\ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY\u00b7\uc8fc\uc694 6\uac1c \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c 98.50 \ubd80\uadfc\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uac00 \uc62c\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub35c \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uba74\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch(\uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \ub3c4\uad6c)\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ud604 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c \ud655\ub960\uc744 66.8%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \uc62c\ud574 \ucd5c\uc18c \ud55c \ucc28\ub840 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1(\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\ub294 \uac83) \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 32.2%\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \ubbf8\uad6d \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc624\ub974\uba74\uc11c \uc644\ud654\uc801 \uc815\ucc45(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\uac70\ub098 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub298\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub300\ub294 \uc57d\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4. 4\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uad6c\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\uacfc \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 3.8%\ub85c, 3\uc6d4(3.3%)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4\uc6d4 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(PPI\u00b7\uae30\uc5c5\uc774 \uc0c1\ud488\uc744 \ucd9c\ud558\ud560 \ub54c \ubc1b\ub294 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 6%\ub85c \uc9d1\uacc4\ub410\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58(4.9%)\uc640 \uc774\uc804\uce58(4.3%)\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uacfc \uc2dc\uc9c4\ud551 \uc911\uad6d \uad6d\uac00\uc8fc\uc11d\uc774 \ubca0\uc774\uc9d5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5ec\ub294 \ud68c\ub2f4 \uacb0\uacfc\ub3c4 \uc8fc\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780 \uc804\uc7c1, \ub300\ub9cc, \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI\u00b7\uc0ac\ub78c\ucc98\ub7fc \ud559\uc2b5\u00b7\ucd94\ub860\ud558\ub294 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud130 \uae30\uc220), \uad00\uc138(\uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uae30\ub294 \uc138\uae08), \ud76c\ud1a0\ub958(\ucca8\ub2e8 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \ud76c\uadc0 \uae08\uc18d) \ub4f1\uc774 \uc758\uc81c\ub85c \uac70\ub860\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ubbf8\uad6d 4\uc6d4 \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4(\uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc9c0\ucd9c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ub300\ud45c \uacbd\uae30\uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 \ud55c\uad6d\uc2dc\uac04 \uae30\uc900 12\uc2dc 30\ubd84(GMT 12:30)\uc5d0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 \uc608\uc815\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ud574\ub2f9 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c \uaf3d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc624\ub798 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294 \ud0dc\ub3c4)\uc77c \ub54c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4\uac00 98.50 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac15\uc138\uc600\ub358 \uc810\uc744 \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac DXY\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \ud658\uacbd \ubcc0\ud654\ub85c 104.75 \uc548\ud30e\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc815\ucc45 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub410\uc74c\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4\uc6d4 2025\ub144\uc758 \ub192\uc740 \ubb3c\uac00(CPI 3.8%, PPI 6%)\ub294 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub454\ud654\ub410\ub2e4. 4\uc6d4 2026\ub144 \ucd5c\uc2e0 CPI\ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 2.9%\ub85c, \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\ub97c \ubc11\ub3cc\uba70 \uc5f0\uc900 \ubaa9\ud45c\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc84c\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c4 \uac83\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \uc644\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294 \ud0dc\ub3c4)\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b4 \ud575\uc2ec \ubc30\uacbd\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 CME FedWatch\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0 \ub610\ub294 \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\uc774 \ubab0\ub838\uace0, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc740 0%\uc600\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 2026\ub144 9\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd5c\uc18c \ud55c \ucc28\ub840 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc778\ud558(\u2018\ucffc\ud130\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u2019 \uc778\ud558\u00b7\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc870\uc815) \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 75%\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \ubc14\ub00c\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc0c1\ud488) \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\ub7f0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d\uacfc \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd(\ub9e4\ub9e4 \ubc29\ud5a5\uacfc \uaddc\ubaa8\ub97c \uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. SOFR \uc120\ubb3c(\ubbf8\uad6d \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30 \ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778 SOFR\uc744 \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c) \uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucf5c(\uc624\ub97c \ub54c \uc774\uc775) \ub610\ub294 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\ucf5c\uc744 \uc0ac\uace0 \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc744 \ud30c\ub294 \uc870\ud569) \ub9e4\uc218\uac00 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uccab \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 \uaca8\ub0e5\ud55c \ubc29\ubc95\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ucd9c\ub801\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(\uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uacfc \ud48b\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uc774 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub0bc \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud658\uc728 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 DXY \ud558\ub77d \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud574 \ud48b(\ub0b4\ub9b4 \ub54c \uc774\uc775) \ub610\ub294 \ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\ud48b\uc744 \uc0ac\uace0 \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ud48b\uc744 \ud30c\ub294 \uc870\ud569) \ub9e4\uc218\uac00 \uc190\uc2e4 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ub294 \uc720\ub85c\ud654\ub098 \uc5d4\ud654 \uac15\uc138 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud574 EUR\/USD \ucf5c \uc635\uc158\uc774\ub098 USD\/JPY \ud48b \uc635\uc158\uc73c\ub85c \uc811\uadfc\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ub3c4 \ud604\uc7ac \uac70\uc2dc \ud750\ub984\uacfc \ub9de\ub294\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4 \uc218\uce58\ub97c \uba74\ubc00\ud788 \uc9c0\ucf1c\ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc218\uce58\uac00 \uc57d\ud558\uba74 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc644\ud654 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub354 \ube68\ub9ac \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4 98.50\uc120 \u2018\ubc84\ud2f0\uae30\u2019\u2026Fed \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\u00b7\uc778\uc0c1 \ubca0\ud305\uc5d0 \uac15\uc138 \uc9c0\uc18d. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ubb3c\uac00 \ub454\ud654\ub85c 2026\ub144 \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960 75% \uae09\ub4f1, \uc635\uc158\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd \ubd80\uc0c1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46666"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46666\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}