BNY\uc758 \uc874 \ubca8\ub9ac\uc2a4(John Velis)\uc640 \ub370\uc774\ube44\ub4dc \ud0ec(David Tam)\uc740 5\uc6d4 \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC\u00b7\ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815 \ud68c\uc758) \uc758\uc0ac\ub85d\uacfc \uc5f0\uc900 \uc774\uc0ac \ud06c\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud1a0\ud37c \uc6d4\ub7ec(Christopher Waller)\uc758 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc744 \uc885\ud569\ud558\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc624\ub974\uac70\ub098 \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ubaa8\ub450 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c 2026\ub144 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ucca0\ud68c\ud558\uace0, \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uc5c6\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc1a1\uc774 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \ube68\ub9ac \uc7ac\uac1c\ub418\uba74(\uc774\ub4e4\uc774 \ub9d0\ud558\ub294 \u2018\ucd08~\ud55c\uc5ec\ub984\u2019), \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc218\uc815\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. 5\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\ub294 FOMC \uc131\uba85\uc11c(\ud68c\uc758 \uc9c1\ud6c4 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud558\ub294 \uacf5\uc2dd \ubb38\uad6c)\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \ub450\uace0 3\uba85\uc758 \ubc18\ub300 \uc758\uacac(\uc18c\uc218\uc758\uacac)\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4, \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\u00b7\uae34\ucd95 \uc120\ud638) \ub17c\uc7c1\uc774 \uac15\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc6d4\ub7ec\ub294 2025\ub144 7\uc6d4(\uace0\uc6a9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc6b0\ub824)\uacfc 2026\ub144 1\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ubc18\ub300 \uc758\uacac\uc744 \ub0b8 \ubc14 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300(\uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uae30\uac04\uc758 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub97c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1)\uac00 \uc7a5\uae30 \uae30\ub300(\uc7a5\uae30 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd)\ub85c \ubc88\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub9cc\ud07c \uc624\ub97c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \ud398\ub974\uc2dc\uc544\ub9cc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6d0\uc720 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub418\uba74 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ub17c\uc758\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc0b4\uc544\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4. \ub610 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(PCE) \ubb3c\uac00 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c(\ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc911\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c \uc911 \ud558\ub098)\uac00 \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub97c \ub354 \ud0a4\uc6cc, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc131\ud5a5\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae30\uc870\uac00 \ub69c\ub837\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub2e4\uc2dc \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. CME\uadf8\ub8f9(\uc2dc\uce74\uace0\uc0c1\ud488\uac70\ub798\uc18c \uc6b4\uc601\uc0ac) \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 2026\ub144 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc788\uc744 \ud655\ub960\uc740 10% \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c, \ubd88\uacfc \ub450 \ub2ec \uc804 \uc57d 60%\uc5d0\uc11c \uae09\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc62c\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 \uc0ad\uc81c\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uac71\uc815\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9)\uc774\uba70, \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc27d\uac8c \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 4\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7\ub300\ud45c\uc801\uc778 \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uccb4\uac10 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.8%\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud55c \ucd5c\uadfc \uc218\uce58\uac00 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc6b0\ub824\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(PCE) \ubb3c\uac00 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uac00 \uc911\uc694\ud558\uba70, \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\uac00 \ub354 \ube68\ub77c\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud574 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ub4f1)\ud560 \uc774\uc720\uac00 \uc5c6\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc904 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\ub294 \ud398\ub974\uc2dc\uc544\ub9cc\uc758 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774\ub2e4. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \ubd09\uc1c4\ub85c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c(\ubd81\ud574\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720\ub97c \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub294 \uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc740 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 115\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc9c1\uc811 \ubc00\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b0\ub2e4. \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc1a1\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc6d0\ud65c\ud574\uc9c0\uae30 \uc804\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc815\ucc45\uc740 \ubc14\ub00c\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uba70, \uadf8 \uc2dc\uc810\uc740 \ube68\ub77c\ub3c4 \ud55c\uc5ec\ub984 \uc804\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub418\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \ub4f1) \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uac70\ub098 \ub354 \uc624\ub97c \ub54c \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30\uac04 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(\ud22c\uc790 \ubc29\ud5a5)\uc740 \uacbd\uacc4\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub300\uc2e0 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \u2018\ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc\u2019\ub85c \ub0a8\ub294 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucd98 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158(\ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc120\ubb3c\uc744 \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub294 \uc635\uc158)\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uacfc\uac70 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc704\uae30\ucc98\ub7fc \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9(\uacf5\uae09 \uce21 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc0dd\uae30\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9)\uc73c\ub85c \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uae34\ucd95\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud574\uc57c \ud588\ub358 \uad6d\uba74\uacfc \ub2ee\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba74 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\ub3c4 \ub192\uc544\uc9c4\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 VIX \uc9c0\uc218(\ubbf8 \uc99d\uc2dc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec \u2018\uacf5\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc218\u2019\ub85c \ubd88\ub9bc)\uac00 20\uc744 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub294 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624(\ubcf4\uc720 \uc790\uc0b0 \ubb36\uc74c)\ub97c \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\uac70\ub098, \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \uc0ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5) \uac19\uc740 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc8fc\uc694 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c \uc804 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc6d4\ub7ec\ucc98\ub7fc \uc601\ud5a5\ub825 \uc788\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc778\uc0ac\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub9cc\ud07c \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uc120 \uc810\uc740, \ub354 \ud070 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9bc\uc744 \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u201c\uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \ubb3c \uac74\ub108\uac00\ub098\u201d BNY, \uc6d4\ub7ec \ubc1c\uc5b8\u00b7\uc758\uc0ac\ub85d \uadfc\uac70\ub85c 2026\ub144 \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd \ucca0\ud68c. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ubcc0\uc218\u00b7PCE\uac00 \ub9e4\ud30c \uac15\ud654, \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud655\ub300. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud655\ub960 \uae09\ub77d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47411"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47411\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}