{"id":46133,"date":"2026-05-04T21:27:23","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T21:27:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8%eb%93%a4-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-9%ec%9b%94%ea%b9%8c%ec%a7%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d\/"},"modified":"2026-05-04T21:27:23","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T21:27:23","slug":"td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8%eb%93%a4-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-9%ec%9b%94%ea%b9%8c%ec%a7%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8%eb%93%a4-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-9%ec%9b%94%ea%b9%8c%ec%a7%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d\/","title":{"rendered":"TD\uc99d\uad8c \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub4e4, \uc5f0\uc900 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd\u2026\uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1\u00b7\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ucd94\uc774 \uc8fc\uc2dc"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc758 \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc624\uc2a4\uce74 \ubb34\ub1e8\uc2a4\uc640 \uc5d8\ub9ac \ub2c8\ub974\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900)\uac00 \uc774\ub780 \uad00\ub828 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uace0 \ubb3c\uac00 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc810\uac80\ud558\ub294 \ub3d9\uc548 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uace0, \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815 \ud68c\uc758\uccb4) \ub0b4\ubd80 \uc758\uacac \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \ucee4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc9c0\uc5f0\ub418\uba70 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac(\ubbf8\uad6d \uc740\ud589 \uac04 \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30 \uc790\uae08 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac)\uac00 \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub610\ud55c \uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ud655\ub2f5\uc744 \ud53c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294 \ud55c\ud3b8, \u2018\ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \uc8fc\ub294 \uc548\ub0b4)\u2019\ub97c \ud55c\ucabd \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774 \uc544\ub2cc \u2018\uc591\ubc29\ud5a5(\uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc778\uc0c1\u00b7\uc778\ud558 \ubaa8\ub450 \uac00\ub2a5\ud568\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac)\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\uafb8\ub294 \ub17c\uc758\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ud588\ub2e4. 4\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uc5ed \uc5f0\uc740 \ucd1d\uc7ac 3\uba85\uc774 \ubc18\ub300 \uc758\uacac\uc744 \ub0b4\uba70 \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ucc2c\uc131\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc131\uba85\uc11c \ubb38\uad6c \uc870\uc815\ubd80\ud130 \uc2dc\uc791\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Rates Outlook And Market Positioning<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ub4e4\uc740 2026\ub144\uc5d0 \ucd1d 50bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\ud558, 2027\ub144 3\uc6d4 \ucd94\uac00 25bp \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610 \ub2e4\ub978 \uacbd\ub85c\ub85c\ub294 9\uc6d4\uacfc 12\uc6d4 \uac01\uac01 25bp\uc529 \ucd1d 50bp \uc778\ud558, 2027\ub144 3\uc6d4 25bp \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ucd5c\uc885 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 3.00%\ub85c \ub9c8\ubb34\ub9ac\ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>9\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ub4f1 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ub354 \ub290\uc2a8\ud558\uac8c \ud568)\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uac00\ub824\uba74 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654(\ub192\uc740 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \ub354 \ub0ae\uace0 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\uc544\uac10)\ub418\uace0 \uc774\ub780 \ubcc0\uc218\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc774\uc5b4\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ub274\uc695 \uc5f0\uc740\uc758 \uc874 \uc70c\ub9ac\uc5c4\uc2a4 \ucd1d\uc7ac\uc758 \uacf5\uac1c \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc5d0\uc11c \uc131\uba85\uc11c \ubb38\uad6c \ubcc0\uacbd \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc5b8\uae09\uc774 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uc9c4\ud589 \uc911\uc778 \uc774\ub780 \uad00\ub828 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294 \ub3d9\uc548 \ucd5c\uc18c 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. 4\uc6d4 CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uad6c\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.8%\uc758 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00(\uc804\uccb4 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ud569\uce5c \ub300\ud45c \ubb3c\uac00)\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc798 \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74\uc11c, \ub354 \ube60\ub978 \ub454\ud654\ub97c \uae30\ub300\ud588\ub358 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \ub180\ub77c\uac8c \ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \uc62c\uc5ec\ub984 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc7ac\uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7f0 \uc2e0\uc911\ub860\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ubc30\uacbd\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uc555\ub825\uc774\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 \ucd08\uae30 \ucda9\uaca9 \uc774\ud6c4 \uad6d\uc81c\uc720\uac00\uac00 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 105\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud574 \uc654\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uc811 \ubc18\uc601\ub3fc \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uc6b4\uc6a9\uc744 \ub354 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. 2022\ub144\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc0ac\uac74\uc73c\ub85c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc8fc\uc694 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub354 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\ub358 \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Trading Implications For Volatility And Curves<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \uc5ec\ub984\ubb3c SOFR(\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \uc775\uc77c\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 \ub2f4\ubcf4 \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \ub300\ud45c\uc801\uc778 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac) \uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc9c0\ub098\uce58\uac8c \u2018\ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc778)\u2019\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654(higher for longer)\u2019\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 2026\ub144 3\ubd84\uae30 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c \uacc4\uc57d\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc131\uae09\ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub418\ub3cc\ub824 \ubc18\uc601(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ub0ae\ucdb0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub2f4\ub294 \uac83)\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ucabd\uc5d0 \uac70\ub294 \uac70\ub798\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>4\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c 3\uba85\uc758 \ubc18\ub300 \ud45c\ub85c \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub09c FOMC \ub0b4\ubd80\uc758 \ud070 \uc758\uacac \ucc28\uc774\ub3c4 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b4\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \ucc28\ub840 \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \u2018\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9b4\uc9c0\u2019\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\ub300)\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(\uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud070 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5) \uac19\uc740 \uc218\ub2e8\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774, \uc608\uc0c1 \ubc16\uc758 \uc131\uba85\uc11c \ubcc0\ud654 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc778\ub0b4\uc2ec\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uba74 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \ubb36\uc5ec \uc788\ub294 \ubc18\uba74 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uba70 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120\uc774 \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654(\uc7a5\u00b7\ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \ucc28\uac00 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e6)\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. 2\ub144\ubb3c\uacfc 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac \ucc28\uac00 \ub354 \ucd95\uc18c\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \u2018\uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120 \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654 \uac70\ub798\u2019 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc\uc5d0\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 \uc70c\ub9ac\uc5c4\uc2a4 \ucd1d\uc7ac \ub4f1\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ubc1c\uc5b8(\uae34\ucd95\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc778 \ubc1c\uc5b8)\uc774 \ub098\uc624\ub294\uc9c0 \ud655\uc778\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u2019 \uacbd\uace0\ub4f1\u2026TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc774\ub780 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ubc1c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc640 FOMC \uc774\uacac \ud0d3\uc5d0 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub3d9\uacb0, \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc\uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4 \uc591\ubc29\ud5a5 \uc804\ud658 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uac70\ub860\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46133"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46133\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46133"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}