\ubbf8\uad6d 4\uc6d4 \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9(\ub18d\uc5c5\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uc2e0\uaddc \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac) \uc99d\uac00\ud3ed\uc740 11\ub9cc5,000\uba85\uc73c\ub85c, 3\uc6d4 18\ub9cc5,000\uba85(\uae30\uc874 17\ub9cc8,000\uba85\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc815) \uc774\ud6c4 \ub454\ud654\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58 6\ub9cc2,000\uba85\uc740 \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 4.3%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub410\ub2e4. \ub178\ub3d9\ucc38\uc5ec\uc728(\uc77c\ud560 \uc758\uc0ac\uac00 \uc788\ub294 \uc778\uad6c\uac00 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ucc38\uc5ec\ud558\ub294 \ube44\uc728)\uc740 61.9%\uc5d0\uc11c 61.8%\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \ud3c9\uade0 \uc2dc\uac04\ub2f9 \uc784\uae08(\uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.4%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.6%\ub85c \uc62c\ub790\uc73c\ub098, \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 3.8%\uc5d0\ub294 \ubabb \ubbf8\ucce4\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ubbf8 \ub178\ub3d9\ud1b5\uacc4\uad6d(BLS, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uace0\uc6a9 \ud1b5\uacc4\ub97c \ubc1c\ud45c\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uad00)\uc740 2\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00\ud3ed\uc744 2\ub9cc3,000\uba85 \ub0ae\ucdb0 -15\ub9cc6,000\uba85\uc73c\ub85c, 3\uc6d4\uc740 7,000\uba85 \ub192\uc5ec +18\ub9cc5,000\uba85\uc73c\ub85c \uac01\uac01 \uc218\uc815\ud588\ub2e4. 2~3\uc6d4 \ud569\uc0b0\uce58\ub294 \uae30\uc874 \ubc1c\ud45c\ubcf4\ub2e4 1\ub9cc6,000\uba85 \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc9c0\uc218(\uc8fc\uc694 6\uac1c \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 \uae30\uc0ac \uc791\uc131 \uc2dc\uc810 \uae30\uc900 97.88\ub85c 0.4% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \ubc1c\ud45c \uc804 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uace0\uc6a9 6\ub9cc2,000\uba85 \uc99d\uac00\uc640 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960 4.3%\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uace0, \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 3.5%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.8%\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uac08 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ucd5c\uadfc \uad00\ub828 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c\ub294 ADP \ubbfc\uac04\uace0\uc6a9(\ubbfc\uac04 \uae09\uc5ec \ucc98\ub9ac \uc5c5\uccb4 ADP\uac00 \ucd94\uc815 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud558\ub294 \ubbfc\uac04 \ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9) 4\uc6d4 +10\ub9cc9,000\uba85(3\uc6d4 +6\ub9cc1,000\uba85, \uae30\uc874 6\ub9cc2,000\uba85\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc815), ISM \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc5c5 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\uc218(\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc5c5 \uace0\uc6a9 \ud655\uc0b0 \uc815\ub3c4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc124\ubb38\uc9c0\ud45c) 4\uc6d4 48(3\uc6d4 45.2)\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch, \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc608\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \ub3c4\uad6c)\ub294 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 3.5%~3.75%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc57d 70%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8(bp, \uae08\ub9ac 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ub2e8\uc704) \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc740 13%, 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \uc57d 17%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
2025\ub144 4\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00\uac00 11\ub9cc5,000\uba85\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751\uc774 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \uc9c0\ud45c \ud558\ub098\ub85c \uacb0\uc815\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba70, \uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638(\ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294 \ubd84\uc704\uae30) \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ubc18\uc801 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc5d0 \uc88c\uc6b0\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \ud638\uc7ac\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc624\ub974\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774 \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc624\ub298(2026\ub144 5\uc6d4 8\uc77c) \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \ub2e4\ub974\uba70, \ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc5d0\ub294 \ub354 \uae4c\ub2e4\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud658\uacbd\uc774\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uc2e0 2026\ub144 4\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2e0\uaddc \uace0\uc6a9\uc740 9\ub9cc5,000\uba85\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \uc57d\ud588\uace0, \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 4.6%\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uc130\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2025\ub144 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \uae30\uac04 4.3% \uc548\ud30e\uc73c\ub85c \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc774\ub358 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0\uc11c \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uc545\ud654\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \ub2f9\uc2dc 3.6%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub454\ud654\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub354 \ud070 \ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uadfc\uc6d0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00)\uc774 \uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI, \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uac00 \uad6c\uc785\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uce21\uc815) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 3.1%\ub85c \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub800\ub2e4. \uace0\uc6a9\uc740 \ub454\ud654\ud558\uace0 \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 \ub192\uc740 \uc870\ud569\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc744 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\uc81c 9\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 60%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc791\ub144\uc758 \u2018\ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \uc624\ub798\u2019 \uae30\uc870\uc640 \ub300\ube44\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \ud30c\uc0dd\ub418\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488, \uc608: \uc635\uc158\u00b7\uc120\ubb3c) \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub354 \ud06c\ub2e4. \uace0\uc6a9\uacfc \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9ac\uba74\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud574\uc84c\uace0, \uae08\ub9ac \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c \ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 EUR\/USD \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle, \uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\u00b7\ud48b \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305)\uc774\ub098 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(strangle, \uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\u00b7\ud48b \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305)\ucc98\ub7fc \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ub9cc\ud07c VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc9c0\uc218 VIX\uac00 \uc624\ub97c \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uc635\uc158)\ub3c4 \uad00\uc2ec \ub300\uc0c1\uc774\ub2e4. VIX\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac 16 \uc548\ud30e\uc758 \uc911\uac04 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \uc608\uc0c1 \ubc16 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uae09\ub4f1\ud560 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. 2024\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc8fc\uc694 CPI \ubc1c\ud45c \ub54c\ucc98\ub7fc \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \uc7ac\ud604\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc\uac04\uc758 \uae09\ub4f1\ub77d\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ub178\ub9b4 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\uace0\uc6a9 \ub454\ud654+\ubb3c\uac00 \uace0\ucc29 \u2018\uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\u2019 \uacbd\uace0\ub4f1. 4\uc6d4 NFP 11.5\ub9cc\u00b7\uc2e4\uc5c5 4.3%\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138. 2026\ub144\uc5d4 \uc2e4\uc5c5 4.6%\ub85c \uc545\ud654. \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac\uacbd\ub85c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\u2026\uc635\uc158\uc740 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ubca0\ud305 \uc720\ub9ac.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46493","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46493"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46493\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46493"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46493"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46493"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}