\uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4\ud504\ub791(CHF)\uc740 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \uc720\ub7fd\uc7a5 \ucd08\ubc18 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ubcf4\ud569\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub2f9 0.7820\uc6d0 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4\ud504\ub791(USD\/CHF)\uc740 \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \uc911\uad6d \uc2dc\uc9c4\ud551 \uc8fc\uc11d\uacfc \ud68c\ub3d9\ud55c \ub4a4 \ub0b4\ub193\uc744 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc744 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uae30\ub2e4\ub9ac\uba74\uc11c \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc5c6\uc774 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc2dc \uc8fc\uc11d\uc740 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae30\uc5c5\uc778\ub4e4\uc758 \ubc29\uc911\uc744 \ud658\uc601\ud558\uba70 \ubb34\uc5ed \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uac1c\uc120\ub410\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \ub300\ub9cc \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \u201c\uc798\ubabb \ub2e4\ub8e8\uba74\u201d \ucda9\ub3cc\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4(\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\ub97c \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ubc14\uc2a4\ucf13\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b8 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 98.50 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uba70, \uc804\ub0a0 \uae30\ub85d\ud55c \uc8fc\uac04 \uace0\uc810 98.60\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd5c\uc18c 1\ucc28\ub840 \uc778\uc0c1\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uad00\uce21\uc774 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch(\uc2dc\uce74\uace0\uc0c1\ud488\uac70\ub798\uc18c\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ud655\ub960\ub85c \ucd94\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub3c4\uad6c)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \uc62c\ud574 \ucd5c\uc18c 1\ud68c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 32.2%\ub85c \uc9d1\uacc4\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud55c \ub2ec \uc804 \uac70\uc758 0%\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6e0\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ub192\uc544\uc9c4 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc62c\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc740 1%\uc600\uace0, \ub098\uba38\uc9c0\ub294 \ub3d9\uacb0\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uad6c\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c) \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c, 4\uc6d4 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\uc2dd\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ub4f1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ud56d\ubaa9\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uc804\uccb4 \ubb3c\uac00)\uc774 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.8%\ub85c 3\uc6d4\uc758 3.3%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \ube68\ub9ac \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \uc644\ud654\uc801 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\ub300\ub294 \uc57d\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4\ud504\ub791\uc740 \uc138\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub7c9\uc774 \ud070 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub2e4. 2011~2015\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \uc720\ub85c\ud654\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uace0\uc815(\ud398\uadf8\u00b7\ud658\uc728\uc744 \uc77c\uc815 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ubb36\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)\ub410\uc73c\ub098, \uc774 \uc870\uce58\uac00 \ud574\uc81c\ub418\uba74\uc11c \ud504\ub791 \uac00\uce58\uac00 20% \ub118\uac8c \uae09\ub4f1\ud55c \ubc14 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4\uad6d\ub9bd\uc740\ud589(SNB\u00b7\uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc740 \uc5f0 4\ud68c \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc5f4\uace0, \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc744 2% \uc544\ub798\ub85c \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4\ud504\ub791\uacfc \uc720\ub85c\ud654 \ud750\ub984\uc740 90% \uc774\uc0c1 \ub192\uc740 \ub3d9\ud589\uc131(\uc0c1\uad00\uad00\uacc4\u00b7\ub450 \uc790\uc0b0\uc774 \ud568\uaed8 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc54c\ub824\uc838 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc9c0\ub09c\ud574\uc5d0\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc9c0\uae08\uacfc \ud06c\uac8c \ub2ec\ub790\ub358 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4\ud504\ub791\uc774 0.7820 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131 \uc5c6\uc774 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 2026\ub144 5\uc6d4 14\uc77c \ud604\uc7ac \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4\ud504\ub791\uc740 0.9150 \ubd80\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c \ud06c\uac8c \uc62c\ub77c \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ud06c\uac8c \ub4a4\uc9d1\ud78c \uacb0\uacfc\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
2025\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d CPI\uac00 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.8%\ub85c \ub192\uac8c \ub098\uc624\uba74\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 32% \uc218\uc900\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubc18\uc601\ub410\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c CPI\ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 2.9%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ub410\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc CME FedWatch\ub294 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9b4 \ud655\ub960\uc744 65%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4 \uce21\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc720\ub85c\uc874(\uc720\ub85c\ud654\ub97c \uc4f0\ub294 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4) \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654 \uc601\ud5a5 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \ud504\ub791 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ub204\ub974\uae30 \uc704\ud574 SNB\uac00 \uba3c\uc800 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\ub2e4. SNB\ub294 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub300\ud45c \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac)\ub97c 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b70.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\ud558\ud574 1.25%\ub85c \ub0ae\ucdc4\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 1.4%\uc5d0 \uadf8\uce58\ub294 \ub4f1 \ubb3c\uac00 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub0ae\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uadfc\uac70\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. \uc644\ud654 \uae30\uc870\uc758 SNB\uc640, \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c4 \uc5f0\uc900 \uac04 \uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac \ud658\uc728\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\ub85c \ubd80\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc815\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488) \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub77c\uba74 \uae08\ub9ac \ucc28\uc774\uc5d0 \ubbfc\uac10\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd9c \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900 \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c4 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4\ud504\ub791\uc740 \uace0\uc6a9\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \ub4f1 \uc8fc\uc694 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c \ub54c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \ud3ed)\uc774 \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc635\uc158(\ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac) \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 SNB\uac00 \uc5f0\uc900\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4\ud504\ub791 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\ub0ae\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 \ucf5c \ub9e4\uc218+\ub192\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 \ucf5c \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc870\ud569) \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4\ud504\ub791, \uc5b4\ub514\ub85c \ud288\uae4c? \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubc1c\uc5b8 \ub300\uae30 \uc18d \ubcf4\ud569. \ubbf8 CPI\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900 \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uc640 SNB \uc120\uc81c \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ubcc0\uc218, \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c \ub54c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131. \uc635\uc158\uc740 \ucf5c\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46684","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46684","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46684"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46684\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46684"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46684"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46684"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}