{"id":46160,"date":"2026-05-05T03:54:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T03:54:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/4%ec%9b%94-%ec%95%84%eb%a5%b4%ed%97%a8%ed%8b%b0%eb%82%98-%ec%a0%84%ec%9b%94-%eb%8c%80%eb%b9%84-%ec%84%b8%ec%88%98-16071%ec%96%b5%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-17%ec%96%b5%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%ea%b8%89%ea%b0%90\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T03:54:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T03:54:15","slug":"4%ec%9b%94-%ec%95%84%eb%a5%b4%ed%97%a8%ed%8b%b0%eb%82%98-%ec%a0%84%ec%9b%94-%eb%8c%80%eb%b9%84-%ec%84%b8%ec%88%98-16071%ec%96%b5%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-17%ec%96%b5%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%ea%b8%89%ea%b0%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/4%ec%9b%94-%ec%95%84%eb%a5%b4%ed%97%a8%ed%8b%b0%eb%82%98-%ec%a0%84%ec%9b%94-%eb%8c%80%eb%b9%84-%ec%84%b8%ec%88%98-16071%ec%96%b5%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-17%ec%96%b5%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%ea%b8%89%ea%b0%90\/","title":{"rendered":"4\uc6d4 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 \uc138\uc218, 1,6071\uc5b5\uc5d0\uc11c 17\uc5b5\uc73c\ub85c \uae09\uac10"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 4\uc6d4 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 \uc138\uc218(\uc870\uc138\uc218\uc785)\ub294 17B(170\uc5b5)\ub85c, \uc9c1\uc804 \uae30\uac04\uc758 16071B(1\uacbd 6,0710\uc5b5)\uc640 \ube44\uad50\ud574 \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 \uac10\uc18c\ub97c \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ubc88 \uc790\ub8cc\ub294 4\uc6d4 \uc138\uc218\uac00 16071B\uc5d0\uc11c 17B\ub85c \ubcc0\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\ub9cc \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uba70, \ucd94\uac00\uc801\uc778 \uc138\ubd80 \ub0b4\uc5ed\uc774\ub098 \ubc30\uacbd \uc124\uba85\uc740 \uc5c6\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>4\uc6d4 \uc138\uc218\ub294 16\uc870 \ud398\uc18c(=16T, trillion) \uc774\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c 170\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\ub85c \uae09\uac10\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc774\uace0 \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \uc704\uae30 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158)\uc774 \uc5f0\uc728 \ud658\uc0b0 \uae30\uc900 410%\ub85c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc774\ub77c\uba74, \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \ud398\uc18c(ARS)\uc758 \ud604\ubb3c \ubc0f \uc120\ubb3c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ud3c9\uac00\uc808\ud558(\ud1b5\ud654\uac00\uce58 \ud558\ub77d)\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \ud604\ubb3c(spot)\uc740 \u2018\uc989\uc2dc \uacb0\uc81c\ub418\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\u2019, \uc120\ubb3c(futures)\uc740 \u2018\ubbf8\ub798 \uc77c\uc815 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314\uae30\ub85c \uc57d\uc18d\ud55c \uacc4\uc57d\u2019\uc774\ub2e4. \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put option)\uc740 \u2018\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac\u2019\ub85c, \ud1b5\ud654\uac00\uce58\uac00 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c8 \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacf5\ub9e4\ub3c4(short)\ub294 \u2018\ube4c\ub824\uc11c \ud310 \ub4a4 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc0ac\uc11c \uac1a\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\u2019\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc138\uc218 \ubd80\uc871\uc740 \uad6d\uac00\ucc44\ubb34 \ub514\ud3f4\ud2b8(sovereign debt default, \uad6d\uac00\uac00 \ube5a\uc744 \uc81c\ub54c \uac1a\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669) \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \ub192\uc778\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 \uc911\ubc18 \uad6d\uc81c\ud1b5\ud654\uae30\uae08(IMF)\uacfc\uc758 \ud611\uc0c1\uc774 \uae34\uc7a5 \uad6d\uba74\uc774\uc5c8\ub358 \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc758 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \uc7ac\ud604\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc598\uae30\ub2e4. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc21c\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561(net reserves, \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc5d0\uc11c \uac1a\uc544\uc57c \ud560 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc678\ud654\ubd80\ucc44 \ub4f1\uc744 \ube80 \u2018\uc2e4\uc9c8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc4f8 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\u2019)\uc774 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc 20\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac14\ub2e4\ub294 \ubcf4\ub3c4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uac10\uc548\ud558\uba74, \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc0c1\ud658 \uc5ec\ub825\uc740 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \uc2e0\uc6a9\ubd80\ub3c4\uc2a4\uc651(CDS) \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub2e8\uae30\uac04 \uae09\ub4f1\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. CDS\ub294 \u2018\uad6d\uac00\ub098 \uae30\uc5c5\uc774 \ubd80\ub3c4 \ub098\uba74 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ubcf4\uc804\ud574\uc8fc\ub294 \ubcf4\ud5d8 \uc131\uaca9\uc758 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488\u2019\uc774\uba70, \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \u2018\ubd80\ub3c4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud3c9\uac00\u2019\ub97c \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \ub300\ud45c \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\uc778 \uba54\ub974\ubc1c(Merval)\uc740 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 40% \uc774\uc0c1 \ud558\ub77d\ud55c \ubc14 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacbd\uae30 \uc704\ucd95\uc774 \uc2ec\ud574\uc9c0\uba74 \ucd94\uac00 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uc218\uc120\ubb3c(index futures, \u2018\uc9c0\uc218 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uae30\ucd08\ub85c \ud55c \uc120\ubb3c\u2019)\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \ud558\ub77d \ubca0\ud305\uc774\ub098, \uc8fc\uc694 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc(ETF)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money, \u2018\ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \ud589\uc0ac \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uba40\uc5b4 \ub2f9\uc7a5 \uc774\uc775 \uad6c\uac04\uc774 \uc544\ub2cc\u2019) \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ub300\uc751\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc190\uc2e4 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc635\uc158 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9) \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774 \ud2b9\uc9d5\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[\uc18d\ubcf4] \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 4\uc6d4 \uc138\uc218 1\uacbd6,071B\u219217B \u2018\uae09\uac10\u2019\u2026\uc778\ud50c\ub808 410%\u00b7\uc21c\uc678\ud658 20\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud558\ud68c \uacb9\uce58\uba74 \ud398\uc18c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u00b7\ub514\ud3f4\ud2b8 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\u00b7CDS \uae09\ub4f1 \uc6b0\ub824, \uc8fc\uc2dd \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ubc29.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46160","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46160","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46160"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46160\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46160"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46160"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46160"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}