uc811\uadfc\uc774 \ud0c0\ub2f9\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\ubc88 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc740 \uc6d0\uc720\ubfd0 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc561\ud654\ucc9c\uc5f0\uac00\uc2a4(LNG\u00b7\ucc9c\uc5f0\uac00\uc2a4\ub97c -162\u2103\ub85c \ub0c9\uac01\ud574 \ubd80\ud53c\ub97c \uc904\uc5ec \uc120\ubc15\uc73c\ub85c \uc6b4\uc1a1\ud558\ub294 \uc5f0\ub8cc) \ud750\ub984\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud070 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce5c\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc720\ub7fd\uacfc \uc544\uc2dc\uc544\ub85c \ud5a5\ud558\ub294 \ubb3c\ub7c9\uc774 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ucc9c\uc5f0\uac00\uc2a4 \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ub9e4\uc218(\ub871) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ubc18 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0(\uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4 \uac70\ub798)\ub3c4 \uace0\ub824\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ud56d\uacf5, \uc911\ud6c4\uc7a5\ub300 \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5(\ucca0\uac15\u00b7\ud654\ud559 \ub4f1 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc0ac\uc6a9\uc774 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc5c5\uc885)\ucc98\ub7fc \uc6d0\uac00(\ud22c\uc785\ube44\uc6a9) \uae09\ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc2e4\uc801\uc774 \uc545\ud654\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc5c5\uc885\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud3ec\ud568\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u201c\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ubd09\uc1c4\u201d \ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c \uacbd\uace0\u2026\uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc11d\uc720 20% \ud1b5\ub85c \ub9c9\ud600 \uc720\uac00\u00b7\uac00\uc2a4 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 \ud655\ub300. \uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218 \uc720\ud6a8, 150\ub2ec\ub7ec\u00b7LNG \ucc28\uc9c8\ub3c4 \uac70\ub860.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47429","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47429"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47429\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47429"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47429"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47429"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}