\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\/\ub2ec\ub7ec(GBP\/USD)\ub294 \uae08\uc694\uc77c 1.3630\uc120\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub77c \ud558\ub8e8 \uae30\uc900 0.54% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c \uc774\ud6c4 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uba74\uc11c \ud658\uc728\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ubbf8\uad6d \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9(Nonfarm Payrolls\u00b7\ub18d\uc5c5\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uc6d4\uac04 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \uc99d\uac00)\uc740 4\uc6d4 11\ub9cc5\ucc9c \uba85 \uc99d\uac00\ud574 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 6\ub9cc2\ucc9c \uba85\uc744 \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4. 3\uc6d4 \uc218\uce58\ub294 17\ub9cc8\ucc9c \uba85\uc5d0\uc11c 18\ub9cc5\ucc9c \uba85\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub410\uace0, \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960(Unemployment Rate\u00b7\uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc778\uad6c \uc911 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\ub97c \ucc3e\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c \ube44\uc911)\uc740 4.3%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc5f0\uac04 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc2dc\uac04\ub2f9 \uc784\uae08(Average Hourly Earnings\u00b7\uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc740 3.6%\ub85c, \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 3.8%\ub97c \ubc11\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4. \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc644\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c \ubb3c\uac00 \ubd80\ub2f4(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825)\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud574\uc11d\uc774 \ub098\uc654\uace0, \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Federal Reserve\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc758 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ubbf8\uad6d\u2013\uc774\ub780 \ud611\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub099\uad00\ub860\uc73c\ub85c \uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638(risk appetite\u00b7\uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc0ac\ub824\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc2ec\ub9ac)\uac00 \uac1c\uc120\ub410\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uc778\uadfc \uc720\uc870\uc120 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc99\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubbf8\uad70 \uacf5\uc2b5 \ubcf4\ub3c4\uac00 \ub098\uc654\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4(US Dollar Index\u00b7\uc8fc\uc694 6\uac1c \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00\uce58)\ub294 97.90\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc601\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc9c0\ubc29\uc120\uac70 \ucd08\uae30 \uacb0\uacfc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud654\ub294 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub178\ub3d9\ub2f9(Labour)\uc740 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\ubc29\uc758\ud68c \uc7a5\uc545\ub825\uc744 \uc783\uc5c8\uace0, \ub9ac\ud3fcUK(Reform UK)\ub294 \uc138\ub97c \ub298\ub838\ub2e4. \ud0a4\uc5b4 \uc2a4\ud0c0\uba38(Keir Starmer) \ub178\ub3d9\ub2f9 \ub300\ud45c\ub294 \uc0ac\ud1f4\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc601\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BoE\u00b7Bank of England) \ubc1c\uc5b8\ub3c4 \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud654\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc564\ub4dc\ub8e8 \ubca0\uc77c\ub9ac(Andrew Bailey) \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac(\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac)\ub97c 3.75%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud55c \ub4a4, \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uacfc \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub974\uba74 \u201c\uac15\ub825\ud558\uac8c(forcefully)\u201d \ub300\uc751\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
2025\ub144 \uc774 \uc2dc\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\uac00 \ub454\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\uace0, \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud654\uac00 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \ud06c\uac8c \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub099\uad00\ub860\uc774 \ud655\uc0b0\ub418\uba70 GBP\/USD\ub294 1.36\uc744 \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\uace0, \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac 3.75%\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba70 \ubb3c\uac00 \ub300\uc751\uc744 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4. \ub450 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5 \ucc28\uc774(\uc815\ucc45 \ub514\ucee4\ud50c\ub9c1\u00b7policy divergence)\uac00 \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc \uac15\uc138 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558) \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uadf8\ub54c\ub9cc\ud07c \ub69c\ub837\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \ubbf8\uad6d \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \ubc84\ud2f0\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5(sticky\u00b7\uc27d\uac8c \ub454\ud654\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294)\uc73c\ub85c, \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7Consumer Price Index, \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uac00 \uad6c\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0 \ubcc0\ud654)\ub294 3.4% \ubd80\uadfc\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud574 \uc5f0\uc900 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c3\ub3c8\ub2e4. \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub454\ud654\ub418\uae30\ub294 \ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, 2026\ub144 \ucd08 \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00\uac00 \ud3c9\uade0 18\ub9cc \uba85 \uc548\ud30e\uc73c\ub85c \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c4 \uc218\uc900\uc740 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\uac00 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ubc18\uba74 \uc601\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294) \uae30\uc870\uac00 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud788 \ub204\uadf8\ub7ec\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc601\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 2025\ub144 \uc7a5\uae30 \uce68\uccb4(recession\u00b7\uacbd\uae30 \ud6c4\ud1f4)\ub97c \uac04\uc2e0\ud788 \ud53c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 0.4%\ub85c \uc815\uccb4\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4. \uc601\uad6d \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ube60\ub974\uac8c 2.1%\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uba74\uc11c, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ucd5c\uc18c \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ub2e8\ud589\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \u2018\uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\u2019\u00b7pricing in).<\/p>\n
\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 2025\ub144 \uace0\uc810 \ub300\ube44 GBP\/USD\uac00 \ub354 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc5fc\ub450\uc5d0 \ub454 \ub300\uc751\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud654\uac00 \ub204\ub9ac\ub358 \uae08\ub9ac \ub9e4\ub825(\uae08\ub9ac \uc6b0\uc704)\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c, \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ub97c \uc0ac\uc11c \ubcf4\uc720\ud558\ub294 \u2018\ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(long position\u00b7\uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158)\u2019\uc758 \ub9e4\ub825\uc740 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc120\ub3c4\ud658(forward contract\u00b7\ubbf8\ub798 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc815\ud55c \ud658\uc728\ub85c \ud658\uc804\uc744 \uc57d\uc18d\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc774 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294\uc9c0 \ud655\uc778\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ub97c \ub4e4\uace0 \uc788\uc744 \ub54c \uc5bb\ub294 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\ucd94\uac00 \uc774\uc775)\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uace0 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\/\ub2ec\ub7ec 1.3630 \ub3cc\ud30c\u2026\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub838\ub2e4. \u7f8e \uace0\uc6a9\uc740 \uacac\uc870\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc784\uae08 \ub454\ud654\ub85c \uc5f0\uc900 \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \ud655\ub300. BoE\ub294 3.75% \ub3d9\uacb0\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \ub300\uc751 \uac15\uc870, \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc601\uad6d \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ubd80\ub2f4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46511"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46511\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}