{"id":46745,"date":"2026-05-15T01:24:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T01:24:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%eb%af%b8%c2%b7%ec%a4%91-%ed%98%91%ec%83%81-%ec%9c%84%ec%95%88%ed%99%94%c2%b7%ea%b8%b0%ec%88%a0%ec%a3%bc%c2%b7%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5\/"},"modified":"2026-05-15T01:24:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T01:24:14","slug":"%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%eb%af%b8%c2%b7%ec%a4%91-%ed%98%91%ec%83%81-%ec%9c%84%ec%95%88%ed%99%94%c2%b7%ea%b8%b0%ec%88%a0%ec%a3%bc%c2%b7%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%eb%af%b8%c2%b7%ec%a4%91-%ed%98%91%ec%83%81-%ec%9c%84%ec%95%88%ed%99%94%c2%b7%ea%b8%b0%ec%88%a0%ec%a3%bc%c2%b7%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c \u201c\ubbf8\u00b7\uc911 \ud611\uc0c1, \uc704\uc548\ud654\u00b7\uae30\uc220\uc8fc\u00b7\uc720\uac00 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ubc18 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ucd09\ubc1c \uc694\uc778\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c(Rabobank) \uc804\ub7b5\uac00 \ub9c8\uc774\ud074 \uc5d0\ube0c\ub9ac(Michael Every)\ub294 \uc911\uad6d\uc744 \ud604\uc7ac \uc9c0\uc815\ud559(\uad6d\uac00 \uac04 \ud798\uc758 \uacbd\uc7c1)\uacfc \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735(\uad6d\uacbd\uc744 \ub118\ub294 \uc790\uae08\u00b7\uc2dc\uc7a5)\uc5d0\uc11c \ud575\uc2ec \ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc5b4\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \uae00\uc740 \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \ubca0\uc774\uc9d5 \ubc29\ubb38, \ubbf8\u00b7\uc911 \ud611\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c \ub098\uc62c \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc, \uc774\ub978\ubc14 \u2018\uadf8\ub79c\ub4dc \ubc14\uac90(Grand Bargain\u00b7\ud3ec\uad04\uc801 \ub300\ud0c0\ud611)\u2019 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub17c\uc7c1\uc744 \ub2e4\ub8ec\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\ub294 \u2018\uc5b5\ub9cc\uc7a5\uc790 CEO \uc218\ud589\ub2e8\u2019\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \uc2dc\uc9c4\ud551\uc744 \ub9cc\ub098\ub7ec \uac14\uace0, \uc804\uc6a9\uae30(\uc5d0\uc5b4\ud3ec\uc2a4\uc6d0)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc9c4\ud551\uc5d0\uac8c \u201c\u2018\uc911\uad6d\uc744 \uac1c\ubc29(open up)\u2019\ud574 \uc774 \ub6f0\uc5b4\ub09c \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc774 \uc5ed\ub7c9\uc744 \ubc1c\ud718\ud558\uac8c \ud574\ub2ec\ub77c\u201d\uace0 \uc694\uccad\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \uc37c\ub2e4. \uae30\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc218\uc0ac\ub97c \u2018\ub2c9\uc2a8\u2013\ub9c8\uc624 2.0(1970\ub144\ub300 \ubbf8\u00b7\uc911 \uad00\uacc4 \uc804\ud658\uc758 \uc7ac\ud604)\u2019\uc5d0 \ube44\uc720\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4, \ub9ce\uc740 \ubc18\uc751\uc774 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uac01\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c4\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub85c\ub294 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uacfc \u2018\uc9c0\uacbd\ud559(geoeconomics\u00b7\uacbd\uc81c\uc218\ub2e8\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \uad6d\uac00 \uacbd\uc7c1)\u2019 \uad6c\ub3c4\ub97c \uc7ac\ud3b8\ud558\ub294 \u2018\uadf8\ub79c\ub4dc \ubc14\uac90\u2019 \ub610\ub294 \uad00\uc138(\uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uae30\ub294 \uc138\uae08), \uae30\uc220, \ub300\ub9cc\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \ub354 \uc791\uc740 \ud569\uc758\uac00 \uac70\ub860\ub410\ub2e4. \ub610 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc7a5\ube44\uc5c5\uccb4 ASML\uc758 \ub300\uc911\uad6d \ud310\ub9e4\ub97c \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \ub9c9\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc744 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ub300\ud574 \ub124\ub35c\ub780\ub4dc\uac00 \ubc18\ub300\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ub0b4\uc6a9\ub3c4 \ud3ec\ud568\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub780\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ud574\uc120 \uc911\uad6d\uc774 \ud14c\ud5e4\ub780\uc744 \uc555\ubc15\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uacfc, \ub274\uc695\ud0c0\uc784\uc2a4(NYT)\uac00 \u201c\uc911\uad6d \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc774 \uc774\ub780\uc5d0 \ubb34\uae30 \ud310\ub9e4\ub97c \uacc4\ud68d \uc911\u201d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ud55c \uc810\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \uc804\ud588\ub2e4. \ub354 \ub113\uc740 \ub9e5\ub77d\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc720\ub85c\ud074\ub9ac\uc5b4(Euroclear\u00b7\uad6d\uc81c \uc99d\uad8c \uacb0\uc81c\uae30\uad00)\uac00 \uc911\uad6d \uc5ed\ub0b4(\uc628\uc1fc\uc5b4) \ucc44\uad8c \ud3b8\uc785\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uacfc, \uc704\uc548\ud654\uc758 \uad6d\uc81c \uc0ac\uc6a9 \ud655\ub300\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \ubca0\uc774\uc9d5\uc758 \ub178\ub825\uc774 \uc5b8\uae09\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubbf8\u00b7\uc911 \ud611\uc0c1\uc774 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc911\uc694\ud55c\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc54c\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 \u2018\uadf8\ub79c\ub4dc \ubc14\uac90\u2019\ubd80\ud130 \u2018\ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uaca9\ud654(Great Escalation\u00b7\uac08\ub4f1\uc758 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ud655\ub300)\u2019\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5f4\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4. CBOE \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc9c0\uc218(VIX\u00b7S&#038;P500 \uc635\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \uacf5\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc218)\uac00 18 \uc548\ud30e\uc758 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb34\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc5b4\ub290 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c\ub4e0 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \u2018\uad8c\ub9ac\u2019\uc778 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc7a1\uc544\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc774\ub2e4. \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ub108\ubb34 \ucee4 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \uc8fc\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9(\ub871)\uc774\ub098 \ud558\ub77d(\uc20f)\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uc704\uc548\ud654 \ud655\ub300 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \ud658\uc728 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uc5d0\uac8c \ud2b9\ud788 \uc911\uc694\ud558\ub2e4. \uc704\uc548\ud654\uc758 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c SWIFT \uacb0\uc81c \ube44\uc911(SWIFT\u00b7\uad6d\uc81c\uc740\ud589 \uac04 \uacb0\uc81c\ub9dd \uae30\uc900)\uc774 \ucd5c\uadfc 5.5%\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4, \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 4.5%\ub300\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \ub9cc\ud07c \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ud569\uc758\uac00 \ub098\uc624\ub4e0 \ubc18\uc751\uc774 \ud074 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc881\uc740 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c\uc744 \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \uc5ed\uc678 \uc704\uc548(USD\/CNH\u00b7\uc911\uad6d \ubcf8\ud1a0 \ubc16\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \uc704\uc548\ud654 \ud658\uc728)\uc5d0 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uacfc \ud48b\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5) \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uc790\ub294 \uc81c\uc548\ub3c4 \ub2f4\uacbc\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>2025\ub144 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \uad00\uc138 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uae09\ub4f1\ub77d\ud588\ub358 \uacbd\ud5d8\uc744 \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9ac\uba74 \ud604\uc7ac \uc8fc\uc2dd \ube44\uc911 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \uc2e0\uc911\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4. \ud611\uc0c1\uc740 \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uc811 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc8fc\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 S&#038;P500\uacfc \ud64d\ucf69 \ud56d\uc14d\uc9c0\uc218(Hang Seng) \uad00\ub828 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives\u00b7\uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub418\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc0c1\ud488)\uc774 \ud5e4\uc9c0(\uc704\ud5d8\ud68c\ud53c)\ub098 \ud22c\uae30(\ubc29\ud5a5\uc131 \ubca0\ud305)\uc5d0 \ud544\uc218 \ub3c4\uad6c\ub77c\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc774\ub2e4. \ud611\uc0c1 \uc77c\uc815\uc774 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58)\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uae30\uc220 \uc139\ud130, \ud2b9\ud788 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec \uc804\uc7a5\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc810\ub3c4 \uac15\uc870\ub41c\ub2e4. \ub124\ub35c\ub780\ub4dc\uac00 ASML \ud310\ub9e4\ub97c \ub450\uace0 \uacc4\uc18d \uc555\ubc15\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc220\uc8fc ETF(\uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc\u00b7\uc9c0\uc218\ub97c \ucd94\uc885\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798\uc18c \uc0c1\uc7a5 \ud380\ub4dc)\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ubd84\uc11d\uc774\ub2e4. \ud0c0\ud611 \uc2dc \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \ub7a0\ub9ac, \uaddc\uc81c \uac15\ud654 \uc2dc \uae09\ub77d\ucc98\ub7fc \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \u2018\uc591\uc790\ud0dd\uc77c(binary\u00b7\ub458 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub85c \ud06c\uac8c \uac08\ub9ac\ub294)\u2019\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b8 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4 \uc635\uc158\uc73c\ub85c \ub300\uc751\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8\u00b7\uc911 \u2018\uadf8\ub79c\ub4dc \ubc14\uac90\u2019\uc774\ub0d0 \u2018\ub300\uaca9\ud654\u2019\ub0d0, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uac08\ub9bc\uae38. \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubc29\uc911\u00b7\uad00\uc138\u00b7\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\u00b7\ub300\ub9cc \ubcc0\uc218\uc5d0 VIX \uace0\uacf5\ud589\uc9c4. \uc704\uc548\ud654 \uacb0\uc81c \ube44\uc911 \ud655\ub300 \uc18d \uc635\uc158\u00b7USD\/CNH \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46745"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46745\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}