{"id":46580,"date":"2026-05-12T18:32:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T18:32:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/2025%eb%85%84-4%ec%9b%94-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%84%9c%ed%94%84%eb%9d%bc%ec%9d%b4%ec%a6%88%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ea%b0%95%ec%84%b8\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T18:32:22","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T18:32:22","slug":"2025%eb%85%84-4%ec%9b%94-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%84%9c%ed%94%84%eb%9d%bc%ec%9d%b4%ec%a6%88%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ea%b0%95%ec%84%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/2025%eb%85%84-4%ec%9b%94-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%84%9c%ed%94%84%eb%9d%bc%ec%9d%b4%ec%a6%88%ec%97%90-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ea%b0%95%ec%84%b8\/","title":{"rendered":"2025\ub144 4\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \u2018\uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988\u2019\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\u20262026\ub144 CPI \ub454\ud654\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558\ub85c \ucd08\uc810 \uc774\ub3d9"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8\uad6d \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uad6c\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \ubb3c\ud488\uacfc \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ubaa8\uc544 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c) \uae30\uc900 \uc5f0\uac04 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 4\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 3.8% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 3\uc6d4(3.3%)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58(3.7%)\ub3c4 \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\uacfc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uadfc\uc6d0(\ucf54\uc5b4) CPI(\uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ube7c \ubb3c\uac00\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 3\uc6d4 2.6%\uc5d0\uc11c 4\uc6d4 2.8%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc5ed\uc2dc \uc608\uc0c1\uce58(2.7%)\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Monthly Inflation Update<\/h3>\n<p>\uc6d4\uac04 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 4\uc6d4 CPI\uac00 0.6% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uc640 \uac19\uc558\uace0, \uc804\uc6d4(0.9%)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubbf8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc758 \ubb3c\uac00 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub294 2%\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc774\uc804 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \uad00\uce21\uc774 \ub098\uc654\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubc1c\ud45c \uc9c1\ud6c4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uac00\uce58\ub97c \uc8fc\uc694 6\uac1c \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b8 \uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 1\uc8fc\uc77c \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\uc778 98.34\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. \uc791\uc131 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5\uacfc \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 5\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\ubaa9\ub410\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ub192\uc73c\uba74 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \ucee4\uc9c4\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Trading Implications And Strategy<\/h3>\n<p>2025\ub144 4\uc6d4 CPI\uac00 3.8%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uac8c \ub098\uc624\uba70 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 \ud06c\uac8c \ub6f0\uc5c8\ub358 \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \u2018\ubb3c\uac00 \uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988(\uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uac15\ud55c \uc9c0\ud45c)\u2019 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc7ac\ube68\ub9ac \ubc18\uc601\ud588\uace0, \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\ub294 98.34\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc5d0\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc27d\uac8c \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub354 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \ub300\uc751\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ud574\uc11d\uc774 \uc6b0\uc138\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \ubc14\ub00c\uc5b4, 2026\ub144 4\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc728 \uae30\uc900 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 3.1%\ub85c \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uad00\uc2ec\ub3c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c \u2018\uccab \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac00\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(Fed funds futures\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488) \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 4\ubd84\uae30 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd5c\uc18c 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8(25bp) \uc778\ud558\uac00 1\ud68c \uc774\uc0c1 \uc788\uc744 \ud655\ub960\uc744 65%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601 \uc911\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub610\ub294 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc624\ub97c \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uace0, \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 SOFR(\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \uc775\uc77c\ubb3c \uc870\ub2ec\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc131\uaca9\uc744 \uc9c0\ub2cc \uae08\ub9ac) \uc5f0\uacc4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d(\uc989 \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub0b4\ub824\uac08\uc218\ub85d) \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \u2018\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c(\ud1b5\ud654\uc644\ud654\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc778 \uae30\uc870)\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ud55c\ub2e4\u2019\uace0 \ub354 \ud655\uc2e0\ud560 \ub54c \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ub178\ub9b0 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>2025\ub144\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub358 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\ub3c4 \uc57d\ud574\uc838, DXY\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac 101.5 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uad6d\uac00 \uac04 \uae08\ub9ac \ucc28(\uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28)\uac00 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uba74 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4, \uc635\uc158\uc73c\ub85c \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uc811\uadfc\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d \uc2dc \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc644\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \uad6d\uba74)\uc758 \uc2dc\uc791\uc744 \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \ud560 \ub54c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9bc) \uad00\ub9ac\ub3c4 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4. VIX(\ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 16 \ubd80\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c \ub0ae\uc740 \ud3b8\uc774\ub2e4. 2025\ub144\ucc98\ub7fc \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uac11\uc790\uae30 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\uba74 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud3c9\uc628\uc774 \uc27d\uac8c \uae68\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc2dc \uc774\uc775)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74, \uc608\uc0c1 \ubc16 \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c \ubd88\uc548\uc774 \ucee4\uc838 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uae09\ubcc0\ud560 \ub54c \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c, \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc740 \uc791\ub144 \ubb3c\uac00 \ubd88\uc548\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc778\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac WTI(\uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc6d0\uc720\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uae30\uc900 \uc720\uc885) \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 75\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc775\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc800(\uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc704\ud5d8 \ub178\ucd9c)\uac00 \uc788\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158\uc73c\ub85c \u2018\uce7c\ub77c(collar) \uc804\ub7b5\u2019\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud558\ub77d \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ub9c9\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uace0, \uadf8 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774\ub2e4. \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc774\uc775\uc740 \uc81c\ud55c\ub418\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud558\ub77d \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \ub370 \ubaa9\uc801\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8 CPI 4\uc6d4 3.8%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1 \uc0c1\ud68c, \ucf54\uc5b4\ub3c4 2.8%\ub85c \ubc18\ub4f1\ud558\uba70 \uae34\ucd95 \uacbd\uacc4 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\u00b7\uc720\uac00 \ubcc0\uc218 \uc18d, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 2026\ub144 \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ud658 \ubca0\ud305 \ud655\ub300.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46580\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}