\uae08 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 14\uc77c \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \ucd08\ubc18 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 4,535\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9) \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0, \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac(\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac) \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uacb9\uce5c \uc601\ud5a5\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \uc774\ub780\uc5d0 \u201c\uc11c\ub450\ub974\ub77c\u201d\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud558\uba70 \ucd94\uac00 \uc870\uce58 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\ub2e4. \uc911\uad6d\uc774 \uad00\uc5ec\ud55c \ud611\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ud070 \ubb34\uc5ed \ud569\uc758(\uad00\uc138\u00b7\uc218\ucd9c\uc785 \ub4f1 \uad50\uc5ed \uc870\uac74\uc758 \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \ud0c0\uacb0)\ub098 \uc804\uc7c1 \uc885\ub8cc\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uc9c4\uc804\uc740 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub358 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ubcf4\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc774\ub780\uc5d0 \ud575 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8(\ud575\ubb34\uae30 \uc81c\uc870\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud575 \uac1c\ubc1c)\uc744 \ud3ec\uae30\ud558\uace0 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611(\uc911\ub3d9 \uc0b0\uc720\uad6d \uc6d0\uc720\uac00 \ub300\uac70 \ud1b5\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \ud574\uc0c1 \ud1b5\ub85c)\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac1c\ubc29\ud558\ub77c\uace0 \uc694\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780 \ub9e4\uccb4\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \uc2e4\uc9c8\uc801 \uc591\ubcf4\ub97c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ud574 \ud611\uc0c1\uc774 \uad50\ucc29\ub420 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch\u00b7\uc2dc\uce74\uace0\uc0c1\ud488\uac70\ub798\uc18c\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uc5f0\uc900 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ud655\ub960\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud55c \uc9c0\ud45c) \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uac8c \ub410\uace0, \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4. \uae08\uc740 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ubd88\uc548 \uc2dc \u2018\uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ub298\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\uc790\ub97c \uc8fc\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0\uc774\uc5b4\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc744\uc218\ub85d \ub9e4\ub825\ub3c4\uac00 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc138\uacc4\uae08\ud611\ud68c(WGC)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uae08\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \ubcf4\uc720 \uc8fc\uccb4\uc774\uba70 2022\ub144\uc5d0 \uc57d 1,136\ud1a4(\uc57d 700\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8)\uc744 \uc21c\ub9e4\uc785\ud588\ub2e4. \uae08 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \ud1b5\uc0c1 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\uc640 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \uac00\uaca9(\ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uacfc\ub294 \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784)\uacfc \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uace0, \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub97c \ub54c\ub294 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uae08\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub9e4\uaca8\uc9c0\uba70 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c(\uc804\uc7c1\u00b7\uc81c\uc7ac \ub4f1 \uc815\uce58\u00b7\uad70\uc0ac\uc801 \uc704\ud5d8), \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131, \uae08\ub9ac, \ud658\uc728 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc751\ud55c\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uba74 \uae08\uc5d0\ub294 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc774\uace0, \ucc28\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9(\ub300\ucd9c\u00b7\uae30\uc5c5 \uc870\ub2ec \ube44\uc6a9)\uc774 \uc624\ub974\uba74 \uae08\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uae08\uc774 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \uc704\ud5d8\uacfc \uae08\ub9ac \ubd88\uc548 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0 \ub07c\uc774\uba74\uc11c \ud575\uc2ec \uac70\ub798 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub294 \u2018\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ucd9c\ub801\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\u2019 \uc790\uccb4\ub77c\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\uac00 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780 \uad00\ub828 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 115\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc6b0\ub824\ub97c \uc790\uadf9\ud574 \uae08\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd80\uc815\uc801\uc774\ub2e4. \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \ub9e4\uc218\ub85c \uae08\uc774 \ubc18\ub4f1\ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uac00 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub85c \ub300\uc751\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud558\uba74 \ubc18\ub4f1\ubd84\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub418\ud314\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
2026\ub144 4\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uad6c\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \uc7ac\ud654\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ub300\ud45c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c) \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc218\uce58\ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 4.8% \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \ub454\ud654\uac00 \ub354\ub3a0\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58 \ud234\uc740 6\uc6d4 \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uacb0\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ud68c\uc758)\uc5d0\uc11c 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b70.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, 25bp=0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc744 75%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uae08 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 4,600\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc544\ub798\uc5d0 \ubb36\uc5b4\ub450\ub294 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uc545\uc7ac\ub85c \uc9c0\ubaa9\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uacfc \ubb34\uad00\ud558\uac8c \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc635\uc158(\ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac\u00b7\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac) \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. CBOE \uae08 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc9c0\uc218(GVZ\u00b7\uae08 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c \ud55c \ub2ec\uac04 20% \ub118\uac8c \uae09\ub4f1\ud574 \ud070 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub871 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(\uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305)\uc774\ub098 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(\uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\u00b7\ud48b\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305) \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780 \uad00\ub828 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \uc545\ud654\ub418\uac70\ub098 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc131\uba85\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uac15\uacbd\ud574\uc9c0\uba74 \uae08\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c(\uc881\uc740 \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc624\ub974\ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \uad6c\uac04)\uc744 \ubc97\uc5b4\ub0a0 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
1970\ub144\ub300 \ud6c4\ubc18\ucc98\ub7fc \uc720\uac00 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \uae08\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uc790\uae08 \uc720\uc785\uacfc \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uac15\ud55c \ud1b5\ud654\uae34\ucd95(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uacfc \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ucd95\uc18c) \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e0 \uc0c1\ud669\uacfc \ub2ee\uc558\ub2e4\ub294 \ubd84\uc11d\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70\uc5d0\ub294 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uac00 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae09\ub4f1\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \uacb0\uad6d \uc6b0\uc704\ub97c \uc810\ud574 \uae08 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud6a1\ubcf4\u00b7\uc870\uc815 \uad6d\uba74\uc73c\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5b4\uac00\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \ub9ce\uc558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc804\ub840\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \ub2ec\uac04 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uad00\uc804 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\uc784\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\uae08\uac12 4,535\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \ud6c4\ud1f4: \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5\u00b7\uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc774 \ubb3c\uac00 \ubd88\uc548 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uace0, FedWatch\ub294 6\uc6d4 25bp \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960 75% \ubc18\uc601. \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \ub9e4\uc218\ub3c4 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ub20c\ub824 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc7a5\uc138.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46870","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46870"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46870\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46870"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46870"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46870"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}