{"id":46812,"date":"2026-05-15T16:24:29","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T16:24:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-2026%eb%85%84%ea%b9%8c%ec%a7%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d6%ec%9b%94-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%9d%80-%ec%9c%a0\/"},"modified":"2026-05-15T16:24:29","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T16:24:29","slug":"td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-2026%eb%85%84%ea%b9%8c%ec%a7%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d6%ec%9b%94-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%9d%80-%ec%9c%a0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-2026%eb%85%84%ea%b9%8c%ec%a7%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d6%ec%9b%94-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%9d%80-%ec%9c%a0\/","title":{"rendered":"TD\uc99d\uad8c \u201c\uc5f0\uc900, 2026\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd\u20266\uc6d4 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc720\uac00\ubc1c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc5ec\ud30c\ub85c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc804\ud658\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 \ubbf8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc218\uc815\ud574 2026\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc5c6\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubd24\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ub2e4\uc74c \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815 \ud68c\uc758) \uc870\uce58\ub294 \uc778\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 \uadfc\uc6d0 CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uc2dd\ud488\ucc98\ub7fc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ube80 \ubb3c\uac00)\uc640 \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE(\uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ud56d\ubaa9\uc744 \ube80 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc120\ud638 \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\ud45c) \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \uc5f0\ucd08\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uac8c \ub9c8\ubb34\ub9ac\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc720\uac00\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd(\uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac\u00b7\ubd80\ud488 \uc870\ub2ec\ubd80\ud130 \uc0dd\uc0b0\u00b7\uc6b4\uc1a1\uae4c\uc9c0\uc758 \uacf5\uae09 \uacfc\uc815)\uc774 \uacc4\uc18d \uc555\ubc15\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \ub370 \ub530\ub978 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c, \uc774\ub780 \uad00\ub828 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc740 \uad50\ucc29 \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Market Repricing And Rate Cut Expectations<\/h3>\n

TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 6\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd(SEP\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 \uc790\ub8cc)\uc774 \ub354 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5)\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610 6\uc6d4 FOMC \uc131\uba85\uc5d0\uc11c \uc644\ud654 \ud3b8\ud5a5(\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4 \uc788\ub358 \uc2e0\ud638)\uc774 \uc81c\uac70\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0(\ud604 \uc218\uc900 \uc720\uc9c0)\ud558\uba74 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd80\uc815\uc801 \uc2dc\uac01\uc774 \uc57d\ud654\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 2026\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \uc774\ub780 \uad00\ub828 \uc704\ud5d8\uacfc \ub2e4\ub978 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uc131\ud5a5\uacfc\uc758 \ube44\uad50\ub97c \uadfc\uac70\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc77c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

2026\ub144 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c, \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \ub4f1 \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub418\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc0c1\ud488) \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc870\uc815\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \u2018\uc7ac\uac00\uaca9\ud654(repricing\u00b7\uc0c8 \uc815\ubcf4\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ud615\uc131\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815)\u2019\uac00 \uc9c4\ud589\ub410\uace0, CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ucd94\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub3c4\uad6c)\ub294 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 0%\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uba87 \ub2ec \uc804\uacfc \ub300\ube44\ub418\ub294 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ubcc0\ud654\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5, \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 12\uc6d4 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c(\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778 SOFR\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub41c \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ubcf4\uc720\ud558\ub294 \u2018\ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(\uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ub9e4\uc218 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158)\u2019\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ubc88 \ubcc0\ud654\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\uc778\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9)\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc774\ub2e4. 4\uc6d4 CPI\uc5d0\uc11c \uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 3.6%\ub85c \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. 2023\ub144\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubb3c\uac00 \ub454\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae34\ucd95\uc801(\ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud574 \uc218\uc694\ub97c \uc5b5\uc81c\ud558\ub294) \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac04 \ubc14 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

June Fomc And Volatility Implications<\/h3>\n

\ub2e4\uac00\uc624\ub294 6\uc6d4 FOMC\ub294 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\ub85c, \uc704\uc6d0\ud68c\uac00 \uc131\uba85\uc5d0\uc11c \uc644\ud654 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc744 \uacf5\uc2dd\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ucca0\ud68c\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc804\ud658\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ucd9c\ub801\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub300\ud45c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc778 VIX(\ubbf8 S&P500 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0b0\ucd9c\ud558\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 14 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub354 \uac15\uacbd\ud55c \ubb38\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc774\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc635\uc158(\ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0, \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \uc57d\uc138 \ubca0\ud305\uc740 \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc2e0\uc911\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY\u00b7\uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 106\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac15\ud55c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub97c \ud655\uc778\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub2e4\ub978 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\ub3c4 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5ec\ub825\uc740 \uc81c\ud55c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c(\uc77c\uc815 \ubc94\uc704 \ub0b4 \ub4f1\ub77d) \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub098 \ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc(\uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac15\ud560 \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \uc0ac\uace0 \uc57d\ud560 \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \ud30c\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc608\ucee8\ub300 \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ub610\ub294 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc720\uc9c0)\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ub780\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uc790\uadf9\ud558\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c, WTI(\uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud45c \uc720\uc885) \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 95\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc704\ub85c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\uace0 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc7ac\ud654\uc640 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ube44\uc6a9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc838 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc8fc\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uc811 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c\ub2e4. \uace0\uc720\uac00\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \ub54c \uc218\uc775\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\ub294 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \ud5e4\uc9c0(\uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubc18\ub300 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158) \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c2026\ub144 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 0\ud68c\u201d TD\uc99d\uad8c, \uc5f0\uc900 \uc804\ub9dd \uc804\uaca9 \uc218\uc815. 6\uc6d4 SEP\u00b7FOMC\ub294 \ub354 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801, \uc644\ud654 \ud3b8\ud5a5 \ucca0\ud68c \uc608\uc0c1. \uc778\ud50c\ub808\u00b7\uace0\uc720\uac00\u00b7\uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \uc555\ubc15 \uc18d \uae08\ub9ac \ubca0\ud305 \uc7ac\uac00\uaca9\ud654, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uacbd\uace0.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46812","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46812"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46812\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46812"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46812"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46812"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}