{"id":46298,"date":"2026-05-06T10:54:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T10:54:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%b6%a9%ea%b2%a9-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94-%ec%86%8d-rba-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-4-35%eb%a1%9c-%ec%a0%95%ec%a0%90%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-2026%eb%85%84-%eb%b3%b5\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T10:54:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T10:54:15","slug":"%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%b6%a9%ea%b2%a9-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94-%ec%86%8d-rba-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-4-35%eb%a1%9c-%ec%a0%95%ec%a0%90%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-2026%eb%85%84-%eb%b3%b5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%b6%a9%ea%b2%a9-%ec%99%84%ed%99%94-%ec%86%8d-rba-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-4-35%eb%a1%9c-%ec%a0%95%ec%a0%90%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-2026%eb%85%84-%eb%b3%b5\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc720\uac00 \ucda9\uaca9 \uc644\ud654 \uc18d RBA \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac 4.35%\ub85c \uc815\uc810\u2026\uc2dc\uc7a5, 2026\ub144 \ubcf5\uc218 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ubc18\uc601"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c(Rabobank) \uc218\uc11d \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc804\ub7b5\uac00 \ubca4\uc800\ubbfc \ud53d\ud134\uc740 \ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBA)\uc774 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(\ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7cash rate: \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc2dc\uc911\uc740\ud589\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac)\ub97c 25bp(bp\u00b7\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8: 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \ub610 \uc62c\ub824 4.35%\ub85c \uc778\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\uc640 \uc6b0\ud06c\ub77c\uc774\ub098 \uc804\uc7c1\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9(\uacf5\uae09 \ucc28\uc9c8\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1) \uc774\ud6c4 \uc774\uc804 \uae34\ucd95 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub358 \uace0\uc810\uacfc \uac19\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubbf8\uc178 \ubd88\ub7ed RBA \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \u201c\ub2e4\uc18c \uae34\ucd95\uc801\u201d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \ud638\uc8fc \uad6d\ubbfc\uc758 \uc2e4\uc9c8 \uad6c\ub9e4\ub825(\uc18c\ub4dd\uc73c\ub85c \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ubb3c\uac74\uc758 \uc591)\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4 \ub354 \uac00\ub09c\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Rba Assumptions And War Impacts<\/h3>\n<p>\ubd88\ub7ed \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 \uc774\ub780 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uc131\uc7a5\uacfc \ubb3c\uac00\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 RBA\uac00 \uc7a0\uc2dc \uc9c0\ucf1c\ubcfc \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. RBA\uc758 \uc218\uc815 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uc870\uae30\uc5d0 \ub05d\ub098\uace0 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611(\uc911\ub3d9 \uc0b0\uc720\uad6d \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc1a1\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ud574\uc0c1 \ud1b5\ub85c)\uc774 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac00\uc815\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Market Positioning For Lower Rates<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uae34\ucd95 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub69c\ub837\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc218\uce58\uc5d0\uc11c \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uc0ac\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 3.2%\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824 RBA \ubaa9\ud45c \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0 \ub354 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 \uc218\uc694 \ub454\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c 4.4%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7f0 \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd84\uc704\uae30\ub294 2025\ub144\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc73c\ub85c \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uc62e\uaca8\uac14\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c(\ubbf8\ub798 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488) \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc804 \ucd5c\uc18c \ub450 \ucc28\ub840(\uac01 25bp) \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uac8c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\uc81c \ub17c\uc810\uc740 \u201c\uc5b4\ub514\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub9b4 \uac83\uc778\uac00\u201d\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \u201c\uc5b8\uc81c \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558) \uad6d\uba74\uc774 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\ub294\uac00\u201d\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc740 \ud638\uc8fc 3\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44\uc120\ubb3c(YT)(\uad6d\ucc44 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc120\ubb3c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488) \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d \uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9(\uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d \uc2dc \ucc44\uad8c \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5)\uc774 \uc624\ub97c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 RBA\uc758 \ub2e4\uc74c \ud589\ubcf4\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\ub3c4 \uad00\uc804 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub2e4. \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae09\ub4f1\ub77d\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. ASX 200 \uc635\uc158(\uc9c0\uc218\uc758 \ubbf8\ub798 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc740 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 \uc5b4\ub290 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774\ub4e0 \ud070 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \uae30\ub300\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>RBA\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ub098\uc11c\ub294 \ubc18\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uac00 \ub3d9\uacb0\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac08 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654(\uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)\uac00 \ud655\ub300\ub3fc \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec(AUD)\uc5d0 \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec(USD) \ub300\ube44 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub9e4\ub3c4(\uc20f\u00b7\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305)\ub3c4 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4. \ud1b5\ud654\uc120\ubb3c(\ud658\uc728\uc744 \uc120\ubb3c\ub85c \uac70\ub798)\uc774\ub098 AUD\/USD \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc2e4\ud589\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>RBA, \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac 4.35%\ub85c \uc7ac\ucc28 \uc778\uc0c1\u2026\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc CPI 3.2% \ub454\ud654\u00b7\uc2e4\uc5c5 4.4%\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 2025\ub144 \u20182\ucc28\ub840 \uc778\ud558\u2019 \ubca0\ud305. \uad6d\ucc44\uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u00b7AUD \uc57d\uc138 \uc804\ub7b5 \uc8fc\ubaa9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46298\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}