BNY\uc758 \uc81c\ud504 \uc720\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8 \uc678\ud658(FX\u00b7\ud1b5\ud654)\uacfc \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc774 \ud558\ub098\uc758 \u201c\ud1a0\ud138\ub9ac\ud134(total return\u00b7\ud658\ucc28\uc190\uc775\uacfc \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ud569\uce5c \ucd1d\uc218\uc775)\u201d \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc73c\ub85c \ubb36\uc5ec \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. iFlow \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8 \ud1b5\ud654\ub294 \ubaa8\ub450 \uc21c(\ub137) \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \u2018\uacfc\ub3c4 \ubcf4\uc720(net overheld\u00b7\ud22c\uc790\uc790 \ubcf4\uc720\uac00 \ub108\ubb34 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\u2019\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uadf8\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc758 \uad6d\ucc44(sovereign bond\u00b7\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ubc1c\ud589\ud55c \ucc44\uad8c) \uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uacfc\ub3c4 \ubcf4\uc720 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc600\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc774\ub7f0 \ucc44\uad8c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc(\ub9ac\ubc84\uc124\u00b7\ucd95\uc18c \ub610\ub294 \uccad\uc0b0)\uc774 \uc2dc\uc791\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uad6d\uac00\ubcc4\ub85c \uc18d\ub3c4\ub294 \uace0\ub974\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uba55\uc2dc\ucf54\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uba74\uc11c FX \ud5e4\uc9d5(hedging\u00b7\ud658\uc728 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4 \uac70\ub798) \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ub298\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uadf8\ub294 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \ubc14\ub2c9\uc2dc\ucf54(Banxico\u00b7\uba55\uc2dc\ucf54 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc758 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b70.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, 25bp=0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1\uc774\uba70, \uba55\uc2dc\ucf54 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc694\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uacac\uace0\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub610 \ubc14\ub2c9\uc2dc\ucf54\uac00 \uacbd\uae30\ubd80\uc591\uacfc \uc131\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub354 \ube44\uc911\uc744 \ub450\ub294 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\uc2dd\ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc544\uc6b8\ub7ec \uc2e4\uc9c8\uae08\ub9ac \ubc84\ud37c(real rate buffer\u00b7\uba85\ubaa9\uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0\uc11c \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ube80 \u2018\uc2e4\uc9c8\uae08\ub9ac\u2019\uc758 \uc5ec\uc720 \ud3ed)\uac00 \uc904\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc2e4\uc9c8\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ud50c\ub7ec\uc2a4(positive\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\uba74 100bp(1%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)\uc758 \uc5ec\uc720\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc720\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\ubc1c \uad6d\uac00\ubcc4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \u2018\ub35c \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c(less dovish\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ub35c \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc778, \uc989 \ub354 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\uc778)\u2019 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub354 \ube68\ub9ac \uc8fc\ubcc0\uad6d\uc5d0 \uc804\uc774(spillover\u00b7\ud30c\uae09)\ub418\ub294 \uc810, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubb34\uc5ed \ud611\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \ubb38\uc81c\uc640 \uc5f0\uacb0\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \uacc4\uc18d \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\uba74 FX \ud5e4\uc9d5\uc740 \ub354 \ub298 \uc218 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc7ac\uc815 \ubd80\uc591(fiscal impulse\u00b7\uc815\ubd80\uc9c0\ucd9c \ud655\ub300 \ub4f1 \uacbd\uae30\ubd80\uc591 \ud6a8\uacfc)\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc778 \ub9cc\ud07c \ucc44\uad8c(\uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac \uc790\uc0b0\u00b7fixed income) \ucabd\uc740 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uacac\uc870\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uadf8\ub294 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8 \ud1b5\ud654\uc640 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc774 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \ud558\ub098\uc758 \u2018\ubd90\ube44\ub294 \uac70\ub798(crowded trade\u00b7\ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ud55c\ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \ubab0\ub9b0 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158)\u2019\uac00 \ub410\uace0, \uc9c0\uc5ed \ub0b4 \uac70\uc758 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ud1b5\ud654\uac00 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uacfc\ub3c4 \ubcf4\uc720 \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub77c\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. 2025\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0\uc758 \uac15\ud55c \uc131\uacfc \uc774\ud6c4, \uc774\ub7f0 \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(long position\u00b7\uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud55c \ubcf4\uc720)\uc774 \ud480\ub9ac\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc77c\uc5b4\ub098\uc9c0\ub294 \uc54a\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8\uc740 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ud55c\uaebc\ubc88\uc5d0 \ucd9c\uad6c\ub85c \ubab0\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uba55\uc2dc\ucf54\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc900\ube44\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \ubc14\ub2c9\uc2dc\ucf54 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c 25bp \uc778\ud558\ub85c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 10.75%\uac00 \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc6b0\uc138\ud558\ub2e4. 4\uc6d4 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 4.5%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ub41c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc744 \ub178\ub9b0 \uc815\ucc45 \uc804\ud658\uc774 \uc9c4\ud589\ub418\uba74\uc11c, \ub354 \uc57d\ud55c \ud398\uc18c\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uac70\ub798\uac00 \ub298\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud574\uc678 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc758 \uba55\uc2dc\ucf54 \uad6d\ucc44 \ubcf4\uc720\ub294 \uc57d 750\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uacac\uc870\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uba55\uc2dc\ucf54 \ucc44\uad8c\uc740 \uc120\ud638\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud398\uc18c \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc740 \uc6b0\ub824\ud558\ub294 \u2018\uc5c7\uac08\ub9bc\u2019\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c\ub2e4. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5c8\ub358 \ub192\uc740 \uc2e4\uc9c8\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub0b4\uc218 \uacbd\uae30\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \uc5b4\ub290 \uc815\ub3c4 \uc6a9\uc778\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivative\u00b7\uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488) \ud22c\uc790\uc790 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uba55\uc2dc\ucf54 \ud398\uc18c \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0 \ube44\uc911\uc744 \ub298\ub9b4 \uc2dc\uc810\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uba55\uc2dc\ucf54\ud398\uc18c(USD\/MXN) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call option\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \u2018\uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac\u2019)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uac70\ub098, \uc120\ub3c4\uacc4\uc57d(forward contract\u00b7\ubbf8\ub798 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \ubcf4\uc720 \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \ud658\uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ubc29\uc5b4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\ub358 \u2018\uc288\ud37c \ud398\uc18c(super peso\u00b7\uac15\uc138\uac00 \ub450\ub4dc\ub7ec\uc84c\ub358 \ud398\uc18c \ud750\ub984)\u2019\ub294 \ud798\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uae34\ubc15\ud568\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\ubc1c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 2026\ub144\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ud55c \ubc88\ub9cc \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc838 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc900\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubb34\uc5ed \ud611\uc0c1\uae4c\uc9c0 \uacb9\uce58\uba74\uc11c \ud398\uc18c\uc5d0 \ubd88\ub9ac\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \uc870\uc131\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\ub7f0 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc740 \uc635\uc158 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c\ub2e4. 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \u2018\uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\ud3ed\u2019)\uc740 \uc5f0\ucd08 10%\uc5d0\uc11c 12.5%\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uac00 \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\uc758 \uac70\ub798\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc778 \ucc44\uad8c \uc218\uc775\ub960(\uc218\uc775\ub960\u00b7yield)\uacfc \ud1b5\ud654 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ubd84\ub9ac\ud574 \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8 \ud1b5\ud654\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \u2018\ubd90\ube44\ub294 \uac70\ub798\u2019 \uacbd\uace0\ub4f1. iFlow\uc0c1 \ud1b5\ud654 \uacfc\ub3c4\ubcf4\uc720 \uc9c0\uc18d, \uad6d\ucc44\ub294 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc \uc9c4\ud589. \uba55\uc2dc\ucf54\ub294 25bp \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \uc18d FX \ud5e4\uc9d5 \uc218\uc694\u2191, \u7f8e\ubc1c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46349","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46349","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46349"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46349\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46349"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46349"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46349"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}