{"id":46211,"date":"2026-05-05T15:54:24","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T15:54:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%eb%a0%88%eb%93%9c%eb%b6%81redbook-%ec%86%8c%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%90%eb%a7%a4-%ec%a7%80%ec%88%98-%ec%a0%84%eb%85%84-%eb%8c%80%eb%b9%84-7-8-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%a0%84%ec%9b%94\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T15:54:24","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T15:54:24","slug":"%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%eb%a0%88%eb%93%9c%eb%b6%81redbook-%ec%86%8c%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%90%eb%a7%a4-%ec%a7%80%ec%88%98-%ec%a0%84%eb%85%84-%eb%8c%80%eb%b9%84-7-8-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%a0%84%ec%9b%94","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%eb%a0%88%eb%93%9c%eb%b6%81redbook-%ec%86%8c%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%90%eb%a7%a4-%ec%a7%80%ec%88%98-%ec%a0%84%eb%85%84-%eb%8c%80%eb%b9%84-7-8-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%a0%84%ec%9b%94\/","title":{"rendered":"\ubbf8\uad6d \ub808\ub4dc\ubd81(Redbook) \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4 \uc9c0\uc218 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 7.8% \uc0c1\uc2b9\u2026\uc804\uc6d4 7.7%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc18c\ud3ed \ud655\ub300"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8\uad6d \ub808\ub4dc\ubd81 \uc9c0\uc218(\uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44)\ub294 5\uc6d4 7.8%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc804 \uc218\uce58\ub294 7.7%\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub808\ub4dc\ubd81 \uc9c0\uc218\uac00 7.8%\ub85c \ub192\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc18c\ube44\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud0c4\ud0c4\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \ubbf8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900)\uac00 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc900\ub2e4. \uc18c\ube44 \uc9c0\ucd9c\uc774 \uac15\ud558\uba74 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \u2018\ub048\uc801\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uc624\ub798 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\u2019\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 3\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 \ubd24\ub358 \ud750\ub984\uacfc \ube44\uc2b7\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \u2018\uace7 \ud1b5\ud654\uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub824 \ub3c8\uc774 \ub3cc\uac8c \ud558\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)\u2019\uac00 \uc62c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ubca0\ud305\uc740 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc810\uac80\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc5f0\uc900 \uc815\ucc45\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ubc88 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub85c \ubcf4\uba74 \uc5ec\ub984(6~8\uc6d4) \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \ud06c\uac8c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c4\ub2e4. \ubd88\uacfc \uba87 \uc8fc \uc804 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc8fc\ub41c \uae30\ub300\uc640 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c4 \ud750\ub984\uc774\ub2e4. \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \uc5f0\uacb0\ub41c \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488\uc744 \uc810\uac80\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\uc778\ub370, \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub2a6\ucdb0\uc9c0\uba74(\uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc774 \ub4a4\ub85c \uac08\uc218\ub85d) \uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud558\ub77d(=\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub354 \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ubc18\uc601)\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. SOFR\ub294 \u2018\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30 \uc790\uae08\uae08\ub9ac\u2019\ub85c, \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ud558\ub8e8\uc9dc\ub9ac \uc548\uc804\ud55c \ub300\ucd9c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58 \ud234(\uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud5a5\ud6c4 FOMC \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ud655\ub960\ub85c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 7\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc 60%\uc5d0\uc11c 45% \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc774 2026\ub144 \ub9d0\uc774\ub098 2027\ub144\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \ubbf8\ub904\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2dc\uac01\ub3c4 \uc0dd\uae34\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc18c\ube44\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d \uac15\ud558\uba74 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc838 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc624\ub97c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc9c0\uc218(VIX\u00b7S&#038;P500 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud55c \u2018\uacf5\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc218\u2019)\ub294 16 \ubd80\uadfc\uc758 \ub0ae\uc740 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc0c1\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc624\ub974\uba74 \uc635\uc158 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9)\uc774 \ube44\uc2f8\uc9c4\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud5e4\uc9c0(\uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc704\ud5d8 \ud68c\ud53c) \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ubd80\uac01\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 SPDR S&#038;P 500 ETF(SPY\u00b7S&#038;P500 \uc9c0\uc218\ub97c \ucd94\uc885\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc) \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\uc218, \ub610\ub294 VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\uc218 \ub4f1\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654(higher-for-longer\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uc624\ub798 \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \ud658\uacbd)\u2019 \uc6b0\ub824\ub85c \uc870\uc815\uc774 \uc62c \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4\uac00 \uac15\ud558\uba74 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uacbd\uae30\uc18c\ube44\uc7ac(\uc18c\ube44\uac00 \ub298 \ub54c \uc2e4\uc801\uc774 \uc88b\uc544\uc9c0\ub294 \uc5c5\uc885) \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc5d0 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\ub77c\ub294 \ud070 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 2025\ub144\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uae08\ub9ac \ubbfc\uac10\ub3c4(\uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 \ud06c\uac8c \ubc18\uc751\ud558\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5)\uac00 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc2e4\uc801 \uac19\uc740 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc694\uc778\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ud06c\uac8c \uc791\uc6a9\ud588\uace0, \ud2b9\ud788 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\uc640 \uc131\uc7a5\uc8fc\uc5d0\uc11c \ub450\ub4dc\ub7ec\uc84c\ub2e4. \ub610 \uc628\ub77c\uc778 \uac80\uc0c9 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc9c0\ub09c \ud55c \ub2ec \ub3d9\uc548 \u2018\uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uc704\ud5d8(recession risk)\u2019 \uac80\uc0c9\uc774 15% \ub298\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc18c\ube44 \uc218\uc694\ub97c \uc2dd\ud788\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub354 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \uae34\ucd95(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd(\ud22c\uc790 \ube44\uc911) \uace0\ub824\uc0ac\ud56d<\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ub808\ub4dc\ubd81 \uc804\ub144\ube44 7.8%\ub85c \uc18c\ube44 \ud0c4\ud0c4\u2026\uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \u2018\uc5ec\ub984 \ubca0\ud305\u2019 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9b0\ub2e4. \ub048\uc801\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808 \uc6b0\ub824\uc5d0 SOFR\u00b7\ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58 \uc7ac\uc870\uc815, VIX\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694 \ud655\ub300 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131. \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654 \ubcc0\uc218.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46211","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46211"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46211\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}