{"id":46494,"date":"2026-05-08T16:24:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T16:24:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-4%ec%9b%94-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-cpi-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%84%b8-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5%ec%9d%80-fed-%ea%b3%a0%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac\/"},"modified":"2026-05-08T16:24:22","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T16:24:22","slug":"td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-4%ec%9b%94-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-cpi-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%84%b8-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5%ec%9d%80-fed-%ea%b3%a0%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-4%ec%9b%94-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-cpi-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%84%b8-%ed%99%95%eb%8c%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5%ec%9d%80-fed-%ea%b3%a0%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac\/","title":{"rendered":"TD\uc99d\uad8c, 4\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d CPI \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138 \ud655\ub300 \uc804\ub9dd\u2026\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 Fed \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u2019 \ub300\ube44"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 4\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI)\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uadfc\uc6d0 CPI(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00)\ub294 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0.38%, \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 2.8%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 CPI(\uc804\uccb4 \ubb3c\uac00)\ub294 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0.56%, \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.7%\ub85c \ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \uc8fc\uac70\ube44(\uc784\ub300\ub8cc\u00b7\uc8fc\uac70 \uad00\ub828 \ube44\uc6a9)\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc624\ub974\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4. 10\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 \uc815\ubd80 \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4(\uc5f0\ubc29\uc815\ubd80 \uae30\ub2a5 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc911\ub2e8) \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc8fc\uac70\ube44\uac00 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ud6c4 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4. \ud56d\uacf5\ub8cc\ub3c4 \uc624\ub97c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc720\uac00(\uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9)\uac00 \uc62c\ub77c \ud56d\uacf5\uc0ac \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \ub298\uc5b4\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Key Drivers Behind The Forecast<\/h3>\n

\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 CPI\ub294 \ud718\ubc1c\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc57d 5% \uc624\ub974\uba74\uc11c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488 \ubb3c\uac00\ub3c4 3\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ubcf4\ud569\uc774\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc 4\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc624\ub97c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 3.7%\ub85c 0.4%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ub192\uc544\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. 3\ub144 \ub9cc\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4. \uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 2\ubd84\uae30(Q2)\uc5d0 2.9% \uc548\ud30e\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc624\ub978 \ub4a4, \uc5f0\ub9d0\ub85c \uac08\uc218\ub85d \uc11c\uc11c\ud788 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uacc4\uc808 \uc870\uc815 \uc5c6\uc774 \uc0b0\ucd9c\ud55c(non-seasonally adjusted\u00b7\uacc4\uc808\uc801 \uc694\uc778\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740) CPI \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub294 332.714\ub85c, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uace0\uc815\uce58(market fixing\u00b7\ud2b9\uc815 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ucc38\uace0\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uac12) 332.780\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ub410\ub2e4. \ud574\ub2f9 \uae30\uc0ac \uc791\uc131\uc5d0\ub294 AI \ub3c4\uad6c\uac00 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub410\uace0 \ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790\uac00 \uac80\ud1a0\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Market Positioning And Risk Considerations<\/h3>\n

\uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 4\uc6d4 2026\ub144 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \ub2e4\ub974\ub2e4. \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \uc644\ud654\ub3fc \ucd5c\uadfc \uc218\uce58\uac00 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.4%\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uc73c\uba70, \ubb3c\uac00 \ub454\ud654(\ub514\uc2a4\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\ub294 \ud750\ub984)\ub294 \uae30\ub300\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub290\ub9ac\uace0 \uc27d\uac8c \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4. \uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 3.6%\ub85c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub048\uc801\ud55c(sticky\u00b7\uc798 \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294) \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, 2025\ub144\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub358 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uc740 \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \uc7a6\uc544\ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub2f9\uc2dc \uc6b0\ub824\ud588\ub358 \uc720\uac00 \ucda9\uaca9\uc740 \uac19\uc740 \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c\ub294 \uc804\uac1c\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uace0, \uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc6d0\uc720(WTI\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ub300\ud45c \uae30\uc900) \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 80\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc544\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \uc548\uc815\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc791\ub144 \uc774\ub9d8\ub54c \ud718\ubc1c\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc6d4\uac04 5% \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\ub358 \uac83\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud558\uba74 \uc6b4\uc1a1\ube44 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ub35c\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc810\uc740 \uc774\ubc88 CPI \ubc1c\ud45c\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc694\uc778\uc744 \ub2e4\ub974\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc870\uc2ec\uc2a4\ub7fd\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc774 4% \uc544\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5ec\ub984\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0(\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0)\uc744 \ub192\uc740 \ud655\ub960\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488)\uc73c\ub85c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc7a1\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158(\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \uc775\uc77c \uae08\ub9ac SOFR\uc744 \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \uc120\ubb3c\uc758 \uc635\uc158)\uc740 \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654(higher-for-longer\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb34\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)\u2019\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc4f0\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub354 \ub2a6\ucdb0\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0 \uc720\uc758\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc9c0\uc218(VIX\u00b7S&P500 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd88\uc548 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 13 \uc548\ud30e\uc758 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub7ec \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uacbd\uacc4\uac00 \ub290\uc2a8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba70, \ub2e4\uc74c \ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc804 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \ub0ae\uc740 \ube44\uc6a9\uc73c\ub85c \ubc29\uc5b4(\ud5e4\uc9c0\u00b7\uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ubcc0\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uac70\ub798)\ub97c \ub9c8\ub828\ud560 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4. VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc2dc \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uc635\uc158)\uc774\ub098 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc5f0\ub3d9 \uc0c1\ud488\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \ub300\uc548\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ubbfc\uac10\ud55c \uc5c5\uc885\uc740 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish\u00b7\ud1b5\ud654 \uae34\ucd95\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc778) \ubcc0\uc218\uc5d0 \ucde8\uc57d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\u00b7\ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0\ucc98\ub7fc \uae08\ub9ac \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ud070 \uc139\ud130\ub97c \ucd94\uc885\ud558\ub294 ETF\uc5d0 \ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ube44\uc6a9\uacfc \uc190\uc775\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uba74, \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc815\ud574\ub450\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub6f4\ub2e4\u201d \uacbd\uace0\ub4f1. TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 4\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d CPI \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc804\ub9dd: \uadfc\uc6d0 0.38%\u00b72.8%, \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 0.56%\u00b73.7%. \uc8fc\uac70\ube44\u00b7\ud56d\uacf5\ub8cc\u00b7\ud718\ubc1c\uc720\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec, \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac\ub3d9\uacb0 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654 \ubca0\ud305 \ubd80\uac01.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46494"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46494\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}