{"id":47010,"date":"2026-05-19T11:18:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T11:18:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/rba-%ec%a4%91%eb%8f%99%eb%b0%9c-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%eb%a6%ac%ec%8a%a4%ed%81%ac-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0%ec%97%90-aud-jpy-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8-gdp\/"},"modified":"2026-05-19T11:18:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T11:18:14","slug":"rba-%ec%a4%91%eb%8f%99%eb%b0%9c-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%eb%a6%ac%ec%8a%a4%ed%81%ac-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0%ec%97%90-aud-jpy-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/rba-%ec%a4%91%eb%8f%99%eb%b0%9c-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%eb%a6%ac%ec%8a%a4%ed%81%ac-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0%ec%97%90-aud-jpy-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA, \uc911\ub3d9\ubc1c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uacbd\uace0\uc5d0 AUD\/JPY \ud558\ub77d\u2026\uc77c\ubcf8 GDP \ud638\uc870\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc5d4\ud654 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uc2e4\ud328"},"content":{"rendered":"

AUD\/JPY\ub294 \uc804\uc77c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84\uc744 \ubc18\ub0a9\ud558\uba70 \ud654\uc694\uc77c \uc720\ub7fd \ucd08\ubc18 113.40 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4. \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBA) \ud68c\uc758\ub85d\uc774 \uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9) \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uace0 \uc131\uc7a5(\uacbd\uae30 \ud655\uc7a5)\uc744 \ub454\ud654\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud55c \ub4a4 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uba70, \ud06c\ub85c\uc2a4(\ub450 \ud1b5\ud654 \uac04 \ud658\uc728)\ub3c4 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

RBA\uc758 \uc0c8\ub77c \ud5cc\ud130 \ubd80\ucd1d\uc7ac\ubcf4(Assistant Governor)\ub294 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uacbd\uc81c \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \ube61\ube61\ud55c(\uc218\uc694\uac00 \uac15\ud558\uace0 \uacf5\uae09\u00b7\uc778\ub825\u00b7\uc124\ube44\uac00 \ube60\ub4ef\ud55c) \uc0c1\ud669\uc774\ub77c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ube44\uc6a9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc5d0 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc804\uc774\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300(\uac00\uacc4\u00b7\uae30\uc5c5\uc774 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub97c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubbff\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\uac00 \ubc14\ub014 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc77c\ubcf8 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc9c0\ud45c \ud638\uc870\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc5d4\ud654 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uc2e4\ud328<\/h3>\n

AUD\/JPY \ud558\ub77d \ud3ed\uc740 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uc5d4\ud654\uac00 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uba70 \uc81c\ud55c\ub410\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc88b\uc558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc5d4\ud654\uc5d0\ub294 \ud070 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 \uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0(GDP\u00b7\ud55c \ub098\ub77c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub41c \uc7ac\ud654\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc758 \ucd1d\ud569)\uc740 \uc804\ubd84\uae30 \ub300\ube44(quarter-on-quarter\u00b7\uc804 \ubd84\uae30\uc640 \ube44\uad50) 0.5% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 \uc218\uce58(\ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub41c 0.2%)\uc5d0\uc11c \uac1c\uc120\ub410\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58 0.4%\ub3c4 \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc5f0\uc728 \ud658\uc0b0(annualised\u00b7\ubd84\uae30 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 1\ub144 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud658\uc0b0) \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 1\ubd84\uae30 GDP\uac00 2.1% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \uc9c1\uc804 \ubd84\uae30(\ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub41c 0.8%)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uace0, \uc804\ub9dd\uce58 1.7%\ub3c4 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud588\ub2e4. 6\uac1c \ubd84\uae30(1\ub144 \ubc18) \ub9cc\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \ube60\ub978 \ud655\uc7a5\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uae30\uc6b0\uce58 \ubbf8\ub178\ub8e8 \uacbd\uc81c\uc7ac\uc0dd\uc0c1\uc740 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uacfc \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uac00\uacc4\uc640 \uae30\uc5c5\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc810\uac80\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ub610 \ud544\uc694\ud558\uba74 \uc2e0\uc18d\ud788 \ub300\uc751\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc7ac\ud655\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 RBA\uac00 \uac15\ud55c \uc6b0\ub824 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \ubcf4\ub0b4\uba74\uc11c \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd80\ub2f4(\ud558\ub77d \uc555\ub825)\uc774 \ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 3.6%\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub454\ud654\ub410\ub358 \ud638\uc8fc\uc758 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc704\ud611\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 RBA\uac00 \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac(\u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u2019)\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560\uc9c0 \uace0\ubbfc\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5b4 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uad00\ub9ac) \uc6b4\uc6a9\uc744 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc640 \uce90\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc \uc704\ud5d8<\/h3>\n

\uc774\ub7f0 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc73c\ub85c AUD\/JPY \uc635\uc158\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300\uce58)\uc774 \ud604 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\uc640 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uc740 \uc5b4\ub290 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774\ub4e0 \ud070 \ud3ed\uc758 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4. 2022\ub144 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9(\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1)\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc900 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ub5a0\uc62c\ub824 \ubcf4\uba74, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740 \uae09\uaca9\ud558\uace0 \uc608\uce21\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ubc18\uba74 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uce21\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 GDP \ud638\uc870\uac00 \uc5d4\ud654\uc5d0 \ud070 \uc9c0\uc9c0(\uac15\uc138 \uc694\uc778)\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BoJ)\uc774 \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\uac8c \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uae34\ucd95(\ud1b5\ud654\uae34\ucd95\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc774\ub098 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ucd95\uc18c)\ud560 \uac83\uc778\uc9c0\uc5d0 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ud68c\uc758\uc801\uc774\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 2024\ub144 \ub9c8\uc774\ub108\uc2a4 \uae08\ub9ac(negative rates\u00b7\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub3c8\uc744 \ub9e1\uae30\uba74 \uc774\uc790\ub97c \ubc1b\ub294 \ub300\uc2e0 \ub0b4\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac)\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ub290\ub838\ub358 \uc810\uc744 \uae30\uc5b5\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. BoJ\uac00 \uc644\ud654\uc801 \uae30\uc870(accommodative stance\u00b7\uc800\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uc644\ud654 \uc815\ucc45 \uc720\uc9c0)\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\ub294 \ud55c, \uc5d4\ud654\ub294 \uce90\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc(carry trade\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub0ae\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\ub85c \ube4c\ub824 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798)\uc758 \ub300\ud45c\uc801 \u2018\uc870\ub2ec \ud1b5\ud654\u2019(funding currency\u00b7\ube4c\ub9ac\ub294 \ub370 \uc4f0\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654)\ub85c \ub0a8\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc778\uae30 \uc788\ub294 AUD\/JPY \uce90\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\ub294 \ucde8\uc57d\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac70\ub798\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc548\uc815(\ub0ae\uc740 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131)\uc744 \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba74 \ud1b5\uc0c1 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \uccad\uc0b0(\uc5b8\uc640\uc778\ub4dc\u00b7\uc313\uc544 \ub454 \uac70\ub798\ub97c \ub418\ub3cc\ub824 \uc815\ub9ac)\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud55c\ub2e4. 2020\ub144\uc758 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc624\ud504(risk-off\u00b7\uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \ud314\uace0 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294 \uc7a5\uc138) \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uccad\uc0b0\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \ubc14 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \ub9e4\uc218(\ub871) \ub178\ucd9c\uc744 \ud5e4\uc9c0(hedge\u00b7\uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4 \uac70\ub798)\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc\ub294 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uc811\uadfc\uc774 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uae30 \ud558\ubc29\uc744 \ubcf4\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 AUD\/JPY \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put option\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc190\uc2e4\uc740 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(premium\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\uae09\ud558\ub294 \ube44\uc6a9)\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uc5d4\ud654\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \ud638\uc8fc \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ub354 \ud06c\uac8c \ubd80\uac01\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uad00\uc810\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uc18d\ubcf4: RBA, \uc911\ub3d9\ubc1c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc1fc\ud06c\uac00 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc7ac\uc790\uadf9\u00b7\uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654 \uacbd\uace0\u2026AUD\/JPY 113.40\ub300\ub85c \ubc18\ub77d. \uc77c\ubcf8 GDP \ud638\uc870\ub3c4 \uc5d4 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uc81c\ud55c, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u2191\uc5d0 \uce90\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc \ucde8\uc57d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47010","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47010","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47010"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47010\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47010"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47010"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47010"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}