{"id":46642,"date":"2026-05-13T17:54:25","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T17:54:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc-%ec%98%88%ec%82%b0-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80%ec%99%84%ed%99%94%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9e%ac%ec%a0%95%ec%a0%81%ec%9e%90-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-%ec%95%85%ed%99%94r\/"},"modified":"2026-05-13T17:54:25","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T17:54:25","slug":"td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc-%ec%98%88%ec%82%b0-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80%ec%99%84%ed%99%94%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9e%ac%ec%a0%95%ec%a0%81%ec%9e%90-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-%ec%95%85%ed%99%94r","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc-%ec%98%88%ec%82%b0-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80%ec%99%84%ed%99%94%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9e%ac%ec%a0%95%ec%a0%81%ec%9e%90-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-%ec%95%85%ed%99%94r\/","title":{"rendered":"TD\uc99d\uad8c \u201c\ud638\uc8fc \uc608\uc0b0 \ud655\ub300(\uc644\ud654)\ub85c \uc7ac\uc815\uc801\uc790 \uc804\ub9dd \uc545\ud654\u2026RBA \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \uc704\ud5d8\u2191\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD\uc99d\uad8c(TD Securities) \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc804\ub7b5\ud300\uc740 \ud638\uc8fc\uc758 2026\/27 \ud68c\uacc4\uc5f0\ub3c4 \uc608\uc0b0\uc774 \uc18c\ud3ed \uacbd\uae30\ubd80\uc591\uc801\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \uc7ac\uc815 \uae30\uc870\uac00 \ub354 \uc644\ud654\ub410\uace0, \uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80(Treasury)\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBA) \uc804\ub9dd\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub099\uad00\uc801\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc774\uc720\uc5d0\uc11c\ub2e4. \uc608\uc0b0\uc548 \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \u2018\uae30\ucd08 \ud604\uae08\uc218\uc9c0(underlying cash balance: \uc77c\ud68c\uc131 \uc694\uc778 \ub4f1\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc2e4\uc9c8 \uc7ac\uc815\uc218\uc9c0)\u2019\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc804\ub9dd\uae30\uac04(forward estimates: \ud1b5\uc0c1 4\ub144\uac00\ub7c9\uc758 \uc911\uae30 \uc7ac\uc815\uc804\ub9dd \uad6c\uac04) \ub3d9\uc548 450\uc5b5 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec(A$) \uac1c\uc120\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uacf5\uc2dd(\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778) \uc7ac\uc815\uc801\uc790(headline deficit: \ud2b9\uc815 \ud56d\ubaa9\uc744 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \ubc1c\ud45c \uae30\uc900 \uc801\uc790) \ube44\uc728\uc740 2025\/26\ub144 GDP \ub300\ube44 1.6%\uc5d0\uc11c 2026\/27\ub144 2.1%\ub85c \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \u2018\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \ud604\uae08\uc801\uc790(headline cash deficit)\u2019\ub294 \uc774\uc804 \ucd94\uc815\uce58 \ub300\ube44 \uc57d 64\uc5b5 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec(A$) \uc815\ub3c4 \uae30\ucd08 \uae30\uc900(underlying)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc545\ud654\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Fiscal Outlook And Rba Implications<\/h3>\n

TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 \ubcf4\uc218\uc801\uc778 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9 \uac00\uc815\uc774 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc801\uc740 \uc801\uc790\ub97c \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uac8c \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ub610 \uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 RBA \uc804\ub9dd\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc2e4\uc81c \uacb0\uacfc\uc5d0 \ub354 \uac00\uae5d\ub2e4\uba74, RBA\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ub354 \uae34\ucd95\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uc838\uac08(\uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \uc62c\ub9b4) \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud638\uc8fc\uc758 1\ubd84\uae30 \uc784\uae08\uc740 \uc804\ubd84\uae30 \ub300\ube44 0.8% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4(q\/q: \uc804\ubd84\uae30 \ub300\ube44). \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1(cons: \ucee8\uc13c\uc11c\uc2a4, \ub2e4\uc218 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58 \ud3c9\uade0)\uacfc TD \uc804\ub9dd\uce58 \ubaa8\ub450 0.8%\uc600\uace0, \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44(y\/y: \uc804\ub144 \uac19\uc740 \uae30\uac04 \ub300\ube44) \uc784\uae08\uc740 3.3% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 RBA\uc758 5\uc6d4 \u2018\ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc131\uba85\uc11c(SoMP: Statement on Monetary Policy, RBA\uc758 \ubd84\uae30 \uacbd\uc81c\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c)\u2019 \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \uac19\uc544 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751\uc740 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uba54\ubaa8\ub294 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ube60\ub4ef\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669(\uad6c\uc778 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ub9ce\uace0 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc774 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\uacfc \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \uc544\uc9c1 \ud1b5\uc81c \ubc94\uc704 \uc548\uc5d0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. \ub610 RBA\uac00 \u201c\ub2e8\uae30 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300(\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ub354 \uc624\ub97c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1)\uac00 \ub192\uc544\uc9c0\uba74 \ud5a5\ud6c4 1\ub144 \uc784\uae08 \ud611\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uadfc\ub85c\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc2e4\uc9c8\uc784\uae08(real wages: \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \uad6c\ub9e4\ub825 \uae30\uc900 \uc784\uae08)\uc744 \uc9c0\ud0a4\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc784\uae08 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\u201d\ub294 \uacac\ud574\ub97c \uac16\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc0c8 \uc608\uc0b0\uc740 \uc18c\ud3ed \ud655\uc7a5\uc801(\uc815\ubd80 \uc9c0\ucd9c \ud655\ub300\u00b7\uc138\uc785 \uac10\uc18c \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uacbd\uae30 \ubd80\uc591 \uc131\uaca9)\uc73c\ub85c, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd94\ub824\ub294 RBA \ubaa9\ud45c\uc640\ub294 \ubc18\ub300 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4. 4\uc6d4 \uc6d4\uac04 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI: Consumer Price Index, \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uac00\uaca9\uc9c0\uc218)\uac00 3.8%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uac8c \ub098\uc624\uba74\uc11c, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc120\ud0dd\uc9c0\uac00 \uc881\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc740 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud568\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Aud Positioning And Options Strategy<\/h3>\n

\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \ub099\uad00\uc801 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc RBA\uc758 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uc2dc\uac01 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0 \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \ub69c\ub837\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774 \ud655\uc778\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2025\ub144 \uc911\ubc18 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc131\uae09\ud558\uac8c \ubc18\uc601\ud588\ub2e4\uac00, \ub048\uc9c8\uae34 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc73c\ub85c RBA\uac00 \uacb0\uad6d \ub354 \uac15\uacbd\ud55c \ub300\uc751\uc744 \ud560 \uc218\ubc16\uc5d0 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub358 \ub2f9\uc2dc \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9ac\uac8c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80\uc758 \ub354 \ubc1d\uc740 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ub9de\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub0a0 \uacbd\uc6b0, RBA\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uc218\uc900(\u2018\uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub428\u2019\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\ucc44\uad8c\uae08\ub9ac \ub4f1\uc774 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ub73b\ud568)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \uae34\ucd95\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ucd5c\uadfc \ubd84\uae30 \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960 0.8%\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ubd80\ud569\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uadf8\uac83\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ub2e4 \uc124\uba85\ud558\uae34 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4. \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ud0c0\uc774\ud2b8\ud558\uba70, 4\uc6d4 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\ub3c4 3.9%\uc758 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uadfc\ub85c\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc0dd\ud65c\ube44 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc0c1\uc1c4\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc784\uae08\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud560 \ud611\uc0c1\ub825\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\uba70, RBA\uac00 \uc8fc\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uc704\ud5d8 \uc694\uc778\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ub7f0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud558\uba74, \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \ub2ec \ub0b4 RBA\uc758 \u2018\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish: \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \ub4f1 \uae34\ucd95\uc5d0 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc778)\u2019 \uae5c\uc9dd \ub300\uc751 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30 AUD\/USD \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call option: \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money: \ud604\uc7ac \ud658\uc728 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\ub85c \ud589\uc0ac\ud558\uba74 \uc190\ud574\uac00 \ub098\ub294) \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put option: \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\ub3c4\ub294 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc704\ud5d8 \ub300\ube44 \uc218\uc775 \uad6c\uc870\uac00 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ud655\ub300\ub294 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility: \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \u2018\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ud074\uc9c0\u2019\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300)\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud560 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud574, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\uc218(\ub871 \ubcfc(long volatility): \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158) \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub610 RBA\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub35c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\uc778 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc744 \ub454 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc6b0\uc704\uc5d0 \uc124 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ubbf8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba74, \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28(interest rate differential: \ub450 \ub098\ub77c \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \ucc28\uc774) \ud655\ub300\uac00 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\uac8c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 AUD\/USD \ub9e4\uc218(\ub871) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \ud2b9\ud788 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\uc608\uc0b0\uc774 \ub354 \ud480\ub838\ub2e4\u201d\u2026TD\uc99d\uad8c, \ud638\uc8fc 26\/27 \uc608\uc0b0 \uc18c\ud3ed \ubd80\uc591 \ud3c9\uac00. \uc801\uc790 \ud655\ub300\u00b7\uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80 \ub099\uad00\ub860\uc5d0 RBA \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95\u00b7AUD \uac15\uc138 \uc5ec\uc9c0. \uc635\uc158\uc740 \ucf5c \ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub871 \uc81c\uc2dc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46642","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46642"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46642\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46642"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46642"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46642"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}