TD\uc99d\uad8c(TD Securities) \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8(\uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \ubd84\uc11d\uac00) \uc624\uc2a4\uce74\ub974 \ubb34\ub1e8\uc2a4\uac00 \uc774\ub044\ub294 \ud300\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589) \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc218\uc815\ud574 2026\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc5c6\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubd24\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1, \uace0\uc720\uac00, \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd(\uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac\u00b7\ubd80\ud488\u00b7\ubb3c\ub958 \uacf5\uae09 \uacbd\ub85c) \ucc28\uc9c8\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9) \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uba74\uc11c \ub514\uc2a4\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960 \ub454\ud654)\uc774 \ub290\ub824\uc9c4\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub2e4\ub9cc 2027\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558) \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac(\uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \uacfc\uc5f4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uac70\ub098 \uce68\uccb4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uade0\ud615 \uae08\ub9ac) 3%\ub97c \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uad6c\uc0c1\uc774\ub2e4. 2027\ub144 3\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 \ucd1d 75bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b70.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ub2e8\ud589\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc870\uac74\uc774 \ub354 \uae4c\ub2e4\ub85c\uc6cc\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub610 \uc62c\ud574\uc5d0\ub294 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5(\uace0\uc6a9) \uc608\uc0c1 \ubc16\uc758 \uc57d\ud654\ub098 \uae08\uc735\uc5ec\uac74(\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uc2e0\uc6a9\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\u00b7\uc8fc\uac00 \ub4f1 \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \ud658\uacbd)\uc774 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \uae34\ucd95\ub418\ub294 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \uc5c6\ub294 \ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub294 \uc5c6\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\ub2e4. 6\uc6d4 \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\uacb0\uc815\ud68c\uc758)\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45 \uc548\ub0b4(\uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4) \ubcc0\ud654 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub098\uc62c \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc9c0\uc810\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\ubaa9\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc\uac00 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc758\uc7a5\uc774 \ub418\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uac70\ub860\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(dot plot\u00b7\uc704\uc6d0\ubcc4 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc810\uc73c\ub85c \ud45c\uc2dc\ud55c \ud45c)\uc758 2026\ub144 \uc911\uc559\uac12(median)\uc774 \u2018\uc778\ud558 \uc5c6\uc74c\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubd80 \uc704\uc6d0\uc774 2027\ub144\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc804\ub9dd\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc131\uc7a5(\uacbd\uae30) \ud558\ubc29 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74 \uc778\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc870\uce58\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub354 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 2026\ub144\uc5d0 \uc804\ud600 \uc5c6\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ubc14\uafb8\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \uc774\ub97c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 2026\ub144 12\uc6d4 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c(\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778 SOFR\uc744 \uae30\ucd08\ub85c \ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488) \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac \uc57d 5.4% \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c, \ubd88\uacfc \uba87 \ub2ec \uc804 \ubc18\uc601\ub3fc \uc788\ub358 50bp \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc0ac\ub77c\uc84c\ub2e4. \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654(higher for longer)\u2019\uac00 \uac70\ub798\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub85c \uad73\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc0c1\ub2e8(\uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc27d\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc MOVE \uc9c0\uc218(\ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 115 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544, 2026\ub144 \ub9d0~2027\ub144 \ucd08 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \uc544\uc8fc \ub0ae\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00(out-of-the-money\u00b7\ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \ud55c\ucc38 \ubc97\uc5b4\ub09c) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ub9e4\ud30c(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc120\ud638)\uc801 \uae5c\uc9dd \ubcc0\uc218\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc635\uc158\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \ud655\ub960\uc744 15% \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4 \ubb34\uc2dc\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uc9c0\uc218 \uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \ub4f1) \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \ub300\uc751\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ubbfc\uac10\ud55c \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100\uc774 \ub300\uc0c1\uc774\ub2e4. \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc774\ubbf8 4% \uc870\uc815\uc744 \ubc1b\uc558\uace0, \ucd94\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ubcf4\ud638 \ubaa9\uc801\uc758 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ube44\uc911\uc744 \ub298\ub9ac\uace0, QQQ ETF(\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100 \ucd94\uc885 \uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc)\uc5d0\uc11c \ub0ae\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uc81c\ud55c\ud615 \uc804\ub7b5)\ub97c \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c \ub610\ub294 \ud558\ub77d \ud750\ub984\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc774 \uad50\ucc29 \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uba74\uc11c WTI(\uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc6d0\uc720) \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 95\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uc811 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \uc555\ub825 \uc9c0\uc218(Global Supply Chain Pressure Index\u00b7\uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ubcd1\ubaa9 \uc815\ub3c4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub3c4 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec 1\ub144 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucc98\uc74c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc8fc\ub098 \uc6d0\uc720 ETF\uc758 \uc0c1\ub2e8 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ubcf4\uc720\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ud5e4\uc9c0(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4 \uc218\ub2e8)\ub85c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc720\ud6a8\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u201c2026\ub144 \uc778\ud558 \uc5c6\ub2e4\u201d TD\uc99d\uad8c, \uace0\uc720\uac00\u00b7\uacf5\uae09\ub9dd\ubc1c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900 \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u2019 \uc804\ub9dd\u2026SOFR \uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\ub3c4+\ucd08\uc800\uac00 \ucf5c\ub85c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud5e4\uc9c0, \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100 \ubc29\uc5b4\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucf5c \uc720\uc9c0.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46747","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46747"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46747\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}